Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings: All-Star break update

Starting pitcher rankings are tremendously difficult for somebody who’s a bit of a perfectionist and an over-thinker. That’s why I try to do them just a few times a year. However, now is certainly one of those times. After publishing my Top 150 in the final week of March, I’m back now with a mid-season update, which you can treat as my rest of season starting pitcher rankings.

A big change for me has been a shift to being a little less aggressive with injured or inconsistent starters. I’ve learned the hard way this season that I may have leaned into risk a bit too much earlier in the season. I still believe starting pitchers are inherently risky due to the unnatural motion of pitching; however, I acknowledge that there are pitchers who are riskier, and I need to be less cavalier about how I rank those players. Depending on your risk appetite or how big of a swing you need to take with your team, you may want some of those riskier arms to be ranked higher, and that’s OK. Just adjust for your team context.

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I’ve included currently injured pitchers who I think will return at some point this season, and I’ve tried to update you below on their potential return dates and how impactful I expect them to be. If you want updates on all of that, make sure you bookmark the Rotoworld Baseball Player News Page, which we update almost 24/7.

As always, the pitchers are divided into tiers, which I’ve named to help you understand why they are ranked where they are. The tiers themselves are more important than the rankings inside the tiers, so I wouldn’t split hairs over a few spots in the rankings. I’ve also ranked these pitchers as if I’m doing a 12-team league, so safe but boring low-end starters take a hit in value, etc.

2025 Fantasy Baseball Top 300 update: Aaron Judge tops the rankings, Rafael Devers tumbles

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Andrew Vaughn and Jurickson Profar return to the rankings this week.

Fantasy Baseball Rest of Season Starting Pitcher Rankings

These guys are all aces. There’s not much to say. Jacob deGrom has managed to stay healthy this late into the season by modifying his max velocity, but he does have the most checkered injury part of the group. Paul Skenes is on the worst team, which has limited his wins upside, and you may be surprised to know that he’s fourth among these pitchers in strikeout rate by a considerable margin. In fact, his 27.9% strikeout rate in the first half is lower than Nick Pivetta, Tylor Megill, and Jack Flaherty, among others.

These guys are all fantasy aces; they’re just not quite on the same level as the guys above.

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Both Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Max Fried have arguments to be in that top group, but I just think their ceiling is a notch below the top five. Both of them are posting elite ratios on good teams, but Yamamoto has a bit more strikeout upside to me, and Fried is also battling a blister issue, which can sometimes lead to an IL stint. That’s how I differentiated between the two of them.

Hunter Brown and Joe Ryan have both had tremendous seasons, but have some inconsistent elements to their pitch mixes. They both have really good fastballs, but have yet to be able to establish a consistent secondary offering week in and week out. That gives me some pause going forward, but they’re both top-8 among qualified starting pitchers in strikeout rate, WHIP, and SIERA, so the results have certainly been there, and it’s hard to find pitchers I would rather have in my lineup over these two.

Logan Gilbert is more of a pick based on the underlying metrics. Gilbert has battled injury this season and has a 3.39 ERA in his 61 innings. That being said, his K-BB% and his SIERA are second-best of any starting pitcher in baseball with at least 30 innings pitched this season. We know how talented Gilbert is when he’s healthy, so I’m going to leave him up here in the Aces tier even though I can see an argument for him to be in the tier below or with the more inconsistent starters in the tier below that. I’m just betting on Gilbert “figuring it out” over the final two-plus months.

These guys all have the potential to be fantasy aces, and kind of have been with all the injuries to pitchers who would normally rank ahead of them; however, they also have concerns about health or strikeouts, or consistency.

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Logan Webb has been elite this season, and his 27% strikeout rate is a nice improvement for him. It’s only 0.8% worse than Paul Skenes’ strikeout rate, but I don’t think we put the two of them in the same room when it comes to swing-and-miss upside. Webb has an argument to be in the group above, but I think his ceiling is just a bit lower.

