Each week, fantasy football analyst Joel Smyth goes through 10 storylines that will define the week. After five weeks of surprises, how will the trends of fantasy football define Week 6?
1. Joe Flacco arrives in Cincinnati
Flacco bringing this amount of buzz shows how bad it’s been in Cincinnati. It’s better, but in a way that goes from horrible to bad, not bad to great. Every quarterback in the NFL is ahead of Flacco in yards per attempt this season, as he also has three times as many interceptions as touchdowns. He, oddly enough, has been holding onto the ball longer than the average NFL QB, yet his average depth of throw is a low 6.6 yards. It’s the main reason his self-generated pressure rate is the worst in the league (as seen below). Pair that with the Bengals offensive line (and Packers defensive line this week) and the improvements may not be staggering.
The targets for Chase Brown should increase. Flacco has targeted running backs 8.5 times per game, while Cincinnati, to date, is averaging less than six. It may not be amazing against Green Bay. The Packers are the best defense against fantasy RBs on the ground this season, and although Flacco beat the Packers earlier this year, he only threw for 142 yards and no touchdowns.
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The area the Bengals can improve substantially is in the short, quick passing game. On throws under 2.5 seconds this season, Flacco’s accuracy has been one of the best. Zac Taylor needs a smart QB that can get the ball out fast to playmakers like Ja’Marr Chase, letting the playmakers do what they do best from there. The confidence with Tee Higgins is still bleak. I do not trust the combination of a quarterback constantly being pressured, who neither throws downfield consistently or accurately for the Bengals star WR2.
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2. Chicago rookies ready for more?
Back in May, the Chicago Bears used their top two draft picks on weapons to support Caleb Williams. The Ben Johnson offense is succeeding, Williams looks like the real deal, but the rookies have made little impact so far. The young players can be the biggest benefactors of an early Week 5 bye, especially Colston Loveland, coming back from a hip injury.
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Adjusting to the NFL takes time, especially for pass catchers in a creative offense. The last game we saw, Loveland had three targets on 10 passing attempts before going down to injury. The fact that he had three targets on only five routes shows me there was a shift in the right direction prior to the injury. With Chicago running the fifth most 12 personnel (a two-TE set), Johnson’s offense can provide plenty of fantasy potential from here on out.
Luther Burden III is another rookie without much volume, but has evidence of coaches trying to get him involved. On his eight targets, four were designed, not including his long touchdown on the Bears flea flicker in Week 3. His targets per route sit at 23% early in his rookie year, a much different story compared to DJ Moore, who’s been much more of an afterthought at a 15% rate.
3. Jacory Croskey-Merritt breakout continues?
For a player who finally led the way for Washington last week, you can not ask for a better situation for Bill Croskey-Merritt in Week 6. The Commanders rookie had 93% of the RB carries up until the late fourth quarter of Week 5, in an offense that is built for rushing efficiency. The Bears defense is last in yards before contact allowed in the NFL, giving the Commanders the No. 1 advantage in Week 6 as Jayden Daniels’ rushing ability helps RBs yards before contact rates.
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The worry with Daniels’ knee injury was a decline in his rushing volume. In his first game back, that wasn’t the case at all. He had 8.6% designed run calls in Week 5 (nearly identical to 2024) and a 16% scramble rate (higher than his 2024 average of 12.5%). The combination of a healthy quarterback, added rushing volume and a perfect matchup can lead to a continued breakout on the ground this Monday night.
4. Tetairoa McMillan blow-up game?
The graph below shows how fantasy WRs rank in red zone targets and downfield targets this season. The Panthers rookie wideout is next to some very memorable names, such as Puka Nacua, Quentin Johnston and Justin Jefferson. He’s played well, but his valuable usage hasn’t fully paid off yet. The downfield targets should only improve, as McMillan has dominated the percentage of the Panthers deeper targets, but Bryce Young’s aggression has been much lower in 2025 compared to last season. Young’s percentage of throws 15+ yards downfield has fallen from the second-highest rate last season to the fourth-lowest this year. With the same head coach and playcaller, the hope is that this at least falls somewhere in the middle.
McMillan’s red-zone targets have also been there, although he hasn’t scored a touchdown this season. Carolina has been very pass-heavy in the red zone, leading the league in red-zone pass attempts resulting in seven touchdowns (again, 0 to McMillan). The talent is there, the usage is there and another great matchup gives plenty of potential for McMillan to have a blow-up game versus a Cowboys defense allowing the most touchdowns and fantasy points to wideouts this season.
The graph shows how fantasy WRs rank in red zone targets and downfield targets this season.
5. TreVeyon Henderson with no Antonio Gibson
We are five games in, and TreVeyon Henderson managers have gotten excited about a potential takeover 20 times. And it hasn’t happened. With no Antonio Gibson for the remainder of the year, can the rookie finally start to have an expanded role? Rhamondre Stevenson, who led the NFL in fumbles last season, is leading the NFL in fumbles this season. That has not stopped coach Mike Vrabel in the past, and it doesn’t look to change going forward based on his recent comments.
