Fantasy Baseball Skill and Luck Factors: It’s surprising to see these 5 hitters struggling — can they rebound?

In our final hitter skill and luck factor article, we’re covering five hitters who were drafted within the top 150-200 picks and have been struggling relative to expectations. Most of these hitters have strong track records of fantasy baseball production, so it’s unusual to find them struggling so far this season. For others, it seems like 2026 might be an outlier season for various reasons. Can these hitters bounce back for the rest of the season? What do the underlying metrics suggest in the skill and luck factors?

Gunnar Henderson, SS, Orioles (99% Rostered)

In late May, I expected Henderson to turn it around based on his track record. Among the first-round hitters, Aaron Judge, Ronald Acuña Jr., José Ramírez, Henderson and Kyle Tucker have been the worst values. Injuries can explain Judge and Acuña, but Tucker and Henderson haven’t missed much time. Henderson used to have a patient approach, with a career chase rate at 26.3%. However, Henderson has been chasing more often (31.76%) this season, with similar swing and zone swing rates. 

He seems to be swinging more at pitches in the shadow zone, which is the edge of the strike zone. That’s evident in Henderson’s shadow zone swing rate at 58.7% compared to a career norm of 51.5%. With Henderson chasing more, it seems to be directly impacting his lower batting average (.219), BABIP (.253) and on-base skills (.290). For context, Henderson’s batting average, BABIP and OBP have been around 40 points below his career average.

He continues to pull the ball way more this season (45.2%), up over five points from his career average. Thankfully, Henderson is pulling the ball into the air (24.3%) more frequently, compared to a career pulled air rate of 16.8%. Previously, we’ve seen more all-fields power from Henderson, but only one of his 18 home runs wasn’t toward his pull side. 

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It’s slightly concerning to see Henderson’s barrel rate per plate appearance dip to 4.8%, which would be a career low, compared to peak seasons at 7.4% (2023 and 2024). That aligns with Henderson’s 21.9% barrel rate per plate appearance and 96.1 mph average exit velocity on pulled flyballs and line drives this season. Both metrics are down from 2025 and previous seasons, as seen below.

From a home run output standpoint, it’s working for Henderson to pull those balls into the air for barrels and homers. He is on pace for 28 home runs, with the potential for 30. After stealing 30 bases last season, his stolen base opportunity rate is down to 12% from 21% (2025). He hasn’t been converting his chances into steals well this season, with a 66% conversion rate, compared to 84-85% in the previous two seasons.

Even if Henderson reaches 25-30 home runs and 15-20 stolen bases, the significantly lower batting average will tank his fantasy value. It could present a buy-low window in most leagues or an expected discount in 2027. I’m still holding out hope that Henderson will turn it around from a batting average standpoint. 

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Jakob Marsee, OF, Marlins (49% Rostered)

After five home runs, 14 stolen bases and a .292 batting average across 234 plate appearances last season, some were projecting that over a full season. Unfortunately, Marsee surpassed his previous season total of plate appearances with similar home runs (5) and stolen bases (19) with a brutal .197 batting average. Marsee’s walk rate increased to 13.1% this season, supported by a lower zone swing rate (57.3%). For context, Marsee’s zone swing rate dipped by over five percentage points compared to last season. 

Though that has helped Marsee’s OBP, his BABIP deflated by over 100 points, causing the batting average to plummet. If a hitter has a batting average below .200, they better be crushing in multiple categories. That’s especially true considering Marsee is a 1-2 category specialist. He continues to run often, with a 28% stolen base opportunity rate this season, which is down from 35% last year. Unfortunately, Marsee has been struggling to convert his chances into steals (63%), which was an issue last season (70%).

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Thankfully, Marsee is a strong defender, with a 92nd-percentile Outs Above Average, who is fast (61st-percentile Sprint Speed). Power hasn’t been his calling card, but Marsee is pulling the ball into the air (21.2%) more often, up from 14.8% last season. That’s further evident in Marsee’s 2.1% barrel rate per plate appearance. 

There’s a chance Marsee’s BABIP will regress, but this is the challenge with a 1-2 category player without the track record in the majors. Fantasy managers are better off streaming batting average and steals if they’ve been hoping for some from Marsee. 

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Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B, Royals (60% Rostered)

Before Pasquantino landed on the injured list in mid-June with a hamate bone injury, he was struggling. He had six home runs, three steals and a .224 batting average across 291 plate appearances. That came with a 5.2% barrel rate per plate appearance, 70.2 mph bat speed and an 85.8% contact rate through mid-June. 

