There has been a lot of discussion this week when it comes to the quarterback position in the NFL Draft and specifically QB1. Earlier in the week, ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky went on air to say that Ty Simpson was the best quarterback in the class.
Orlovsky used to be, and generally still is, seen as a respected voice in sports media. However, in recent years, he’s certainly fallen into the current sports media landscape ‘hot take’ trap more than he did at the beginning of his analyst career. That’s why when Orlovsky called Simpson the best quarterback in the class ahead of Mendoza, especially using ‘big games’ as the reasoning, it was seen as just another hot take.
It could be true that this was partially another contrarian ’hot take’ put out there by Orlovsky to generate clicks and attention. Is it contrarian for the sake of being contrarian? At the same time, when it comes to these cases, there may also be more ‘faux outrage’ by viewers than necessary.
Now, Orlovsky’s take on Ty Simpson and Fernando Mendoza certainly deviates from the norm. Still, it’s also not some outlandish take deserving of the backlash that it’s gotten. A serious case could be made that the pre-draft consensus QB1 hasn’t been the best quarterback in most draft classes.
Looking at the consensus big boards and top quarterback drafted from the past 10 years:
- 2025: Cam Ward / Cam Ward
- 2024: Caleb Williams / Caleb Williams
- 2023: Bryce Young / Bryce Young
- 2022: Malik Willis / Kenny Pickett
- 2021: Trevor Lawrence / Trevor Lawrence
- 2020: Joe Burrow / Joe Burrow
- 2019: Kyler Murray / Kyler Murray
- 2018: Sam Darnold / Baker Mayfield
- 2017: Mitchell Trubisky / Mitchell Trubisky
- 2016: Jared Goff / Jared Goff
Last season, Ward was the consensus top quarterback and was drafted first overall by the Tennessee Titans. However, Tyler Shough ended second in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting and Jaxson Dart was fourth. Caleb Williams had a good second year, but Drake Maye just led the Patriots to the Super Bowl and Jayden Daniels looked very impressive as a rookie. Five of the other eight quarterbacks aren’t on the same team that drafted them.
There are obviously a lot of reasons for why that is. Had Sam Darnold entered a better situation as a rookie, is he thought of differently than he is currently? What if Caleb Williams had started his career with Ben Johnson? Situation matters for quarterbacks almost more than any other position. Too often, quarterbacks are set up to fail because of poor team infrastructure whether it’s a bad head coach or offensive situation not ready for a rookie quarterback.
Bringing this back to Ty Simpson and the Los Angeles Rams to an extent, Simpson may be the consensus QB2 behind Fernando Mendoza, but which quarterback is going to be set up more to succeed? The Las Vegas Raiders are set up better than they have been in previous years, but they still have a first-time head coach and their best wide receiver is a tight end. Jack Bech and Tre Tucker are the Raiders’ top wide receivers. Ashton Jeanty was an exciting prospect, but he averaged just 3.7 yards and his 53.4 percent stuff-rate was the highest in the NFL. Mendoza is also going to be expected to start right away. That’s not to say that Mendoza can’t or won’t succeed, but a lot more will be asked of him.
Now, let’s say the Rams are the team that selected Ty Simpson. Simpson will be entering an offensive infrastructure with Sean McVay as the head coach, a top-three wide receiver in Puka Nacua, and arguably the best running back duo in the NFL. That’s not to mention that Simpson would get the benefit of sitting behind Stafford for at least a year and wouldn’t need to start right away. The experience that Simpson is lacking, he would get in mental reps and live reps in practice.
Between those two situations, which quarterback is best set up to succeed. This isn’t arguing necessarily which one is better from a talent perspective. However, in five years, which quarterback would likely be seen as the QB1 by the media?
This isn’t advocating for the Rams to take Simpson even if I do believe that he is a scheme fit. However, it is to say that the label of QB1 doesn’t necessarily matter as much as it’s made out to be for the sake of pre-draft discourse. When it comes to the quarterback position, it is almost always better to take one in the first round and definitely before round three. The hit-rate to find a starter after round three drops significantly outside of a few exceptions. When it comes to drafting a quarterback, the top priorities when it comes to that player’s success are that they fit the offense and that they are entering a strong offensive infrastructure.
If the Rams are looking for a young quarterback post-Stafford, they aren’t going to get the consensus QB1 in Fernando Mendoza. However, that doesn’t mean that they still can’t find the eventual best quarterback in the draft.
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