There’s always that player that nobody had on their bingo card for an early-season glow-up.
Last year, Shayne Gostisbehere and Evan Rodrigues came flying out of the gate with their new teams at a more than point-per-game pace through their first handful of games. Neither were foreshadowing unexpected breakout seasons.
This year’s no exception, as players with long injury histories, unfriendly aging curves and never-before-seen numbers are exploding through the first few games of this young season.
The New Jersey Devils’ Paul Cotter and Stefan Noesen have been the poster boys this year, combining for 16 points in the Devils’ bottom six. Those are the obviously unsustainable performances, but who else might experience a fall back to earth?
Here are the five biggest candidates for regression after the first two weeks of NHL action:
Evgeni Malkin, C, Pittsburgh Penguins
In a moment reminiscent of his days as an Art Ross and MVP candidate, Malkin sat all alone as the league’s points leader on Oct. 17.
Malkin also had a hot start last season, posting nine points in his first six games. But despite playing all 82 games, he lost that jump in his step and finished with 67 points.
He’s still the second-line center most teams would love to have, but he’s no longer the elite pivot that used to go shot-for-shot with Sidney Crosby. After blowing up against the sagging Buffalo Sabres to earn his 500th career goal, Malkin has gone the last four games without a point.
To boot, nine of his 11 points have come against teams that missed the playoffs in 2023-24.
Mark Stone, RW, Vegas Golden Knights
After numerous long-term, career-threatening injuries, many believed Stone’s days as an elite first-line winger were coming to an end.
He’s only managed to play 144 games since 2021-22, but he’s seemingly back with a vengeance with 14 points through eight games. He’s found great chemistry with Jack Eichel and Ivan Barbashev, and he’s undoubtedly been every bit the captain who led Vegas to the Cup two seasons ago.
However, his 72.4 on-ice goal percentage, per moneypuck.com, is certainly due to drop along with his linemates.
Also, the injury history is legitimately scary, with two surgeries being done on his back in nine months. Stone has never played a full 82-game season, and that should probably be expected this time around as well, especially with the winger turning 32 last May.
Tom Wilson, RW, Washington Capitals
With all eyes on Alex Ovechkin’s chase for the all-time goal record, nobody foresaw Wilson opening the season with goals in four straight games. He became just the fourth player in franchise history to do so.
It’s also going to be impossible to sustain, even to a lesser degree. Wilson currently sits third in the NHL in goals above expected (3.2), per moneypuck.com, scoring at a big 35.7 percent shooting rate. Also, one of his goals came during 3-on-3 overtime.
He’s also a big injury risk and hasn’t scored 20 goals since 2021-22.
Jonathan Huberdeau, LW, Calgary Flames
The Calgary Flames are enjoying an early-season resurgence, and Huberdeau’s re-emergence as an offensive threat has been a big reason why.
However, those hoping Huberdeau will return to his 115-point form from 2021-22 are probably out of luck.
Four of his seven points came in an outburst against the struggling Philadelphia Flyers, while he has just one goal and one assist in his past four games. As was the case the past two seasons, Huberdeau hasn’t generated many shot attempts and will likely rely on his linemates to produce. It wouldn’t seem wise to think that Martin Pospisil and Anthony Mantha will maintain their current forms, either.
While an improvement on his past two seasons of 55 and 52 points isn’t a huge possibility, a return to being an elite producer likely is.
Jordan Eberle, RW, Seattle Kraken
Consistency has often evaded Eberle, proven by his point totals over his three seasons with the Kraken: 44, 63 and 44.
So perhaps this is shaping up to be a bounce-back year for Eberle, just as the Kraken are trying to accomplish after a disappointing 2023-24 campaign.
But probably not something to the tune of six goals and eight points in eight games. Eberle is sporting a team-high 2.7 goals above expected and a 40 percent shooting rate. Can the new Kraken captain keep up this pace? Given his career inconsistencies, probably not, but the 34-year-old could very well see some slight overall improvement this season.
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