Robbie Ray, Carlos Rodon, Framber Valdez, and Shota Imanaga are all left-handed, so they’re here together. I’m kidding. I mean, they are all left-handed, but that’s not why they’re here. All of them have shown ace-level upside this season, but they either battle consistency issues (Ray and Rodon) or home run issues (Imanaga) or don’t have quite an elite strikeout upside. I love having all of these guys on my roster, but I would feel a little uncomfortable if they were the ace of my staff.

Bryan Woo has shockingly remained healthy despite all of his elbow and forearm issues, and he’s missing more bats than last season. However, his 24% strikeout rate is a notch below what we’d normally like to see from a true fantasy ace. I have a little bit of a concern that his approach seems to be “I bet you can’t hit my fastball,” but that approach is working for him so far, and he does have a really good fastball. Part of me wanted to put him in the tier below, but the truth is that I only anticipate that he’ll have some volatility in the second half; there is nothing he has done in the first half to suggest he’s a volatile pitcher.

Rollercoaster rides are super fun. They can also be scary and a little dangerous. That’s how I feel about rostering most of these pitchers.

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We know how good Tyler Glasnow, Dylan Cease, George Kirby, and Spencer Strider can be, but they aren’t those guys right now. The underlying metrics – and generally clean bill of health – suggest that Cease is the safest of the group. He’s 13th among qualified starters in K-BB% and 16th in SIERA while posting a career-high 16.1% swinging strike rate (SwStr%). He’s giving up more hard contact than before, but his lack of BABIP luck feels unfortunate, and I think the swing and miss stuff will eventually shine through. All of the other three guys have battled arm injuries in the first half of the season and have not been nearly as crisp as we’ve seen them in the past. Could it all click back into place? Yes, that’s why I have them ranked here, but right now, they are not aces and likely won’t be true aces this season.

Kodai Senga has also been elite when healthy this season. And, frankly, during his entire MLB career. After a slow start to his career, Senga made a huge change midway through the 2023 season to lean into the cutter more as a strike pitch, and he was lights out in the second half of the season. He then battled injuries in 2024 and again this season, but he also has a 1.39 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 74/33 K/BB ratio in 77.2 innings this season. He’s healthy now and pitching for a really good team in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, and I could easily see him finishing the season as a top-20 arm.

Discussions about his inclusion in the All-Star Game aside, Jacob Misiorowski has been so good since being promoted. He’s posted a 2.81 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 33/11 K/BB ratio in 25.2 innings. He has elite swing and miss stuff and passes the eye test in every way imaginable. When you watch him pitch, it’s easy to see how he could be one of the most dominant pitchers in the game. But he’s also made just five MLB starts and has a history in the minors of inconsistent command. This feels a little bit like hedging my bet against a small sample size.

Both MacKenzie Gore and Cristopher Sanchez have taken big steps forward this season in believable ways. Sanchez didn’t add the cutter we heard so much about in the spring, but his velocity is up, while Gore has added a cutter that has given him a deeper and more stable pitch mix. Gore has more strikeout upside and the higher ceiling, but Sanchez feels like a better bet for solid ratios with slightly less volatility. They both don’t feel “safe” enough to be in the next tier, but they also have too much upside to be in the tier below the injured starters.

These pitchers all feel safe to me, but lack the upside of the pitchers above. I know Nathan Eovaldi and Ranger Suarez are pitching better than a lot of the pitchers ranked ahead of them, but both of those guys also have long track records of success, and we know where their true talent lies. Eovaldi has leaned into the curveball more this year and could arguably be in the tier above, but I just feel better about both of them as top-tier SP2s in fantasy. Similar to Sonny Gray, who is 11th in SIERA among starters with at least 30 innings pitched this season and also 12th in K-BB%. However, he gives up a lot of contact, and I buy his 3.50 ERA more than his 3.05 SIERA.

