It’s been a roller coaster of a ride tracking Bengals QB Joe Burrow’s NFL career through six seasons. After being injured as a rookie, Burrow returned to win Comeback Player of the Year and help Cincinnati advance to the Super Bowl in 2021. He’d turn in an MVP-worthy season before getting injured in 2023, then back to MVP form before missing most of 2025.
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Heading into 2026 fantasy football, Burrow has an early offseason ADP that would see him as the QB3 off the board. Matt Harmon was joined by Joel Smyth on a recent Yahoo Fantasy Forecast episode to discuss whether the price is right on Burrow or if he’s being overvalued compared to other veteran signal-callers with similar projections.
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The main issue Harmon has with Burrow is where he’s going versus other pass-first QBs for fantasy. Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford — these QBs have much lower ADPs yet have posted comparable or better numbers recently. Last season, Stafford finished as the QB3 overall in fantasy scoring while Prescott was QB5. But early ADP has Prescott as the QB8 and Stafford as QB15 for 2026.
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Based on the early returns, Harmon would rather roll the dice on a Prescott or Stafford later on in fantasy drafts rather than have to take Burrow among the top 50 picks.
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Smyth points out why it would be wise to opt for another position earlier in your draft versus selecting a QB like Burrow. It’ll be tough to find an RB or WR who can average around 20 fantasy points per game in the eighth round versus the fourth or fifth rounds. We also usually see QBs drafted in the later rounds more frequently jump up and post QB1 numbers.
Burrow has also been injured a lot; he’s played in 35 of a possible 51 regular-season games over the past three seasons. He doesn’t add too much rushing upside as well, and that sentiment goes down when Burrow is coming off injury. With all of that, it appears Burrow is a tough sell that high in drafts this early in the offseason.
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