Denny Hamlin entered NASCAR’s Chase as the championship favorite, and one race hasn’t changed that. But Ryan Blaney and Team Penske are making a strong case to be his biggest threat.
Blaney left Darlington third in the standings, just 16 points behind Hamlin after gaining nine points on the championship leader. More importantly, the No. 12 has the performance to back up his position.
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NASCAR Insights ranked Blaney second in season-long speed and first in passing entering the Chase. Team Penske also addressed one of his biggest weaknesses before Darlington by swapping pit crews with Austin Cindric. Blaney’s previous crew ranked 32nd among full-time teams, while Cindric’s ranked 10th. Now the Chase heads to a track where Penske has consistently been strong.
Joey Logano owns a 3.5 average finish across the four Cup races at World Wide Technology Raceway and won the inaugural event in 2022. Cindric won in 2024, while Blaney has a 9.5 average finish and was leading late in 2024 before running out of fuel approaching the white flag. The challenge? Gateway works for Hamlin, too.
He won from the pole there last season and enters Sunday still holding the points lead. The larger Chase schedule may favor him even more. Hamlin entered the postseason ranked first in season-long speed, and NASCAR’s pre-Chase simulations gave him roughly a 50% chance of winning the championship.
That is what makes Blaney so interesting. He doesn’t need Hamlin to suddenly fall apart. He needs to keep doing exactly what he did at Darlington: stay close, take points when they are available and capitalize at tracks that fit Penske’s strengths. Gateway gives him the first major opportunity.
Hamlin remains the driver everyone is chasing. But nine races from Homestead, Blaney is close enough that Hamlin may want to start looking in his mirror.
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