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Kris Bubic has been a revelation this season for the Royals and probably the best “sleeper” pick from the pre-season. However, his 3.56 SIERA is not as convinced by his early-season performance, and his strikeout upside is fine but not great. Pair that with an average walk rate and being 12 innings away from hitting his career high, and I think we’re going to get some regression from Bubic in the second half.

These pitchers all have the upside to be top 15 starters in fantasy leagues, but they’re either currently hurt or recovering from injuries. As of now, Cole Ragans has just begun a throwing program, so he likely won’t be back until mid-August. Michael King expects to be back in the early to middle part of August, and Hunter Greene just had a setback with his groin that wasn’t a setback but was also kind of a setback. Blake Snell began his rehab assignment on Tuesday, and Shohei Ohtani is already up to three-inning starts in MLB action, which means he could be a traditional five-inning starter by the beginning of August.

Eury Perez is the only guy who is currently pitching in big league games and pitching deep into games, but he also missed all of last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and so I expected some volatility over the final few months of the season. His last three starts have shown us that he has ace upside, which is why he’s in this tier, but he feels far less safe than the pitchers ranked above him. I recorded a video about him today, so make sure you visit the NBC Sports website to check that out.

All four of these guys are veterans who have showcased legitimate strikeout upside in their recent starts, but also are prone to some blow-up starts or prolonged periods of mediocre results, which makes them a little more volatile as fantasy assets. Jesus Luzardo has ridden that rollercoaster within this season alone, and while Nick Pivetta has been tremendous this season, he has also never posted an ERA under 4.00 in his career. Could his new home park have mitigated his home run risk enough to change that? Sure, but we also have to acknowledge his streaky track record. Same goes for Freddy Peralta, who no longer has the elite four-seam fastball he showcased in 2021 and 2023.

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Sean Manaea might be the biggest risk of this group because he has made only one start this season due to oblique injuries, and much of his success came from an angle arm and pitch mix change the Mets made last year. However, Manaea also looked really good in his first innings on Sunday, and I’m willing to buy in big time.

All of these pitchers have, at one point, flashed ace upside. Some of them, like Brandon Woodruff, Yu Darvish, and Luis Castillo, have perhaps aged out of their role as aces; however, I do think all three veterans still have value. Woodruff came back from injury with a new pitch mix that I think will help him to continue to post strong ratios and decent strikeout totals, even without his previous level of stuff. Darvish was good when healthy last season, and his pitches look good right now from a raw movement and velocity standpoint. Castillo is probably my least favorite of the three, but he has a long enough track record of success and has produced solid enough results this year, even without his usual strikeout upside.

Jack Flaherty rebounded from his potential stretch of pitch tipping, and his curveball remains a really solid pitch, which I think will carry him through the season as a useful starting pitcher in all league types.

Ryan Pepiot hasn’t consistently built on the mini-breakout he had last year in his first season in Tampa Bay. His ERA has improved, but the strikeouts have dropped, and he’s allowing more hard contact than last season. His fastball is missing fewer bats and getting hit harder, and the slider to righties is in the zone more and not getting as many swings and misses. Could he get back to more of what he was doing last season? Of course, but I’m not sure if he will. It’s a similar story for Tanner Bibee, who doesn’t deserve to be pitching as poorly as he does. His strikeout rate has plummeted, but he’s allowing less hard contact, and I think he’s just adjusting to a new pitch mix that has him throwing three fastball variations and a re-shaped slider. I like the idea of him using the four-seamer less often, and his command is still solid. I really do think he gets back on track in the second half.

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I guess you can consider me a Lucas Giolito “guy” because I was optimistic about him coming into last season, and I’m a believer in what he’s doing this year. I never truly believed he was as bad as many thought coming into 2024 before his injury. He was good for the first half of 2023 before the trade deadline and some off-field issues. The Red Sox have now gotten his velocity back up and revamped his slider, which has raised Giolito’s floor again. His once elite changeup has been inconsistent, but he also hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since 2023, so we should expect inconsistency. However, Giolito, with a good fastball, remains a solid starting pitcher.