Stevenson is counted on for a major role in this Patriots offense as, at minimum, the red-zone and short-area back. He’s played over twice as many snaps in the red zone as Henderson this season, but even more disappointing is playing over 30 more passing-down snaps than the rookie receiving threat. Although we want to see more of the rookie RB taken early in fantasy drafts, the fact of the matter is that there has been less reason to than perhaps perceived. Taking away the fumbles, Stevenson has been the more productive back compared to Henderson. Even as the short-yardage RB, Stevenson has a higher yards per play. Henderson certainly comes with the big play potential, but in terms of forcing Vrabel into giving him more touches, he still has yet to have an explosive carry (15+ yard run) on the season.
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6. George Pickens against the Panthers
With CeeDee Lamb coming back soon, George Pickens has one more big-time boom-bust matchup in Week 6. Carolina has been great versus fantasy WRs early, a large part thanks to CB Jaycee Horn, who will likely shadow the Cowboys wideout on Sunday. Horn has only been targeted on 12% of routes this season, which is concerning for a WR only targeted four times in Week 5 when shadowed by Jets CB Sauce Gardner.
The positive for Pickens comes in the QB pressure, or lack thereof. The Panthers generate the fewest in the NFL, ultra-important for Dak Prescott, who has been pressured 75 times already. The 43-yard TD Prescott and Pickens connected on resulted from there being zero QB pressure on a long-developing play. Prescott wants to let the play develop downfield, throwing 10 more attempts than any quarterback on dropbacks with 2.5+ seconds to throw. Pickens ranks fourth in air yards when QBs aren’t pressured and 45th when QBs are under pressure. When you don’t pressure Prescott, he’ll sling it downfield to Pickens all day.
7. Panthers backfield after Dowdle’s monster game
Can you go away from a guy who just ran for 200 yards? Chuba Hubbard managers certainly hope so. Two things would strike fear in me as a Hubbard manager: his RB touch percentage and goal-line usage. Hubbard’s percentage of the team RB touches has decreased every game, dropping to 63% in Week 3 prior to his injury the following game. When it comes to goal-line carries, he has zero. That is bad for anybody, but even worse for Hubbard, who led the NFL with 1.4 goal-line attempts per game in 2024, accounting for 20% of his fantasy points.
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After all that, Rico Dowdle, an RB that isn’t just a role player, but rather a similar style to Hubbard, has the game of his life in the absence of the Panthers usual RB1. I don’t think Dowdle disappears and would project closer to a 60/40 split going forward in favor of Hubbard. However, is that good enough? With an inconsistent scoring offense, no goal-line work and limited usage, Hubbard loses the ceiling we saw in 2024. I’m not confidently starting him this week off injury, even in a great matchup that’s a Dowdle revenge game versus Dallas.
8. Matthew Golden post bye
Similar to the Chicago rookies, Matthew Golden can benefit from an early bye. Unlike Loveland and Burden, though, he has been on the field plenty to start the season, just not getting the usage. I believe Week 6 is a defining week. Is this a major turnaround, or will Golden’s usage continue to follow the negative trend from his college days? The graph below shows his adjusted target share compared to where rookie WRs were originally projected to be selected. Having another NFL Draft WR talent on his team adjusts his target share positively, and yet, it’s still dangerously low overall. Players that have not shown the ability to command targets in college often struggle, even one’s drafted early, such as Kadarius Toney, Ja’Lynn Polk, Jonathan Mingo and others.
The graph shows Matthew Golden’s adjusted target share compared to where rookie WRs were originally projected to be selected.
His route share sits at 63% on the season, but Golden’s targets per route are below 15%, ranking 85th among wideouts next to players such as Kavontae Turpin and Jalen Nailor. A large majority of his targets have either been deep downfield or at the line of scrimmage, 11 of 14 to be exact. This is considerably higher than other Green Bay WRs who see much more diverse volume. If the volume doesn’t improve off a bye versus Cincinnati’s weak secondary, my faith in a breakout in Golden’s rookie season would be lowered.
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9. Cardinals pass heavy against Colts?
It may not feel like it, but Arizona has the second-highest pass rate over expected (how often a team passes compared to the situation). The problem: only the Steelers have a lower team target share to WR compared to RBs and TEs. Although the type of targets Marvin Harrison Jr. is getting, the amount isn’t too different than 2024. Drew Petzing publicly said he didn’t do enough to get Harrison the ball last Sunday, and Week 6 is the perfect matchup to put his money where his mouth is.
The Cardinals travel to Indianapolis this weekend to take on a 4-1 Colts squad that has forced the highest pass rate in the NFL. The Colts defense has faced a 67% pass rate, allowing 160 yards per game to WRs this season. Another factor is the potential of Kyler Murray missing this contest due to a foot injury. Harrison has a sub-20% first-read target share, 48th among WRs this season. If Jacoby Brissett enters the game and begins to pepper the young WR with targets, at least we know the problem.
10. Ashton Jeanty versus the Titans
Five games into his rookie season and Jeanty has only one fantasy performance as a top-15 RB. He was the overall RB1 in Week 4, but only one wasn’t the hope on draft day. That Week 4 matchup was against the Chicago Bears, who, even behind a poor offensive line, Jeanty was able to dominate thanks to the Bears ranking 31st in yards after contact allowed per carry. The team ranked 32nd? The Tennessee Titans…
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The Raiders rookie is fourth in the NFL with 3.82 yards after contact per attempt. He may need to break more tackles than ever with no Kolton Miller, a key part of the Las Vegas offensive line at LT. It’s going to continue to be an uphill battle for Jeanty this season, but the increase in passing game usage (partially due to TE injuries) and the matchup give him the best ceiling potential he’ll get this season.
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