The NHL announced that it will be exploring the idea of an expansion to add a 33rd team to the league, likely based in Texas, either in Austin or Houston. The arrival of a new franchise may throw a bit of a spanner in the works for existing teams, including the Montreal Canadiens. The expansion draft rules that were used for the Seattle Kraken worked out well for the league and should be expected to be the same when the next franchise arrives.
What would the Habs protection list look like if the draft was held next offseason? Well, firstly, it wouldn’t feature Ivan Demidov or Jacob Fowler since players with only one or two seasons of professional experience (AHL/NHL) are exempt from the expansion process. Montreal could choose one of two paths: protecting seven forwards, three defensemen, and one goaltender, or seven skaters and one goaltender.
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While the first option allows a team to protect more players, it’s not a great option for a team that has a lot of talent on the blueline, or that has no choice but to protect one of its blueliners because he has a full no-movement clause. The Canadiens actually fit both categories; they’ve got a lot of talent on the blueline, and Mike Matheson’s full NMC means that they have to protect him.
If the Habs were to go down the seven forwards and three defensemen route, they would therefore be able to add Lane Hutson and Noah Dobson to their protection list, which would already include Matheson, but they would have to leave Kaiden Guhle, David Reinbacher, Adam Engstrom, Alexandre Carrier (assuming he signs a new contract with the team) and depth defensemen Jayden Struble and Arber Xhekaj exposed. That would meet the likely exposure requirement for blueliners: expose one defenceman who is a) under contract in 2027-28 and b) played in 40 or more NHL games the prior season OR played in 70 or more NHL games in the prior two seasons.
In net, there is no question: Jakub Dobes would be protected since Fowler is exempt, but up front, it’s not that easy to pick which seven players Montreal would protect. Of course, the first line of Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky would be automatic. But who would be the other four? Alex Newhook, Jake Evans, Oliver Kapanen and Zachary Bolduc? If that’s the case, you leave players such as Alexandre Texier, Owen Beck and Florian Xhekaj exposed, but that doesn’t miss the exposure requirements, which would likely provide that teams must have two forwards available for selection who are a) under contract in 2027-28 and b) played in 40 or more NHL games the prior season OR played in 70 or more NHL games in the prior two seasons. If Montreal signed Phillip Danault and Josh Anderson to new contracts, they could be left unprotected and meet the requirements that way.
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If Hughes elected to use the eight skaters and one goalie option, Montreal would protect Dobes in net and have more leeway on the blueline. They would still have to protect Matheson, but they could also add Hutson, Dobson, and Guhle at the very least, perhaps even David Reinbacher. That would already give them five skaters, leaving three spots for Suzuki, Caufield and Slafkovsky. They would also meet the exposure requirements with Xhekaj, Struble and Engstrom exposed on the back end and Kapanen, Newhook, Evans, Texier, Xhekaj (Florian), and Beck all exposed up front.
It all comes down to who Hughes would be more willing to expose; it’s essentially about picking one’s poison. At this stage, it feels highly unlikely that Hughes would be willing to leave so many blueliners exposed, because there are some core pieces he couldn’t protect. Up front, the first line and Demidov are the four core pieces that have been identified with certainty, and they would all be protected if Montreal used the eight skaters and one goaltender avenue.
Of course, that situation could change if, for instance, the Canadiens were able to acquire another real top six piece through a trade, but we’d have to revisit the situation then. Whatever happens, however, this is not a simple exercise, and it must be a gut-wrenching experience for the GMs who have spent years carefully building their lineup to see someone pluck an asset just like that.
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