Here is where we get to pitchers that I really like, who I may have ranked higher in the pre-season because I was focusing primarily on their upside. Now, I want to acknowledge their inconsistency and the risk that comes with that. If you want to lean into risk to chase upside, then this is the list of names for you to target in trades coming out of the All-Star break.

Shane Baz, like Jack Flaherty, had some issues with pitch tipping earlier in the season, but he has rebounded from that and put together a good stretch of production. He has added a cutter, which is a good third pitch for him, but it’s not an exciting one. It’s just a pitch he can command for strikes. He will still live and die with the four-seam fastball and curve, but those are both good pitches, so I’m OK with it.

Gavin Williams was my preseason pick for just about every pitcher breakout or sleeper question. It hasn’t come to fruition yet, but we’ve also seen him integrate his cutter back into the mix and now add a sinker that he can throw for strikes to righties. The pieces are there, and we see them come together in some starts, but in others, the command is all over the place. It’s clear that Williams is still learning how to pitch instead of just throw, and I didn’t expect that to be the case this deep into the season. If it all clicks, it’s going to be glorious, but that might not be until 2026.

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Nick Lodolo has stayed healthy this year, but has seen his strikeout rate continue to drop for the second straight season. The decrease in walk rate is great, but can we get some of those strikeouts back, please? Edward Cabrera has also shown better command since he went to the sinker as his primary fastball, but he’s now battling an arm injury on top of his consistency issues, so there’s a chance he lands on the IL at some point. Or he remains healthy and gets traded to the Mets or Cubs, as is rumored, and takes off in the second half. He’s a tough rank.

Landen Roupp is another pitcher that I like who has seen his strikeout rate decline. He changed his pitch mix this year to combat his struggles against lefties, and he has a 2.44 ERA over his last 13 starts. Can he get back some of that minor league strikeout upside? It’s kind of a similar story for Chase Burns, who has found that his four-seam fastball is far more hittable at the big league level because of its mediocre shape and extension. The slider is great, so maybe he can make adjustments to thrive against MLB hitters, but it’s hard to ask young pitchers to do that on the fly.

Matthew Boyd has been great this year, and maybe I should have him higher. However, he’s almost thrown more innings than he did COMBINED over the last three years, and we’ve already seen him go through stretches where his changeup and four-seam fastball command falters. I’m skeptical that he can keep this up over the remainder of the season.

Yes, Shane McClanahan began his rehab assignment, and yes, he is an ace, so he could be in the tier with guys like Michael King, but we haven’t seen McClanahan on a big league mound since 2023, and he had both Tommy John surgery and a nerve issue, so I have no idea what we’re going to get from him. I expect him to pitch for Tampa Bay by mid-August, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he were inconsistent and hard to use in fantasy leagues until his final two or three starts of the season. Same goes for Shane Bieber, who also began his rehab assignment this week, but also missed most of last season with Tommy John and had a setback this year.

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Luis Gil has begun his rehab assignment and looked good in Double-A, so while he doesn’t have the upside of McClanahan and Bieber, I think he’s safer than them for this season, which is why they’re in the same tier. Along with Spencer Arrighetti, who has the lowest upside of the group (well, maybe slightly better than Gil), but he also doesn’t have an arm injury since he fractured his thumb while getting hit by a ball in batting practice. I have the most confidence in him remaining healthy for the remainder of the season, which means he could make six or seven good starts for the Astros.

You’ll have no issues with these pitchers. They’re all pretty solid arms on pretty solid teams, and they’ll hardly ever get lit up, but they also don’t have the upside of the guys in the tiers above them. In deeper formats, you may want to put these “safer” pitchers above the “upside” pitchers, and that’s totally fine. Adjust for your context.

