Looking around the fantasy football landscape, I think you’re going to need a pretty big score to win your matchups this week as a number of marquee players have soft landing spots.
All your Rams are in a smash spot against the lowly Ravens defense; Matt Stafford in particular could end up being the top-scoring quarterback this week tossing the rock to Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.
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Your Packers are in a great spot against a Bengals defense. Josh Jacobs faces a defense that has given up the second-most fantasy points per game to the position group.
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Miami’s defense is terrible; they’re dead last in total yards allowed to running backs while at the same time allowing the third-most touchdowns to quarterbacks this year. This bodes well for your Chargers.
Chicago and Washington’s defenses are both pretty porous so no surprise that this game is tied for the highest projected point total (49.5). Rome Odunze, Jayden Daniels and all your premiere Bears and Commanders could be in line for a field day.
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One last wild stat before we dig into the matchups: after this week is in the books, an entire third of the regular season will be done. The season is flying by!
On to the sleepers!
Quarterbacks
Michael Penix vs. BUF
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Serious home-road splits are developing for Penix. Across nine total games, Penix has played five at home and four on the road.
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At the friendly confines of Mercedes-Benz Stadium: 65% completion rate, seven total TD (two rush), three INT.
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On the road: 54% completion rate, one total TD, three INT.
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The Bills defense shouldn’t scare you. While it’s true they’ve allowed the second-fewest passing yards, keep in mind they’ve seen Spencer Rattler, Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Fields (who suffered a concussion mid-game).
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I also really like the fact that the Buffalo offense should put up numbers against the Falcons as well, potentially forcing Penix and company to keep pace by throwing the rock.
Mac Jones vs. TB
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The Bucs have given up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the position and they’re fresh off a game where Sam Darnold tossed for four scores.
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Mac Jones is dealing with a knee injury but even against a much tougher Rams defense he threw for 342 yards and two touchdowns.
Bryce Young vs. DAL
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The Cowboys have allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Is it bad that literally every single quarterback they’ve faced has scored at least 24 fantasy points? That seems bad.
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Young has been extremely up and down all year long but, to be fair, the team traded away his favorite target Adam Thielen. Plus, Xavier Legette was injured and out for a couple of games as well. This week it sounds like Jalen Coker could be activated off IR and play, adding another weapon for Young to throw to.
More Week 6 Start/Sit Advice
Rankings from each Yahoo Fantasy analyst
Consensus Half-PPR Rankings
Consensus PPR Rankings
More Roster Advice: Trade Value Charts
Running Backs
Jacory Croskey-Merritt vs. CHI
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The Bears are arguably the worst run defense in the NFL. Not only have they allowed the most rushing yards to opposing running backs, the 6.05 yards per carry allowed is BY FAR the worst in the league. League average is 4.3 ypc while the Giants are second-worst at 5.61 ypc.
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“Bill” had a huge breakthrough game last week with his first 100-yard game (111 rush yards on 14 carries, two touchdowns). Beyond the production, JCM also set a season high in total snaps. His 49.1% snap share led the Washington backfield.
Kimani Vidal vs. MIA
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🚨DEEP SLEEPER ALERT🚨
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Full transparency, I don’t have a great read on this Chargers backfield but I do know that Vidal has a better overall skill set than Hassan Haskins. He is more of an early-down thumper but Vidal is a more explosive athlete and a much better pass-catching option.
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If we can somehow manifest Vidal into a 50-50 split, he could post top-20 positional value, that’s how confident I am in what he can do, especially in this matchup.
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The Dolphins have been atrocious versus the run. The 5.57 ypc allowed to opposing backs ranks as third-worst. They’re also second-worst in explosive run rate allowed. Pretty enticing for us Vidal Down Bad Bros (because let’s be real, if you’re playing Vidal you are indeed down bad at the running back position).
Wide Receivers
Romeo Doubs vs. CIN
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Doubs is a strong sleeper play as he faces a Bengals defense that is bottom 10 in receptions and yards allowed to outside wide receivers.
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Doubs is a shining example of why chemistry matters. He hasn’t been a great separator in his career but despite the hype and talent of Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks and now Matthew Golden, Doubs has played the most snaps and leads all Packers receivers in targets, receptions and yards. His four touchdowns is as many as everyone else on the roster COMBINED.
Kendrick Bourne vs. TB
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Ricky Pearsall has already been ruled out and Juaun Jennings is no lock to play either as he tries to work back from ankle and rib injuries.
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Through five weeks of play, the Bucs are seemingly a pass-funnel defense. The run defense has been TOUGH while at the same time they’ve been giving up big plays through the air. Tampa Bay has allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards to running backs and lead the league in yards after contact allowed.
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No. 1 receivers have scored at least 13.5 PPR fantasy points in four of five games against Tampa Bay. Jaxon Smith-Njigba went off for 27.2 and Garrett Wilson had a season-best 24.4 PPR points in a Week 3 matchup.
Troy Franklin vs. NYJ
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The Jets have given up the fourth-most yards per game to receivers in the slot. The 11.3 yards per pass attempt allowed to inside receivers is dead last in the NFL.
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Franklin, who has played 60% of his snaps out of the slot, has been up and down in the box but he’s very clearly the No. 2 receiver in this offense: he’s second on the team in routes run, receptions and receiving yards.
Elic Ayomanor vs. LV
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🚨DEEP SLEEPER ALERT🚨
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The Raiders have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to outside receivers this year and Ayomanor has played a whopping 85% of his snaps outside.
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Ayomanor flopped last week, and the Titans offense has been terrible, so this is a scary play but that being said, Kyu Blu Kelly has been a turnstile; he’s allowed the third-most receiving yards in coverage, according to Next Gen Stats. I have him ranked as the 66th best outside corner based on a composite score of nine different cornerback metrics.
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Ayomanor has lined up 56% of the time on the left side, the same side as Kelly.
Tight Ends
Hunter Long vs. SEA
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🚨DEEP SLEEPER ALERT🚨
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After a strong start to the season, Brenton Strange hit injured reserve, opening the door for this rand-o tight end you’ve probably never heard of in Duval.
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The fifth-year player was previously with the Rams (this is important) before landing in Jacksonville this past offseason. Remember Liam Coen is a Sean McVay disciple, which may allow Long to take on a bigger role on this offense quickly.
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And Coen seems more than comfortable sticking Long in on high-leverage situations. Long, despite only seeing eight targets all year, has still scored two touchdowns.
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The Seahawks have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the position and have somehow allowed five different tight ends to score double-digit PPR points in just five weeks. Even the lightly-used Cade Otton put together a solid four-catch, 81-yard effort last week.
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