When it comes to fantasy sports, we love a breakout. We spend days analyzing (or reading about) metrics that might suggest a player set to hit a new level or emerge into a role we never saw coming for them. However, the consequence of that is we tend to almost immediately discard players who don’t produce in the way we hoped. Draft rooms are littered with former “favorites” who we now sneer at as we scroll passed their names.
But post-hype sleepers have feelings too. As well as the ability to make a real difference on your fantasy teams.
This is the second season of me writing this article where I take a look at some post-hype hitters who I think could provide major value based on where they’re going in drafts. While I missed on more than I hit on last year, that’s the nature of these kinds of articles. We had some huge breakouts with Luis Garcia Jr., who was going undrafted, Colton Cowser, JJ Bleday, and Michael Busch, so hopefully, we can find some similar success this year.
As a reminder, post-hype here means somebody who was either a top prospect or had some buzz in previous seasons but failed to live up to that. They need to have languished in the minors for longer than expected or struggled in an extended major league attempt. Since they’re no longer hyped, they also need to be going outside of the top 200 in current drafts, which means none of these are slam dunk choices to outproduce their draft value, but they’re guys who I think can if given the chance.
All ADP data is taken from NFBC Rotowire Online Championship drafts up until February 6th (22 drafts)
Parker Meadows – OF, Detroit Tigers (ADP: 183)
OK, Parker Meadows didn’t meet the ADP criteria, so I’m fudging this already, but I think he’s being drafted too late, so I wanted to include him. Parker Meadows was my pick for “Who’s the Next Josh Lowe” when I published the column last year, but a slow start and injuries prevented that from coming to fruition. Still, I’m back in on Meadows this year. In that article, I mentioned that I believed Meadows had the minor league batted ball quality and approach to be a .260 hitter who would hit 15 home runs at spacious Comerica Park but also steal 20+ bases while playing every day because of his strong defense in center field. That didn’t pan out in 2024, but Meadows looked good at the end of the season after coming off the IL, and George Bissell also had Meadows as a breakout candidate in our staff hitter article.
I fully support George’s belief that the .296/.340/.500 triple-slash line with five homers and five steals over Meadows’ final 47 games feels like an example of his true talent ceiling. He’s going to lead off against right-handed pitching and could push for 20 home runs with 25 steals and a good batting average with my previous stat projections as his safer floor. Meadows also performed pretty well against lefties in 2024, and over the final month of the season, he remained in the lineup against lefties but hit lower in the order, which gives him some safety from a platoon. I gave Meadows just a .255 average for the year, but he comes out as my 106th-ranked hitter, so there is tons of value where he’s going in drafts.
Jordan Walker – OF, St. Louis Cardinals (ADP: 274)
Jordan Walker’s current ADP is not much higher than where I have him ranked, which is my 232nd player off the board, but he fits the post-hype definition perfectly. Walker was the 4th-overall prospect, according to MLB Pipeline, ahead of the 2023 season and went on to hit .276/.342/.445 with 16 home runs and seven steals in 465 plate appearances as a 21-year-old. Of course, we also know that came with a much-publicized demotion to Triple-A at the beginning of the season. Walker then started 2024 with the Cardinals but hit just .155 in 20 games with 18 strikeouts and no home runs and was demoted again.
So why am I interested in Walker this year? Well, for starters, he’ll be just 23 years old, was a universally recognized elite prospect, and is on a Cardinals team that now finally appears to be settling into a rebuild, which should mean more leash than he had in years past. Also, after being called back up in the final month of last season, Walker hit .253/.286/.494 with five home runs and 16 RBI in 24 games. Now, that’s not elite production, and the 26.4% strikeout rate it came with is a bit higher than you’d like to see but Walker has hit .255/.317/.423 in 168 career MLB games. That’s not bad, and that’s with him being viewed as a disappointment. Walker spent the off-season working with his new hitting coach to get back to his original swing and fix his hand placement, which prevented him from getting a consistent bat path. I think it’s too early to write off Walker, so I’ll be trying to get some shares of him this season.
