Deebo Samuel trade landing spots: Broncos, Commanders, and Steelers are potential fits

The 49ers have granted Deebo Samuel permission to find a trade partner.

Samuel is due a $15.4 million option bonus on March 22nd, so the team will almost certainly make a decision before then. Trading him will move that option to his next team while saddling the 49ers with a $31.6 million dead cap hit. With an almost non-existent base salary, the bonus is a small price to pay for a team landing a former superstar wideout. The 49ers could also cut him with a post-June 1 designation ahead of the March 22 deadline, decreasing his cap hit to $10.8 million over the next two years. With the background info taken care of, here are the teams most likely to acquire Deebo.

Deebo Samuel next team odds (via DraftKings)

49ers +250
Steelers +550
Broncos +650
Panthers +650
Commanders +850
Patriots +1000

As the DraftKings odds note, there’s a third option outside of trade or cut. The 49ers can keep Deebo. That’s currently the betting favorite to happen. Samuel might be stuck in San Francisco if their asking price is too high or they view the cap implications of moving on from him as too costly. GM John Lynch even told reporters at the end of the season he expected Samuel to be on the team in 2025, saying, “We’re not business of letting good players out of here.” However, I don’t think this option is the most likely. The 49ers struck gold with a breakout season from Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall ended his rookie campaign on a high note with 14 catches for 210 yards and two touchdowns in his final two games. That duo should be enough to hold down the fort until Brandon Aiyuk returns from the torn ACL he suffered last year.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos are my favorite team from a player-fit perspective. Denver threw 99 screens last year, the third-most in the NFL. Despite it being a core part of their offense, the Broncos ranked 23rd in YPA (5.4) on screens. Samuel fell off last year, but he was still a force on designed looks. He ranked 11th in yards per catch and sixth in yards per route run on screens. Sean Payton has also repeatedly talked about wanting to fill the “joker” role in his offense. While that player is typically a tight end or running back, what about a wide receiver who plays more running back at a higher level than some backups? Samuel has the most rushing touchdowns in a single season for a wide receiver in NFL history. He also has the second-most. Bo Nix’s contract has the Broncos in a position to pay a little more for a win-now piece at receiver. His success gives them the motivation to do so.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh desperately needs a No. 2 receiver, but I find this landing spot a little less likely than Denver. The Steelers have made a killing off moving on from wide receivers a year early. Now they’re going to acquire an aging receiver coming off a down season who has requested a trade twice in the past four years? Samuel’s screen-heavy game doesn’t fit in Pittsburgh either. Arthur Smith used screens at the third-lowest rate last year and the team was well below average in YPA on these plays.

On the other hand, the need at receiver is all too real for Pittsburgh and they are a team perennially in win-now mode. Calvin Austin finished second among the Steelers receivers with 548 yards and no other wideout even hit 300. In particular, the Steelers need a slot wideout and Samuel was still efficient out of the slot in 2024. He averaged 2.3 yards per route run from the slot compared to 1.3 from all other alignments. His YAC ballooned from 5.8 outside of the slot to 12.7 in the slot. That was the second-highest mark in the NFL. Focusing his role down to these plays could help him the 29-year-old age more gracefully.

Washington Commanders

Every free agent, trade candidate, and draft pick is going to Washington this year. With a superstar rookie quarterback at the helm and $78 million in cap space, they make sense as the top landing spot for whoever your favorite player is. Like Pittsburgh, the Commanders need to give their quarterback a better No. 2 receiver this time around. Kliff Kingsbury’s love of short-area throws could also work in Samuel’s favor. Samuel ranked 25th out of 76 qualified receivers in PFF receiving grade on targets less than 10 yards downfield. He was top-10 in YAC per catch on these looks.

The Commanders’ long-term cap outlook will make the team even more appealing for Samuel. The disgruntled wideout is set to enter the final year of a three-year, $71.6 million contract. With Jayden Daniels on a deal contract for the next three years, Washington can afford an extension for Samuel, who will undoubtedly be eying a new deal as he looks for potential trade partners.

New England Patriots

The Patriots and Panthers are in similar spots. They both have plenty of work to do on the whole but got impressive quarterback play from their young signal-callers down the stretch, building a foundation for future success. The big difference is that the Patriots have roughly $100 million more in cap space than Carolina. While the Panthers’ receiver corps isn’t great by any stretch of the imagination, it’s far better than the mess New England rolled out in 2024. The Panthers had two receivers top 1.5 yards per route run. New England had no such players. Unsurprisingly, the Pats were also among my top teams to trade for Cooper Kupp.

While Samuel’s falloff in 2024 was alarming, it was largely based on a disastrous second half of the season. He averaged 2.3 YPRR with an 84.2 PFF receiving grade over the first eight weeks. Samuel then suffered rib and oblique injuries that possibly lingered for the remainder of the season and his numbers subsequently plummeted. The veteran averaged a dismal 1.1 YPRR with a 59 receiving grade over his final two months. Health has always been a concern for Deebo, but it’s possible his decline was the product of an injury and not something that will directly affect him going forward.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans are the dark horse team I could see making a run at Deebo. New GM Mike Borgonzi comes from a Chiefs front office that traded for a receiver in each of his final three seasons in Kansas City: DeAndre Hopkins, Mecole Hardman, and Kadarius Toney. Tennessee needs a receiver who can create easy completions and do some of the heavy lifting with the ball in his hands. The Titans generated 45.6 percent of their passing yards after the catch last year. That was the ninth-lowest rate in the NFL. They ranked even worse in overall YAC per reception. No. 2 receiver Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and No. 3 wideout Tyler Boyd are both free agents. Even if both come back, Boyd is a reserve option at this point in his career while NWI is best fit for a tertiary role. If the Titans are going quarterback with the first overall pick in the draft, they need to improve the situation that player is walking into.