Since Pasquantino returned from the injured list, the batting average has been better (.282 BA) with zero home runs and one steal, supported by a .367 BABIP. It’s a small sample since July 11, so there’s a chance it’s fluky. With the walls moving in their home park, I expected the Royals’ hitters to show more power this season. Unfortunately, the opposite has been true. 

Pasquantino has a career-low 4.8% barrel rate per plate appearance, most of which came from before his injury. He continues to pull the ball into the air (22.8%) often, so his approach hasn’t changed. Pasquantino’s Exit Velocity 50 (EV50) has only dipped by 1 mph to 99.3 mph this season, so he continues to hit the ball hard. It seems like Pasquantino’s bat speed and average exit velocity on pulled line drives and flyballs might be the issue. Pasquantino’s 71.1 mph bat speed pulled balls into the air dropped from 74.4 mph (2025), coinciding with a 2 mph decline in average exit velocity.

That might indicate he is battling through an injury or maybe 2025 was the outlier with a 30+ home run season, though he has shown above-average barrel rates throughout his career. Keep tabs on Pasquantino’s exit velocity and bat speed on pulled batted balls because that could suggest the power is coming around, especially during the summer months. 

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In shallower formats, I probably wouldn’t buy low because you’re banking on power that might not be there.

Ezequiel Tovar, SS, Rockies (34% Rostered)

After a peak season in 2024, we assumed Tovar’s hip and strained oblique that caused him to miss two months were the culprit for a down 2025 season. After Tovar rocked higher BABIPs, it plummeted to .244, causing his batting average to decline to .198. For context, Tovar’s BABIP is 70 points lower than his career average, with the batting average around 50 points below the career norm. There’s a chance his BABIP regresses, especially if his 17.6% line drive rate rises back toward his career average (22.4%). 

Tovar has been struggling so often that the Rockies moved him from the middle of the lineup in the first month to the bottom third for the most part. A major concern for Tovar throughout his career was the aggressive approach with a 44.7% chase rate and a whopping 16.1% swinging-strike rate. For context, Tovar’s chase rate was 15 points higher with a swinging-strike rate that’s five points above the league norm. Though he is only 24 years old, his aggressive approach can hit a cliff as he ages. 

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Tovar’s 4.3% barrel rate per plate appearance is down over one point from his career norm. He has shown above-average barrel rates in the past (career 5.7%), though he might need volume to compile his way to 15-20 home runs. Tovar has been converting 83% of his stolen base chances this season while running at the same rate (9%). Throughout his career, Tovar had a 65% stolen base conversion rate, so his 2026 success might be unexpected. 

The projections expect Tovar to hit 15 home runs and eight stolen bases with a .250 to .260 batting average. It would take plenty of luck for Tovar’s BABIP and batting average to bounce back in his favor. He might be droppable in most shallower formats, which we’ve seen based on the roster percentage. 

Teoscar Hernández, OF, Dodgers (78% Rostered)

Hernández had a Grade 1 hamstring strain in late May, causing him to miss one month. After hitting 25+ home runs in five consecutive seasons, Hernández might not reach 20 this season due to the injury and his power being down. Hernández has a 5.5% barrel rate per plate appearance, down over three points from his career average. Furthermore, Hernández’s EV50 fell from 101.8 mph (No. 81) in 2025 to 100.3 mph this season. 

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Interestingly, Hernández has been more passive this season, swinging 46.1% of the time, down over four points from his career average. He might benefit from being more aggressive, especially since his power and exit velocity numbers have typically been high. With a hitter like Hernández’s extensive track record, we’re banking on the exit velocity and barrel rates to bounce back for the rest of the season.

Hernández used to hit offspeed pitches well, but that hasn’t been the case this season. He has a .300 wOBA (.302 xwOBA), an 85.5 mph exit velocity and 4.3% barrel rate per plate appearance against offspeed pitches this season. Maybe last season should’ve been a sign because Hernández had a .322 wOBA (.266 xwOBA), an 86.7 mph exit velocity and 7.2% barrel rate against offspeed pitches. For context, Hernández rocked a wOBA higher than .400 against offspeed pitches in 2023 and 2024. 

This is a case where most fantasy managers have been trusting Hernández’s track record and leaving him in the lineup. However, Hernández has been struggling compared to his pre-season value. My gut says hold, but fantasy managers can cut and stream in shallower formats.