Once a week during the NFL season, I dig into the pass-game data and try to figure out what trends matter at wide receiver, tight end and running back. Let’s open up the spreadsheets and see what we find.
RB De’Von Achane, Dolphins
It’s easy to forget that in Achane’s breakout rookie season, he was targeted just 37 times. Miami bumped that target count to 87 last year (good for a 78-592-6 haul), and this season he’s already on a pace for 119 looks. It’s not just a pass-game bump for Achane; he’s doing more with those opportunities — 10.2 yards per catch, 8.0 yards per target, all personal highs.
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Tua Tagovailoa remains suspect when throwing the ball downfield, but the last two seasons Miami has concentrated on throwing to the shorter areas that Tagovailoa can easily process. Last year, Jonnu Smith and Achane were the big winners. This year, it’s the Achane show, as he’s averaging 18.6 fantasy points per game.
RB Alvin Kamara, Saints
When you roster a running back on a losing team, you generally need a pass-game role to feel good about the pick. Is Kamara still a difference-maker as a receiver? The Saints have targeted him a modest eight times in two weeks, despite trailing for basically two weeks straight, and while Kamara has secured all of his targets, they’ve gone for a paltry 33 yards. As you’d expect, this is easily the worst yards-per-catch and yards-per-target metrics of Kamara’s career.
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Yes, it’s just two games. But we’re also talking about an age-30 running back who’s navigating his ninth pro season, not to mention someone who hasn’t played a full season since 2017. There might be some winners in the New Orleans offensive huddle — Juwan Johnson waves hello — but Kamara is nowhere near my circle of trust.
WR Rome Odunze, Bears
In the summer, we wondered if Odunze had the stuff to pass DJ Moore as the top target in Chicago. Through two weeks of 2025, it appears that’s already happened. Odunze is drawing a target on 25% of his routes, while Moore lags at 15%. Odunze is also running more impactful routes, collecting 260 air yards to Moore’s 125. Caleb Williams even has a passer rating that’s 26 points higher when targeting Odunze. The point isn’t that Moore is a bad player or a throwaway — you’re not cutting him in fantasy. But it sure looks like the baton has been passed and Odunze has the yellow jersey.
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TE Jake Ferguson, Cowboys
In the rush to talk about breakout players (Johnson) and hotshot rookies (Tyler Warren, Harold Fannin Jr.) at this position, perhaps a steady but unspectacular veteran like Ferguson is getting lost in the wash. Ferguson currently ranks first in tight end catches and second in tight end targets, and while he’ll usually be the third option in the Dallas passing game behind CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, Ferguson does rank fifth in tight end market share (percentage of targets). Ferguson’s 2024 season looks like a disappointment but he was actually productive when Dak Prescott played — Ferguson’s stats tanked when Cooper Rush was forced into the game. The timing looks right for a possible breakout in Ferguson’s fifth season.
TE Trey McBride, Cardinals
Life with Kyler Murray is often a gift and a curse for the Arizona passing game. The curse, of course, usually comes around the goal line, where Murray sometimes struggles to see passing windows or make accurate throws. That’s a big part of why McBride didn’t have a touchdown until late in the 2024 season. But Murray does lock onto his primary read on a regular basis, and that’s always going to protect McBride’s volume. Last year, McBride had a first-read target share of 33.6%, easily the best at the tight end position, and this season the number has spiked to 38.9%, a silly-high rate.
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So we’re not going to sweat the McBride touchdown count, or Arizona’s occasional foibles at the goal line. Any talented player who’s prioritized as much as McBride is should pay off his ADP, even if we can’t help but dream of a better quarterback someday.
WR Keenan Allen, Chargers
Generally, we discount receivers when they land in their mid-30s, and Allen is navigating his age-33 season. But he was shrewd to reconnect with the Chargers, the team he spent his first 11 years with. Allen has the highest percentage of catchable targets this year (93.8%) among qualified receivers, which speaks both to Justin Herbert’s accuracy and the simple, short routes that Allen excels at. I see no reason why Allen can’t produce a boring but useful 80-900-7 type of line by season’s end, which will keep him in the WR3 conversation all year.
Data from TruMedia, Pro-Football Reference and Fantasy Points was used in the research for this article.
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