Connor Norby – 3B, Miami Marlins (ADP: 293)
Connor Norby was a central part of the much-hyped Baltimore Orioles prospect class heading into last year. He never consistently cracked overall top 100 lists, but he was the Orioles’ 11th-ranked prospect in 2022 back when Adley Rutschman and Grayson Rodriguez still qualified, and was their 7th-ranked prospect heading into last season, trailing only the big names like Jackson Holliday, Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo, etc. His brief time in Baltimore wasn’t great in 2024, but he was better in Miami after being traded, slashing .247/.315/.445 with seven home runs and three steals in 36 games. He now enters 2025 as Miami’s starting third baseman and will likely hit second in the lineup behind Xavier Edwards and ahead of, well, anybody else Miami has who seems like they can hit. That opportunity is worth something, even on a team as bad as Miami is likely to be.
Now, there are some legitimate concerns here. In 194 MLB plate appearances last year, Norby posted a 33% strikeout rate and a 19.1% swinging strike rate, which was 3rd-percentile in baseball. He’s an aggressive hitter who had a 97th-percentile swing rate and a 38% chase rate that was 10th-percentile in baseball. As you can expect, his contact metrics were also pretty poor. While those numbers are slightly more aggressive than he was in the minors, he’s always been an aggressive hitter; yet, he’s also a talented one. He posted a 14.8% barrel rate in his MLB at-bats with a 47% Ideal Contact Rate and 93rd-percentile exit velocity on fly balls and line drives. His overall exit velocity numbers were bad, but a lot of that had to do with his aggressive approach, leading to more weak contact than we’d like to see. When he squares the ball up, he can do some damage. He also boasts 94th-percentile sprint speed which could enable him to steal 10+ bases if Miami lets him run. So even though I don’t love Norby’s approach, it’s hard to deny his physical tools. If he hits .240-.250 with 15 home runs and 10 steals while playing every day in Miami, that could make him a top 200 overall player and he’s being drafted around pick 300 now, which means there’s value here even with the flaws.
Jonathan Aranda – 1B, Tampa Bay Rays (ADP: 321)
It seems like Aranda has been on the fringes of relevance for a few years now, but he just can’t seem to get regular at-bats in Tampa Bay, which has been a problem for plenty of prospects in the past. Despite making his MLB debut in 2022, Aranda has just 333 career MLB plate appearances. Some of that has to do with his poor defense which limits him to being just a first baseman, but Tampa Bay is set to give him a chance to be the designated hitter against right-handed pitching, and some trade rumors are circulating about Yandy Diaz, so perhaps Aranda can start games at first base as well. For his MLB career, he has slashed just .133/.257/.200 in 35 plate appearances against lefties, and Tampa Bay doesn’t seem to want him in those situations, so Aranda is likely just a 400-450 plate appearance hitter in 2025.
Yet, there can be some value in those plate appearances. In his 32 Triple-A games in 2024, Aranda hit .237 with seven home runs and a 32.6% strikeout rate, which is significantly worse than his typical minor league season. When he finally got MLB at-bats at the end of the season, he posted an impressive 16.5% barrel rate and showed improved plate discipline from his MLB at-bats in 2023. Aranda has good hard-hit rates and has top-tier exit velocities when he gets the ball in the air, but he also posted a 49% groundball rate with the Rays. Those numbers drop down to about 37% in Triple-A, and even though he doesn’t lift the ball a ton, he pulls the ball often and, historically, has made a good deal of contact. If Aranda can cut back on his groundball rate, he could hit 15+ home runs with a usable batting average in a decent lineup. I think the upside is a bit more limited than some of the other names on this list due to playing time concerns, but the skills are good.
Jordan Lawlar – SS, Arizona Diamondbacks (ADP: 325)
Jordan Lawlar is currently the 11th-ranked prospect in all of baseball, according to MLB Pipeline, but it seems like he’s being forgotten since he played just 23 games in 2024 due to injury. In those 23 minor league games, he slashed .318/.417/482 with two home runs and six steals to go along with a 13.5% walk rate. Lawlar has always made enough contact and shown a good feel for the strike zone while also having the ability to barrel the ball which has led some scouting services to give him plus raw power grades. He pulls the ball enough to get to that power but has more of a line drive approach, which is fine because he’s also an elite runner. When you add that to his above-average defense, you get a really solid all-around player.
