Since the return of The Chase was announced in January, the conventional wisdom about making a title run has been consistent.
Drivers have unwaveringly predicted that the champion will come from the top six in the NASCAR Cup Series points standings after 26 races.
Advertisement
Why has that become the overwhelming narrative?
RELATED: How The Chase format works | Chase check-in after Iowa
“They’re talking about it because that’s right,” Racing Insights managing director Russell Wenrich said. “It’s 85% of the time (in simulations) that the top six is where the champion came from, so obviously these teams have done some of their own research, too.”
On the latest episode of the “Hauler Talk” podcast, Wenrich explained how the Racing Insights staff ran more than 25,000 simulations of the 10-race championship format.
Instead of looking at how The Chase would have unfolded in past seasons (given that those results were based on the prior playoff structures), Wenrich said predictive modeling (based on drivers’ historical performances at each track) was used to determine Chase outcomes.
Advertisement
“You just run that data through all these different types of data for predicting where they’re going to finish,” Wenrich said. “You could run that over and over again, and 25,000 times is what we did for this one.”
In more than 35% of the Racing Insights models, the champion was the top seed, and the top three seeds accounted for 69% of the simulated titles. In 70% of the simulations, the champion also scored the most points in the final 10 races.
The modeling also helped with validating an extra 15 points for a race win and creating the margins in the reset Chase standings.
Wenrich described it as “exciting and terrifying” to play a major role in The Chase.
Advertisement
“It was a fun project to be part of,” Wenrich said. “Trying to see it out, though, is terrifying, especially when (Tyler) Reddick is leading by 100 points after 10 races, and you think, ‘Maybe that extra 15-point swing for the winner is too many.’ So I think it’s played out very well. We want people that win races to be really high up in the points.
“It’s really cool to see how it played out. I think it’s been well-received by everybody. … This has the best chance of determining who the best driver is and the most deserving champion. And that was the No. 1 goal when we started.”
Other topics covered by NASCAR vice president of racing communications Mike Forde and senior director of racing communications Amanda Ellis during the 66th episode of “Hauler Talk,” which explores competition issues in NASCAR:
— What the penalty might have been if Denny Hamlin’s team had changed brake pads before the race at Iowa Speedway.
Advertisement
— Why Ryan Blaney had a close call with a camera exiting the pits.
— How Corey Heim’s two victories are classified for rookie status.
Click on the embed below to listen or search for “Hauler Talk” wherever you download podcasts to hear it on your phone, tablet or mobile device.
Nate Ryan has written about NASCAR since 1996 while working at the San Bernardino Sun, Richmond Times-Dispatch, USA Today Co. and, for the past 10 years, at NBC Sports Digital. He is a contributor to the “Hauler Talk” show on the NASCAR Podcast Network. He has also covered various other motorsports, including the IndyCar and IMSA series.
Read the full article here