Fantasy Football Sleepers, Busts & Predictions: 2026 Kansas City Chiefs

Only one team has gone longer since its last 1,000-yard receiver than the Kansas City Chiefs, who last had someone crack 1,000 yards when Travis Kelce got there in 2022. (The Packers haven’t gotten there since Davante Adams in 2021.) No team has gone longer since its last 1,000-yard rusher than the Chiefs, who last had someone pass the threshold when Kareem Hunt did it in 2017. (The Chargers and Saints also had their last 1,000-yard rusher in 2017.) The easy thing to say is that everything disintegrated for Kansas City last year, with the team going from three straight Super Bowl appearances to a 6-11 finish. And of course in a lot of ways that’s true. But also, the team hasn’t actually been an offensive dynamo for a few years now, and it’s been Patrick Mahomes and a very good defense that have carried the team. Now heading into 2026, the team has a flashy new running back, a wide receiver who is healty and eligible, and potential. But does that mean a rebound 2026?

2026 Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions: Kansas City Chiefs

Sleeper: Jalen Royals, WR

Kansas City’s top pass catchers are (in some order) a tight end who turns 37 in October, a wide receiver who it seems is one off-field misstep away from being out of football, and a former first-rounder who only scored one touchdown and 532 yards last year despite playing as the team’s borderline WR1 much of the year. After those three (Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy, in order), the next options are guys like Tyquan Thornton, fifth-round rookie Cyrus Allen, backup tight end Noah Gray and Jalen Royals. In short, this team is not flush with pass-catching options, and if Patrick Mahomes can return healthy, someone’s going to have to step up, especially if Kelce really is over the age cliff and/or Rice can’t get his head on right. Royals did essentially nothing as a fourth-round rookie last year, not even seeing a target until he had 2 receptions for 4 yards on 3 targets in Week 18. But he had 1,080 yards and a MWC-leading 15 touchdowns at Utah State in 2023, and he followed that up with 834 yards and 6 scores in seven games in 2024. He’s got the makeup to be a power slot, and if he can develop a la guys like Parker Washington or Jauan Jennings in recent years, it’ll happen this year. This is obviously just a deep-league play, but if you’re diving deep, a late-rounder on Jalen Royals isn’t a bad idea.

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Bust: Rashee Rice, WR

Truth be told, I like Rice on the football field, and yes I needed that emphasis. I think there’s a very realistic world where he performs similarly to the back half of his rookie year, when he was the WR9 in PPR points per game from Week 12 to the end of the season. But that’s the kicker. The best stretch you can find for Rice is him averaging 86.3 yards per game down the stretch of 2023, putting up WR9 numbers … and yet he’s the WR11 in drafts this year? That’s just a wild overdraft for a guy whose realistic ceiling isn’t much above that. And all of that is even before we discuss the fact that his star quarterback tore his ACL late last year, and while reports on Patrick Mahomes’ recovery are good, you never know until you see him on the field. His backup is Justin Fields, and if you’re counting on Justin Fields to make your wide receiver productive, you might be in for a bad time. And all of that is even before we discuss anything about Rice’s off-the-field situations. As of right now, it definitely doesn’t look like Rice is in line for any further suspension based on his probation violation earlier this summer. But he’s run into enough issues so far in his career that pretty much anything that were to happen between now and the season could have him on the sidelines for who knows how long. Should you avoid drafting Rice altogether because of off-the-field concerns? No, probably not. But it’s just another point of concern on a guy with a lot of them who is still somehow being drafted as if he’s a top-12 fantasy wide receiver, and I just don’t see it.

Bold Prediction: The Chiefs Miss the Playoffs Again

Betting against Patrick Mahomes feels like a fool’s errand, but the situation in Kansas City has the potential to be as bad as it’s ever been in his career. Kenneth Walker III should be a boon to the running game, but the receiver room could be a mess. And more damning is the fact that the secondary got picked apart this offseason, with Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson going to the Rams and Bryan Cook going to Cincinnati. The defense isn’t going to go from good to worst in the league. This isn’t a Bengals/Cowboys situation. But it’s very likely to be a much worse side of the ball than it has been in years past, and I’m more than a little nervous about the offense improving enough to make up for it. Meanwhile, the Broncos potentially have one of the best rosters in the NFL. The Chargers have almost certainly approved from last year with the addition of OC Mike McDaniel hopefully making the offense more electric. And while the Raiders are still likely to finish last, even that team should be more talented in 2026. The Chiefs are going to face a tough divisional slate this year, and the roster is suddenly questionable enough that, even if the team improves from last year’s 6-11, it won’t find its way back to the playoffs.