Heading into spring training, there is plenty of hype around prospects like Matt Shaw, Jasson Dominguez, Dalton Rushing, and Colson Montgomery, but all of those guys are ranked behind Lawlar on top prospect lists. Now, that’s not to say they will be worse players, but it’s just to suggest that we should probably be discussing Lawlar in a similar vein. He will head into spring training fully healthy and simply has to beat out Geraldo Perdomo for the starting shortstop gig in Arizona. Perdomo has been fine for Arizona, but he graded out below-average defensively at shortstop last year and is not nearly as impactful a hitter as Lawlar is. Considering Perdomo also has MLB experience at 2B and 3B, he could easily be moved to a utility infield role if Lawlar looks good this spring.
Trevor Larnach – OF, Minnesota Twins (ADP: 414, 335 January ADP overall)
I picked Trevor Larnach as my hitter breakout when the Rotoworld baseball staff gave our selection for this season. While he was never a huge prospect like some of the names on this list, he was the 20th overall pick in 2018 and was ranked as the third-best prospect in the Twins organization in 2020 and 2021. So far, Larnach has posted a .236/.323/.403 career slash line in 300 games with 136 home runs and a nearly 30% strikeout rate. However, I saw a few things in 2024 that piqued my interest.
For starters, having Trevor Larnarch as a post-hype pick is about opportunity and draft cost. In NFBC drafts, Larnach is going off the board around pick 440 heading into February. That surprises me considering Larnach is now the starting DH in Minnesota with Max Kepler signing with the Phillies and Alex Kirilloff retiring. The Twins are the most platoon-heavy team in baseball, so Larnach won’t play against lefties, but in 2024 he slashed .261/.342/.441 with 15 home runs, a 9.9% barrel rate, an 85.8% zone contact rate, and a 12.2% swinging strike rate in 377 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers last year. Plus, as the season went on, Larnach increased his fly ball rate which led to six home runs in 182 plate appearances in the second half and his OPS jumping from .738 in the first half to .811 to go along with a .272 batting average. Add to that the fact that Larnach took a slightly more aggressive approach in 2024 and cut his swinging strike rate by 3% and his strikeout rate overall down to 22.3% and I’m even more interested. The lack of competition for his role means Larnach should see around 500 plate appearances with a .260 average, 20 home runs, and some chip-in steals while hitting in the middle of the batting order. He’ll be more valuable in daily moves leagues, but I think he’s going over 150 picks too late right now.
Jose Miranda – 3B, Minnesota Twins (ADP: 471, 353 January ADP overall)
I honestly didn’t think I’d have Miranda on here, but this ADP is a bit wild to me. Miranda emerged onto the prospect scene in 2022 when he was the Twins’ third-ranked prospect thanks to a 2021 season split between Double-A and Triple-A where he hit .344/.401/.572 in 127 games with 30 home runs, 97 runs scored, and 94 RBI. Not so bad. He was fine for the Twins in 2022 but not electric and only played 40 games for them in 2023 as he continued to struggle to get his footing at the big league level. 2024 was better with a .284/.322/.441 slash line in 121 games, but the power did not carry over with just nine home runs. As a result, it seems that people are over Miranda.
Here’s why I’m not. For starters, with Carlos Santana signing in Cleveland, Miranda seems like the everyday first baseman in Minnesota. The Twins could play Edouard Julien there, but he has just 19 innings of MLB work at first base and only seven games of experience in the high minors. Julien has also not proven to be a significantly better hitter at the MLB level than Miranda at this point in their careers, and Miranda has a better minor-league track record. Miranda was also a pretty darn good hitter for much of last season. In 276 plate appearances between the start of the season and July 10th, Miranda hit .325/.366/.522 with nine home runs, a .196 ISO, a 7.2% barrel rate, and a 39% Ideal Contact Rate that was above league average. All with his typical solid contact rates. Then, on July 11th, Miranda was placed on the IL with back tightness and was not the same hitter when he returned.
From July 27th on, Miranda hit .212/.242/.301 in 153 plate appearances with no home runs, a .089 ISO, a 1.7% barrel rate, and a 27% Ideal Contact Rate. Those are pretty stark differences that should suggest he was not fully healthy. His opposite-field hit rate also jumped from 17% to 26.3%. Considering he was pitched outside 4% LESS OFTEN during this stretch, according to Pitcher List, it’s an indication that he wasn’t able to turn on the ball after coming back from his back injury. There’s enough evidence to suggest that a fully healthy Miranda is an above-average contact hitter with league-average barrel rates, average fly ball rates, and a slightly above-average fly ball approach. He’s never going to be a huge power threat, but that’s enough to believe that he could be a .280 hitter with 15+ home run power who will get 500 or more plate appearances in a decent lineup. I’m not sure why that profile is going this late in drafts. I have him hitting .274 this season with 15 home runs and just 130 Runs+RBI and that comes out to the 223rd-ranked player. I’m happy to take him in the 300s if he keeps falling in drafts.
