When we’re scouting the player pools for the fresh fantasy football season, we’re always looking for players who can improve or at least maintain a productive level of play. Normally, when we think of regression, it’s a dirty word.
But sometimes you can profit even when production regresses. Allow me to introduce you to the Regress and Win concept.
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Today we’ll focus on wide receivers. I did some data mining from last year’s stats and this year’s ADP and tried to find players who could regress in 2025 (i.e. play worse than the previous season) and yet still be draft-day values because their ADPs do not match their final ranking from last season. That’s what I mean when I identify a Regress and Win player. The market is giving you a possible buying opportunity with these guys.
This is not to suggest that every player who fits a Regress and Win frame (strong 2024 finish, skeptical 2025 ADP) will be on my shopping list. I take this stuff on a case-by-case basis. Let’s look at some of the wideouts who fall into the category and I’ll share my early notes and initial leans.
Regress and Win Players to Consider
Terry McLaurin, Commanders (WR6 in 2024, WR16 in 2025 ADP)
For years we dreamt of what McLaurin could do with plus-quarterback play. In 2024, the dream arrived — star QB, Jayden Daniels. McLaurin finally had a fruitful touchdown season (13 spikes) after a modest 18 scores in his four previous seasons. His other stats were in line with career norms, and he actually saw his lowest target count in five years.
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Early Lean: McLaurin skipped Washington’s mandatory minicamp last week (he’s unhappy about his contract) and he’s entering his age-30 season. And I don’t think anyone expects him to score 13 touchdowns again. But he’s still the unquestioned king of the Washington receiver room — even with Deebo Samuel Sr. in town — and I trust Daniels and the schemes of offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. The days of McLaurin scoring a paltry 4-5 times a season should be done for good; I’ll gladly scoop him up at the current ADP. It’s too early to worry about any of the contract stuff.
Courtland Sutton, Broncos (WR13 in 2024, WR26 in 2025 ADP)
Sutton was the player I had in mind when I pitched this article to my editors. A juicy touchdown rate has buoyed his fantasy value the last two years, though his sharp route running and excellent body control on the boundaries help him earn much of that touchdown rate. Like McLaurin, Sutton steps into his age-30 season.
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Early Lean: Sutton has less competition for the ball in Denver than McLaurin does in Washington, and Sutton is also coming off a career-high in targets (135). Sean Payton is the type of coach who is good to his primary players, and that’s what Sutton is, a featured guy. I’m going to target this ADP as long as the market allows me.
Mike Evans, Buccaneers (WR9 in 2024, WR20 in 2025 ADP)
When has anyone drafted Evans and regretted it? He’s made it to 1,000 yards receiving in all 11 of his NFL seasons, and even a three-game injury hitch last year couldn’t stop him. Evans also has the type of skills to be dynamic on both long balls and red-zone activity, allowing him to score 57 times in the last five years.
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Early Lean: Evans is two years older than McLaurin and Sutton and there’s more crowding in the Tampa Bay offense — it’s possible Bucky Irving or Chris Godwin could go down as the signature skill player in this huddle, not to mention the presence of late-season hero Jalen McMillan and 2025 first-round pick, Emeka Egbuka. We also have to consider the loss of play-calling guru Liam Coen, though last year we said the same thing when Dave Canales left the building. I might not target Evans as proactively as the names above him on this list, but he has the tinge of a boring-value vet in 2025. I’m also at a point where I completely trust QB Baker Mayfield.
Jerry Jeudy, Browns (WR15 in 2024, WR33 in 2025 ADP)
Jeudy had a career season despite the poor quarterback play in Cleveland, sailing to a 90-1,229-4 line on 145 juicy targets. The extra volume was needed, because his efficiency (looking at yards per target) was a little higher in his two previous seasons in Denver.
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Early Lean: As bad as the Cleveland QB room looked last year, it’s certainly not improved this season — and could easily be worse. Jeudy has never shown the traits of a consistent touchdown scorer and at times, he shies from physical contact. I also suspect the Browns will try to win ugly this year, turning every game into a rock fight they try to win 13-10, focusing on defense and the running game. Jeudy’s cheap ADP obviously is tempting, but I’m likely to resist it.
Jauan Jennings, 49ers (WR25 in 2024, WR34 in 2025 ADP)
Jennings came out of nowhere with a breakout season at age 27, stepping up when injuries ravaged the San Francisco WR room. Jennings was especially handy in the slot and showed the ability to win on contested routes. He has six different games with seven grabs or more, three of them after Thanksgiving.
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Early Lean: This looks like another easy ADP win, with Jennings tied to underrated QB Brock Purdy and esteemed play-designer Kyle Shanahan. Samuel is gone and Brandon Aiyuk is unlikely to be ready for Week 1, securing Jennings’s role in the offense. Often, the market doesn’t know what to do with surprise breakout players, but Jennings is welcome on my teams at this nice draft price.
Jordan Addison, Vikings (WR20 in 2024, WR35 in 2025 ADP)
Addison is always going to be the Robin to Justin Jefferson’s Batman in the Minnesota passing game, but Addison still has a classy 71-949-10 line of production for every 17 games played through his two seasons. His yards per target mildly improved last year and he added a rushing touchdown. The glare of Jefferson’s star and the ascension of untested QB J.J. McCarthy might have the market overly cautious with Addison.
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Early Lean: This is where I’m willing to follow Minnesota coach Kevin O’Connell into a burning building — he’s a quarterback whisperer and a brilliant play-designer. I trust him to get McCarthy up to speed quickly, and it makes me willing to invest in any primary piece of this passing game.
Other Possible Regress-and-Win Receivers
Jameson Williams (WR19 in 2024, WR27 in 2025 ADP)
I’d like to see him iron out some of the rough patches in his game — and the mental mistakes — but it’s an indoor offense and Williams can score from any place on the field, on any route.
Calvin Ridley (WR27 in 2024, WR36 in 2025 ADP)
The Titans are asking QB Cam Ward to get it done with old receivers, but Ridley at least has the target arrow pointed in his direction. He can give us a boring-veteran value season.
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Jayden Reed (WR26 in 2024, WR43 in 2025 ADP)
Although I consider Matt LaFleur one of the best play-callers in the NFL, the Packers added to their receiver room and love platooning at that position, which makes me hesitate with Reed.
Darnell Mooney (WR31 in 2024, WR49 in 2025 ADP)
Mooney probably has a capped upside given the other talent in this Atlanta huddle, making him a hesitation pick for a managed league. I would welcome his underrated profile for a best-ball roster, though.
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