Seth Lugo has done this before, and we know what to expect from him. He’s just rock solid. As is Merrill Kelly, who may be the best pitcher on the Diamondbacks team right now. Zach Eflin should be back from the IL when the All-Star break is over, and I’m not reading too much into his 2025 stats as he’s battled multiple injuries already this year. If he’s healthy, we know that he can be a fine but not elite starter. David Peterson and Andrew Abbott have both had nice starts to the season, but their modest strikeout rates will always limit their ceiling and increase their risk a bit. Peterson also has some innings concerns, and Abbott has his home park concern as well.

Lastly, we have Grant Holmes, who has pitched well for Atlanta this year and is locked into their rotation. However, he has a bad four-seam fastball, so his entire pitch mix is based on hiding that. When his secondaries are cooking, he’s really good, but it’s hard to consistently rely on a pitcher with a bad fastball because that’s the foundation of a pitcher’s success at the big league level. That’s what limits Holmes’ upside in my eyes, but this is not a bad tier to be in.

I like all of these pitchers, and if they were in more secure roles, they’d likely be higher up in these rankings.

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Clay Holmes and Will Warren are both in their first year as starting pitchers at the MLB level, and we know their teams are going to monitor their innings. It has been said publicly. Will that mean phantom IL stints? Will that mean skipped starts? Will that mean piggybacking? We have no idea, but we do know there will be some maneuvering in the second half, and so that has to be taken into account when we do rest-of-season rankings.

Emmett Sheehan has looked great in his MLB appearances this season, but he’s coming back from missing all of last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and the Dodgers are set to get Blake Snell back and expand Shohei Ohtani’s pitch count so that he can be a traditional five-inning starter. Where does that leave Sheehan? There’s too much uncertainty for me to rank him higher.

Joe Boyle was the hardest pitcher for me to rank. As of now, the rumors are that the Rays are sticking with their original five-man rotation and Drew Rasmussen will go back to being a five-inning starter, which means Boyle loses almost all of his value. But there are also trade rumors around Taj Bradley and Zack Littell. Could one of those pitchers be dealt and then have Boyle inserted into the starting rotation again? What if the rumors about Ramussen working five innings again are wrong? We’ll probably have our answer in a week or two, but as of right now, I’m holding onto Boyle until I know for sure what Tampa Bay is planning to do.

All of these pitchers are guys who I think can put together a really strong second half, but I also have to acknowledge that their first half was not particularly strong.

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Both Yusei Kikuchi and his teammate, Jose Soriano, have put together dominant outings, but they have also gotten hit hard by teams they should have handled. When it’s hard to rely on a pitcher from start to start, it’s hard to rank them higher than this, but we know that both of these guys can go on a run where they are truly valuable for you.

Zebby Matthews, Sawyer Gipson-Long, and Reese Olson have all battled injuries in the first half of the season, which limited innings and effectiveness. I think Olson has the lowest ceiling of the three, but probably the safest floor. Gipson-Long is intriguing and talented, but he also missed all of last season following Tommy John surgery, so I have no idea how much Detroit is willing to push him. I love Zebby Matthews. In the off-season, I said he had the talent to be a top 25 starting pitcher. He has been hurt and stuck in the minors, but he’s begun his rehab assignment and could return to the Twins’ rotation in a week or two. I’m more than happy to take a gamble on him.

Michael Soroka has underlying metrics that suggest he should have had much better success than he has so far, and I think he could become a solid streamer that you hold on your roster and just bench when he faces one of the better offenses in the league. Trevor Rogers has also pitched his way back into the Orioles’ rotation, and while this is still not the 2021 version of Rogers, what we’re seeing from him, with increased velocity, is better than the version of him we saw for the last two seasons.

Lastly, Ryne Nelson is now in the Diamondbacks’ rotation but really only has one pitch, so I like him, but I don’t love him, and Bubba Chandler has to be getting promoted soon. Right? RIGHT!?

These guys are pitchers that I like for deeper formats. They’re not pitchers who I think have high upside, and they’re also not pitchers I trust against really good offenses.