Jordan Beck – OF, Colorado Rockies (ADP: UNDRAFTED, 482 January ADP overall)
When we get to post-hype picks who are going undrafted in current Online Championships, we’re taking big gambles. However, I had Colton Cowser on here last year when he was going undrafted, so sometimes those late gambles can pay off. A first-round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft, Beck was the 77th overall prospect heading into the 2024 season and proceeded to hit .319/.402/.558 with eight home runs and six steals in 39 Triple-A games in 2024, which led to his first crack at MLB at-bats. In that regard, I’m not so sure he’s post-hype; however, since he’s not being drafted at all, I think he’s more of a “never-hype” guy, so I still wanted to include him here. Although his surface-level MLB stats weren’t great last year, Beck did steal seven bases in 55 games for the Rockies while posting a 71st percentile Ideal Contact Rate (ICR). The 23-year-old also posted an elite 35.6% hard-hit rate in Triple-A and had a manageable 23.3% strikeout rate with a 12.2% walk rate. He is an aggressive hitter with some swing-and-miss in his profile, but he’s been a consistent line drive hitter in the minors and could hit .240 with 20 home runs and 20 steals if he were able to win a starting spot in Colorado’s outfield. Right now the only person blocking him is Sam Hilliard, so if Beck looks good in spring training, he might be a solid dart throw at the end of fantasy drafts.
Enmanuel Valdez – 2B, Pittsburgh Pirates (ADP: UNDRAFTED in all formats)
This is maybe my wildest prediction out there, and Valdez was never really a top prospect, but he hit .296 with 28 home runs and eight steals in the minor leagues split between the Astros and Red Sox in 2022 and then hit .266/.311/.453 with six home runs and five steals in 149 plate appearances with the Red Sox in his MLB debut, so there were a few people who thought he could win the starting second base job in Boston last season. When Vaughn Grissom got hurt, Valdez got his chance but hit just .214/.270/.363 in 223 plate appearances and was traded to the Pirates in the off-season to clear a 40-man roster spot. He will now battle with Nick Gonzales and another former Red Sox, Nick Yorke, for playing time at second base, and while he currently ranks third in that competition, Valdez is the only left-handed hitter of the bunch and has a 9.1% barrel rate in 372 MLB plate appearances. Despite his struggles last year, Valdez had just an 8.9% swinging strike rate, with an above-average 80% contact rate to go along with that solid barrel rate. He’s not going to set that fantasy world on fire, but he’s just 26 years old and entering his athletic prime. What if he wins the starting second base job, or plays only against righties, and hits .240-.250 with 15 home runs and 5-6 steals? It’s a long shot, but in deeper leagues that’s useful, and there is enough to like in Valdez’s batted ball profile that it could happen.
Eloy Jimenez – UT, Tampa Bay Rays (ADP: UNDRAFTED, 583 January ADP overall)
I’m stretching it a little bit with Eloy here, but I can’t shake the feeling that he’s in for a pretty decent year. If we’re also being technical, he had huge hype around him after his rookie year in 2019 and now everybody is ignoring him, as evidenced by him being undrafted in all Rotowire leagues so far. I have him as my 423rd-ranked player, so it’s not like I’m projecting some major breakout, but I think there is a clear path here to success. Injuries have certainly been to blame as Jiménez has played over 98 games in a season just once since then. He was a shell of himself in 2024 in 98 games with the White Sox and Orioles, but if you squint, you can see some upside. His contact rates have gone up considerably, and his swinging strike rates have fallen, while he continues to post top-tier exit velocities. The issue is that his fly ball rate is 3rd percentile in baseball, and he pulls the ball at a below-average mark. Going to Tampa Bay might help since the Rays love to have their hitters sell out for pull-side power. The Rays will also play their home games in a minor league stadium in Florida where the ball should be flying in the summer, so perhaps Jiménez can find some deep league value if the Rays revamp his approach.
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