For those still active in head-to-head leagues, the fantasy playoffs are either about to begin or have already begun. After what’s been a tumultuous season, the time has come to throw all of our eggs into one basket. The trade deadline has likely come and gone for the majority of fantasy managers, meaning you have to make the most of what you have. Additionally, the waiver wire becomes even more important, affording you an opportunity to make the most of scripted absences across the NBA. While luck undoubtedly has a say in determining the outcome, there are things you can be doing to try to swing that pendulum in your favor. The following are three tips to consider as you move into what can be the most volatile portion of the season, both in fantasy and reality.
Narrow your focus
While punting is not a strategy that everyone adopts during the regular season, come playoff time, it makes a lot of sense. There is an argument to be had that punting during the regular season can limit your overall upside, specifically when it comes to your projected margin of victory each week. By limiting yourself to six or seven categories, it reduces the margin for error, something that can come back to bite you should you miscalculate during the draft.
However, the playoffs are far more concentrated, with managers needing to focus on the here and now, rather than what’s to come. As they say, it’s a win-or-go-home mindset. Sticking with that line of thinking, shifting from an across-the-board build into a punt build is a plan that can go a long way to ensuring victory.
Step one in this plan is to examine your league standings, not only for the season but also over the past couple of weeks. The reason for this is while you may have been highly competitive in certain categories for the majority of the season, things may have changed recently. A great example might be anyone who had Anthony Davis rostered this season. Chances are you were towards the top of the table when it comes to blocks. However, with Davis possibly done for the season, you may have slipped a few rungs on the ladder. You may also have someone like Walker Kessler on your roster. When available, he can single-handedly keep you afloat in the blocks category. The key phrase here is ‘when available’. The Jazz have openly thrown in the towel, sitting Kessler more often than not. No Davis and no Kessler could mean it is time to shift away from the blocks category altogether.
Figure out your current strengths and lean into those as best you can. Examine the recent trends on the waiver wire, focusing on those categories in which you have a solid and reliable base. Cobbled together with understanding the schedule, you should be able to make some savvy moves to bolster your chances of emerging victorious.
Understand the schedule
As we have seen over the past few weeks, there is a difference when it comes to analyzing the current schedule. A better way of putting it might be to say that it is all well and good to know the schedule, but do you understand the schedule? Perusing the schedule grid can be a simple exercise to help gauge which players have a favorable week. Team A plays four games, while Team B plays three games. On the surface, this is a simple case of quantity over quality. However, if we’ve learned anything over the past few weeks, it’s that we can’t simply trust how many games a team is playing on paper.
A great example was in the most recent week, when the Nets had a rare five-game week. Great on paper, but as we have seen, it doesn’t necessarily mean players will be suiting up for all five games. When all is said and done, players like Cam Thomas, D’Angelo Russell and even Nic Claxton won’t end up playing the full allotment of games. In the case of Thomas and Russell, they will end up playing three, at most.
For the upcoming week, the Hornets have four games on the table, including a back-to-back against the Knicks and the Thunder. If history tells us anything, we can safely assume both LaMelo Ball and Mark Williams will play three of the four games. So what looks like a favorable schedule actually ends up being modest when compared to a lot of other teams.
Something else to pay attention to is the opponent. The Spurs and 76ers both have four games next week, none of which fall on a back-to-back. However, both teams are battling for a higher draft pick, meaning losses are at a premium. The two teams will face each other Friday, again presenting us with a situation where one or both teams could rest certain players. Finally, the Cavaliers line up against the Jazz to finish off their four-game week. History tells us that there is a decent chance they will rest or limit certain players in a matchup they see as less challenging. So not only are we paying attention to the cellar dwellers, we need to keep an eye on the upper echelon of teams, especially when they are tasked with playing a lesser opponent.
Know your opponent
Finally, we come to knowing your opponent, or more specifically, knowing their strengths and weaknesses. Again, you will want to refer to your league standings to see where each of you is positioned when it comes to categories, both for the season and the past few weeks. You can double down by also referring back to any previous matchups, to see who won and who lost, as well as the reasoning. Were you missing certain players during that matchup? How many total games were played by each team? Were there any outlier performances or random waiver-wire success stories?
Not only do you want to dissect their team on paper, but you also want to understand the mindset of the manager. Do they typically use their pickups early in the week? Are they known for overreacting when someone on their team underperforms? Are they someone you would consider active or reactive? Remembering that during the playoffs, there are fewer teams scouring the waiver wire. This means that players who are dropped as a reactive move could be available for longer, rather than being snapped up immediately. Keeping this in mind, you may even be able to capitalize on your opponent’s haste by cashing in on their panic move.
By analyzing the data, you should be able to create a narrative to assist with building the best team for the upcoming week. By simply condensing your team’s strengths based on understanding the schedule and knowing your opponent, you can tip the scales in your favor. By doing this, you may also put yourself in a position to start preparing for the following week, should you establish a lead come the final two days of the matchup. If you are lucky enough to advance, it’s simply a case of rinse-and-repeat based on your new opponent and the new weekly schedule.
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