For the better part of the last few years, the Edmonton Oilers have been Canada’s best chance to finally win another Stanley Cup.
They came within one win in 2024, returned to the Stanley Cup Final the following year, and have spent the better part of the past decade getting closer than any Canadian team has since Vancouver in 2011. There is still plenty of reason to believe they can get back there.
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They may not have much longer as Canada’s best chance.
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The Montreal Canadiens are well ahead of schedule, and after reaching the Eastern Conference Final last season, you can’t call what they’re doing a rebuild anymore. They already have a good NHL team, most of their best players are young, and there is still another group coming behind them.
Montreal has drafted extraordinarily well.
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Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield are established stars. Juraj Slafkovsky is 22, Ivan Demidov is 20, and Lane Hutson has already become one of the best young defencemen in the league. Noah Dobson gives Montreal another high-end defenceman, while Jakub Dobes and Jacob Fowler give the Canadiens two young goaltenders who could be part of the organization for a long time.
Michael Hage is still at Michigan, and the Canadiens haven’t emptied Laval to build the team that’s already winning playoff rounds.
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That’s a pretty good situation to be in after making a conference final.
Edmonton’s situation is a little different.
The Oilers have the better players at the top of their roster. Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, Evan Bouchard and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, to name a few. Matt Savoie and Isaac Howard have given the Oilers some much-needed younger talent.
The difference is that most of Edmonton’s best players are already what they’re going to be.
McDavid isn’t a prospect who might eventually become a superstar. Draisaitl isn’t still developing into one of the best centres in hockey. Hyman and Nugent-Hopkins are established veterans.
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The Oilers are built to win now because they have to be.
Montreal has already become a contender while several of its most important players are still developing. Demidov should be better in two years than he is today. Slafkovsky should be better. Fowler hasn’t reached his prime, Hage hasn’t reached the NHL, and there are still players in Laval who could eventually become part of the Canadiens’ lineup.
They don’t need all of them to work out, either.
Montreal has enough young players and prospects that some can miss and the organization will still be in good shape. If Hughes decides the Canadiens need another established player instead, he has the draft picks and prospects available to go get one.
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That’s what Edmonton doesn’t have anymore.
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Teams trying to win the Stanley Cup, as the Oilers have been for years, don’t keep every draft pick and prospect. They trade them for players who can help immediately.
Eventually, those trades leave the organization with less to work with.
The Oilers don’t have a prospect pool in Bakersfield that compares with what Montreal has coming through Laval, and they don’t have the same collection of draft picks available if another major piece becomes available. Edmonton can still improve its roster, but Bowman doesn’t have the same margin for error that Hughes does.
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Montreal’s contracts help, too.
The Canadiens haven’t had to pay their young core like a group that has already reached its ceiling. Their biggest contracts remain manageable relative to league-wide salary levels, and much of the core is under team control for years. That lets Hughes keep adding as the young players improve.
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Martin St. Louis has been behind the bench through much of the rebuild and has developed alongside many of the players now turning Montreal into a contender. After taking such a young team to the conference final, it isn’t difficult to see a Coach of the Year award in his future.
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Hughes could eventually have a GM of the Year award waiting for him as well.
The Canadiens have rebuilt quickly without giving up the things rebuilding teams are supposed to accumulate. They still have prospects. They still have picks. They have young players on the NHL roster who haven’t reached their primes, and they already know the group can win in the playoffs.
Edmonton knows that too, of course.
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McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman, Nugent-Hopkins and Bouchard have been through long playoff runs together. They’ve played in Stanley Cup Finals, dealt with the pressure that comes with them and come about as close to winning as a team can without actually doing it.
Montreal hasn’t done that yet.
For now, that experience and the presence of McDavid and Draisaitl are enough to keep Edmonton near the front of the Canadian contenders. The Oilers don’t need to be younger than Montreal or have a better prospect pool to win four playoff rounds this season. But they can’t keep assuming there will always be another one.
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Montreal’s best years should still be ahead of it. Edmonton’s best opportunity may be the one it has right now.
The Canadiens were the last Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup in 1993. For more than three decades, every contender north of the border has tried to become the team that finally follows them.
Edmonton has come closer than anybody, but if can’t finish it in the coming years, the Canadiens may not leave them much longer to try.
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