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Yes, I know Casey Mize, Matthew Liberatore, and Jose Berrios have had strong seasons so far, but they don’t miss a lot of bats, and they are prone to giving up hard contact when their command falters, so I think of them more as 15-team league options. If you’re in a 15-team league, you may very well have them ranked ahead of the two tiers above them, and that’s totally understandable and likely the right way to approach it.

Brayan Bello has made huge strides this year, and I have been a fan for a while, so I’m trying to keep my expectations in check. Right now, this version of Bello features 85% usage of three types of fastballs and no secondaries that consistently miss bats. That has led to lots of groundballs and good ratios, but limited strikeout upside. Maybe one of those secondaries emerges and he truly takes off, but if it doesn’t, then I think he’s a solid arm who will give up a lot of contact, which can always make him at risk of getting dinked and dunked into a bad statline.

Kevin Gausman found his splitter for a time this season, and Charlie Morton has found his curve now, but both of these guys are veterans who rely on one pitch for basically all of their success. When it’s clicking, they’ll be good, but we’ve seen them both be harmful in fantasy leagues just this season when that pitch leaves them. That makes them hard to trust.

Zac Gallen just gives up too much hard contact for me. He has for the last few seasons. He just relies so much on location and pitch sequencing for success, and when those are off, then it doesn’t matter who he’s facing. That’s why he dominated against the Giants and Padres but got lit up by the White Sox and Angels. He just walks such a tightrope every time he pitches.

All three of these pitchers should return soon after the All-Star break, but I have no idea how healthy or effective they will be. I think a lot of Bailey Ober’s struggles were because of his hip impingement, but if I’m wrong, he was just awful for about 4-6 weeks. Aaron Nola has struggled before landing on the IL. Was he hurt the whole time, or are they using this lengthy absence to help correct some mechanical or pitch mix issues that caused his struggles? Does Nestor Cortes even have a rotation spot to return to? Will he be traded?

I like all of these pitchers for different reasons, but they also all have clear flaws that will lead to some poor starts, and they also have tenuous rotation spots. All of them could be bumped from their respective rotations by the end of July, and it wouldn’t surprise me, so I have to take that into account while ranking them.

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I would say my best bets for maintaining a rotation spot and fantasy value for the remainder of the season are Slade Cecconi, Richard Fitts, and Brandon Walter. If you’re just looking for a few weeks of good production, I do think Cam Schlittler is good, and Quinn Priester has proven himself to be a solid, high-floor, low-ceiling option.

If this Luis L. Ortiz investigation leads to a suspension or to Joey Cantillo being in the Guardians rotation for good, then I would be more than happy to roll the dice on his strikeout upside.

All of these guys have shown us flashes of excellence in their careers, but it’s truly hard to trust them based on how they’re pitching right now. I’m sure you’ll add them or stream them for a time, but they’re not guys I’m excited to roster right now.

When will these guys be back? Will they be back this season? Will they be good when they’re back? Just far too many questions here for me to confidently rank any of these guys ahead of pitchers who are healthy or closer to a return.

These are deep-league arms that are fine but unlikely to be a clear asset for your fantasy team. They’ll be helpful in those formats if you can pick the right matchups for them.

All of these guys could have fantasy relevance if they wind up in an MLB starting rotation, but they’re not currently there, and no call-ups are imminent, so, for now, they’re just names to keep in the back of your head.

All of these guys have major innings concerns for me based on exceeding previous workload (Dustin May, Shane Smith) not currently being in their MLB rotations (Tobias Myers, Luis L. Ortiz), not currently being healthy or having been good when they were healthy (Roki Sasaki, Tanner Houck), or potentially being booted from their rotation after a trade (Hayden Birdsong).

These guys have rotation spots, and I doubt they lose them. They’re also not very exciting for fantasy leagues, but sometimes, consistent innings are just the most important thing to you.