Folks, the vibes are bad. The Brewers, after a wonderful start, have lost six in a row. The bullpen, an expected strength, is hanging on by a thread, and there are urgent questions about the closer’s role. Three of the team’s five best hitters are on the shelf, with no returns expected for at least a couple of weeks. It’s not great! (Good vibes around Jackie Robinson, though—it’s Jackie Robinson day today, so raise your glass to one of the great heroes of 20th century America.)
There is one thing that would cure the panic that is beginning to seep into parts of the fanbase: a few wins. Milwaukee will look to end their brutal losing streak tonight (and to keep their record from going under .500), but it’s not going to be a cakewalk. In the second game of their three-game set with the reigning American League champs, the Brewers will send Chad Patrick to the mound to face off with one of the highest paid pitchers in the league, Dylan Cease.
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Cease, who signed a seven-year, $210 million deal with the Blue Jays as a free agent this offseason, has had an enigmatic career. At his best, he’s been one of the very best pitchers alive, as evidenced by his 2022 season, when as a member of the White Sox he pitched to a 2.20 ERA, led the American League in bWAR, and finished second in Cy Young voting. But Cease has also had some clunkers; over the past four seasons, his ERA+ has been 180, 97, 118, and 94.
There is no question about Cease’s ability, though. He’s led his league in strikeouts per nine innings twice in the last five years, and at 11.0 per nine for his career, he is third among 47 active pitchers with at least 1,000 innings pitched in career K/9, behind only two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell and future Hall of Famer Chris Sale. Cease is off to an excellent star: in three appearances spanning 14 2/3 innings, he has a 2.45 ERA and 1.66 FIP, and while his walks are up, he’s also struck out 26 batters in 14.2 innings, a Mason-Miller-esque rate of 16 per nine innings.
The Brewers will counter with Chad Patrick. He’s got a shiny 0.73 ERA of his own, but he’s definitely been fortunate—the sequencing coach is earning his pay, you might say, as it relates to Patrick. Patrick’s strikeouts are way down (he has only seven in 12 1/3 innings) and his walks are up (3.6 per nine, compared to 3.0 last season), giving him a 1950s-esque 1.40 K:BB ratio. Brewers fans will be pleased as long as the results are there, but the difference between Patrick’s ERA and FIP is higher than Freddy Peralta’s career ERA, so it would be nice to see some encouraging signs under the hood, so to speak.
Milwaukee will field a similar lineup to last night, with the exception of Brandon Lockridge (who finished last night’s game but didn’t start it), who is in for Luis Matos in left field. Gary Sánchez will also do the catching tonight, swapping roles with William Contreras, who will be the DH.
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First pitch is at 6:40 p.m. on Brewers TV and the Brewers Radio Network.
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