Super Bowl props! We all love ’em as props help make every (relative) small moment feel larger than life in the big game. And rather than do a straight preview of the Philadelphia Eagles-Kansas City Chiefs matchup in Super Bowl LIX, I wanted to find the key aspects that have a chance to swing the game, but through the lens of those tasty, tasty prop wagers.
So, here are some of my favorite bettable plays (all via BetMGM) for Sunday’s game. And how I arrived at each wager.
(All data via NextGenStats and TruMedia, unless otherwise noted. All relevant Chiefs season-long data does not include Week 18.)
Saquon Barkley over 21.5 rush attempts (-130)
Saquon Barkley under 23.5 yards longest rush (+105)
I have stayed away from Barkley’s total yard wagers because while he is going to get steady action (the Eagles easily led the NFL this season in early down run rate with a 55.3% clip) throughout the game, and while the Chiefs can get peppered on the ground, they actually do a great job of tackling and limiting big plays.
This season, including the playoffs, the Chiefs have allowed the sixth-lowest rate of explosive runs in the NFL and have the fewest missed tackles among any defense.
(On a related note, the Eagles have the second-fewest missed tackles this season. Tackling! Fundamentals! They matter!)
Defending the Eagles’ offensive line and Barkley is like basketball stoppers defending premier scorers in the NBA: they are going to get theirs, but the defenders’ goal is to try and make it as difficult and inefficient as they can. This brings me to Barkley’s rushing attempts total. Even without the juiciest number in the world, Barkley is going to have a steady diet of carries in this game as the Eagles try to poke holes in the Chiefs’ defense and catch K.C. in an exotic defensive call; 21.5 is a lot but Barkley will be the main driving force for the Eagles this game, just like he’s been all season.
The under longest rush wager is from a similar line of thinking. While Barkley is going to rip of some double-digit yard gains, I think the Chiefs are going to do their damndest to limit the damage whenever he gets loose. Remember how well they can tackle! The Chiefs also defend the Eagles’ main run concepts at an above-average to even good level, too. The Eagles pull their offensive linemen as much as anybody, using pullers at the second-highest clip in the NFL this season and averaging an explosive rush on over 20% of those runs. (The Eagles have 26 explosive runs this season on just the runs using pullers. The Chiefs have 29 explosive runs this season total.) The Chiefs, though, have allowed only two explosive runs this season on concepts using pullers and fewer than 4 yards per carry (3.8) on those runs.
This is a classic strength versus strength in the run game. And I don’t think the Eagles are going to shy away from feeding Barkley, but the Chiefs are going to do their best to limit the damage and that’s what has me leaning toward the volume of touches.
Chiefs’ first drive outcome: Touchdown (+190)
Chiefs’ 1st quarter -0.5 (+135)
Here are the results of the Chiefs’ opening drives against Vic Fangio-coached defenses since Patrick Mahomes became their starting quarterback:
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2023 Week 9: 7 plays, 75 yards, TD
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2023 Wild card: 9 plays, 69 yards, TD
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2021 Week 13: 12 plays, 72 yards, TD
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2021 Week 18: 17 plays, 91 yards, TD
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2020 Week 7: 8 plays, 68 yards, TD
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2020 Week 13: 5 plays, 26 yards, Punt
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2019 Week 7: 8 plays, 75 yards, TD
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2019 Week 15: 4 plays, 79 yards, TD
Seven touchdowns on eight drives is a pretty good rate! And Andy Reid has the boost effect of a bye week to help him game plan.
Fangio is an outstanding coach in his own right and this Eagles defense is better than any of those previously on the list. But the combination of experience against this defensive scheme, a bye week and, oh ya, Mahomes, has me liking the plus-money you can get on the Chiefs starting the game hot and trying to get the Eagles into a negative game script (much easier said than done).
The shortest drive among that grouping, the four-play scoring drive in Week 15 of 2019, was capped off by a designed shot play to Tyreek Hill off of a heavy protected play-action concept as soon as the Chiefs passed midfield. This leads me to my next prop:
Marquise Brown over 18.5 yards longest reception (-115)
While the Chiefs have been creating more explosive plays once the playoffs started, it’s still an offense that prefers to exhaust defenses with short, efficient gains on the ground and through the air. The Eagles limit explosive plays as well as anyone and are the second-best tackling team behind the Chiefs. So I don’t think a short crossing route is going to pop for a big gain, but that 2019 Hill touchdown and Matthew Stafford’s forays down the field in the divisional round vs. Philly have me thinking that Reid and the Chiefs might have something in store to create breathing room against this stifling defense.
