Pitcher values are all over the map at this point in the season. It’s hard enough to reach a conclusion on hitters who have played in about 25 games, but it’s even harder to gauge pitchers who have made five starts. The lack of a sample size on hurlers makes this a great time to jump in into the trade market and capitalize on overreactions from other managers.
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Here are a few starting pitchers who have the potential to be involved in many April deals.
BUY LOW
Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves
Managers should jump at the chance to use Sale’s 6.17 ERA and 1.63 WHIP to acquire him at a discount. The southpaw’s velocity, strikeout rate and walk rate are similar to the numbers he posted during his Cy Young 2024 season. He has allowed hard contact at a slightly higher rate this year, but his .429 BABIP is still an incredibly unlucky mark that will normalize in the coming weeks.
Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres
Cease is similar to Sale — a strikeout machine who can currently be acquired at a discount in some leagues thanks to bad luck on batted balls. The right-hander hasn’t lost any velocity, and although his strikeout rate is down, the difference is marginal. He has been felled by a .384 BABIP that is 118 points higher than his mark from last season, and his 2.63 FIP is lower than the 3.10 mark from his exceptional 2024 campaign.
BUY HIGH
Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals
Managers who are willing to pay the premium price for a sure-fire ace can trade for Ragans, who would garner much more attention if he pitched in a larger market. The lefty is a strikeout machine, having accumulated 42 in 27.2 innings after collecting 223 whiffs last year. And since joining the Royals during the 2023 season, Ragans has logged a 3.06 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP.
Hunter Brown, Houston Astros
Brown has followed up an excellent second half in 2024 with a strong start to this season. The right-hander logged a 2.26 ERA after the All-Star break last year, and those who invested a draft pick in his breakout potential have thus far been rewarded with a 1.16 ERA, a 0.74 WHIP and a 31:6 K:BB ratio. Brown’s success is mostly sustainable, and it helps that he pitches for a team that is known for helping their starters excel. He’s an ace who can be acquired at the value of a No. 2 starter in many leagues.
SELL LOW
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
Nola is not in this space due to the fact that his ERA has risen by more than one run in every odd-numbered year since 2019. Sure, we all know the pattern, but that’s not nearly enough of a reason to make a valuation. My reason for covering Nola is more related to declining velocity, which includes a fastball that sits at 91.4 mph this year. After regularly having strikeout rates in the range of 30% during his prime years, Nola has sat around 25% for three straight seasons. And with the decrease in velocity, it’s hard to believe that the whiffs will ever return. He’s now an innings eater who still has enough name recognition to be overvalued on the trade market.
SELL HIGH
Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays
Gausman is not at the outset of a bounce-back, but there is enough data to sell him for an elevated return right now. The right-hander has a 22.4% strikeout rate, which means that he hasn’t recovered from the massive drop he suffered last year. Overall, Gausman has found his way to a 3.16 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP thanks to a .213 BABIP. Not only is a .213 BABIP not sustainable for any starting pitcher, but it’s definitely not sustainable for Gausman, who has always dealt with elevated BABIPs, even during his prime years. Wise managers will market Gausman as a former ace who has regained his top form when the truth is that he is a veteran innings eater who is off to a fortunate start.
Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers
Those who found Mize on waivers should soon try to trade him for anyone who is expected to be a permanent roster member. It’s easy to convince a league mate that Mize is a former No. 1 overall pick who has finally tapped into his vast potential. But the reality is that he still can’t put batters away (18.9% strikeout rate), and he has succeeded thanks to a .194 BABIP and a 90.4% strand rate. Mize will likely return to the waiver wire in many leagues by the end of May.
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