The beneficiary of the Mahomes deep pass could be Xavier Worthy or even the unsinkable Justin Watson, so if you want to sprinkle something on their numbers I don’t blame you. I think Brown will end up getting the design because of his deep ball tracking skills and Mahomes’ growing trust in him.
JuJu Smith-Shuster over 13.5 receiving yards (-140)
JuJu Smith-Shuster over 1.5 receptions (-125)
Noah Gray over 1.5 receptions (+110)
The Chiefs might not have that true No. 1 receiver, but Mahomes has no qualms in spreading around the football. Mahomes targets the slot and tight ends at a higher rate than usual when facing Fangio-coached defenses. That matches the Chiefs’ receiving group. Look at Mahomes’ target map against Fangio defenses and the red spots over the middle of the field against all of those zone coverages:
Getting the Eagles to match with their base defense by trotting out more tight ends (and trying to get linebacker Oren Burks on an island), or at least declaring their intent of what they want to stop, could lead to plenty of snaps for Gray and thus opportunities for targets. A couple of checkdowns or underneath throws over the middle and that’s all Gray needs. Same with Smith-Shuster. While the Chiefs have been spreading around their slot snaps, Smith-Shuster is there for his auxiliary blocking skills and as a big-bodied underneath safety net for Mahomes. Against a defense that limits explosive plays and forces QBs to take their “safe” options, I see Smith-Shuster getting a chance to move the chains a couple of times, particularly with his routes being more stationary to find soft spots in zones as opposed to something on the move.
Dallas Goedert over 51.5 receiving yards (-110)
This line has been bet up from 46.5 receiving yards, so hopefully you can get it before it creeps even higher. Goedert is a good player and also has the benefit of not having to go against Trent McDuffie at all in this game. (Which is why it’s hard for me to pick whether I like DeVonta Smith or A.J. Brown props. Though I like Brown as an anytime touchdown scorer at +170.)
The Chiefs also have been weak against tight end targets this season, ranking 28th in success rate (allowing 58.3% of targets to be successful gains) and 32nd in yards per tight end target (at 8.7 yards!). Goedert’s reception line is at 4.5 with a heavy vig on the over. So I’m going with yards, with Jalen Hurts perhaps taking advantage of Goedert’s routes working away from the Chiefs’ blitz coverages a few times to hit a big play or two and the total.
Jalen Hurts 0.5 INT (+135)
Speaking of Hurts against the blitz, Steve Spagnuolo has had two weeks to get into his lab and cook up some diabolical stuff on passing downs (if the Chiefs can survive the onslaught of Saquon Barkley on the early downs). The Chiefs can lean into man blitzes or zone blitzes whenever they choose to. And zone blitzes is how I think Spagnuolo will try and fool Hurts and get him to make a mistake.
The Chiefs registered a pressure rate of 50.9% on zone blitzes this season (highest rate in the NFL) and have allowed the second-fewest yards per attempt (6.1 yards/attempt). Hurts has been much improved against the blitz this season, but still has a vulnerability against zone blitzes. He took a sack on over 20% of his dropbacks when facing zone blitzes this season. That’s a comically high rate that had me double-checking the data.
Hurts ranked 22nd in net yards per attempt against zone blitzes and was 20th in explosive pass rate. He prefers to either scramble (which he also has the highest rate in) or attack underneath (19th in air yards per attempt).
If I noticed this, then certainly Spagnuolo and the Chiefs’ defensive staff have as well. Look for a zone blitz (or a simulated zone blitz that rushes only four but gets Hurts to throw a hot route) with the Chiefs trying to bait a throw into a waiting defender.
With the possibility of there being a low quantity of drives in this game, one singular turnover can be enormous in deciding this game. Look for the Chiefs to try and create that big moment with a well-timed blitz.
Under 49.5
OK, not exactly a prop. But I like the under in this game because of both defenses’ ability to limit explosive plays and thus create the need for more methodical drives.
Both of these offenses rank first and second in the amount of 10+ play drives this season. I think this game might end up feeling quick because of that combination of efficiency and sound defensive play. That will lead to long drives (which might not always end up in touchdowns) and fewer drives overall.
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