Daytona 500 Odds: 4 NASCAR Drivers to Avoid Picking to Win on Sunday

Who will win the Daytona 500? The Great American Race is on Sunday, kicking off the 2026 NASCAR season for the Cup Series at Daytona International Speedway. The racing world is ready for the Super Bowl of Stock Car Racing and we’re getting ready for it with a bit of a Daytona 500 betting guide to begin the week.

Let’s dive into the early Daytona 500 odds, with lines from DraftKings for the race winner and a top-3 finish. Further below, you can find our list of four drivers we think should be avoided as picks to win.

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Related: Daytona 500 Entry List

Daytona 500 Odds 2026: Who will win the Daytona 500?

Picks to Avoid for the Daytona 500

William Byron – +1000

Just because something has never happened before in NASCAR does not mean it will never happen. With that said, the Daytona 500 has been running for nearly seven decades, and no driver has ever won it in three consecutive years. There is always chaos in the final laps; that is how William Byron won it in 2025 when he was in ninth place on the final lap in overtime and then won because of a crash that took out half the field in front of him. We just do not see fortune on Byron’s side this coming Sunday.

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Related: NASCAR Power Rankings 2026

Joey Logano – +1000

Joey Logano has an outstanding track record at Daytona International Speedway. He won the Daytona 500 in 2015 and was the pole winner two years ago; he also has two top-five finishes in the last six races at Daytona and eight career top-10 finishes in the Great American Race. However, he has finished in the top 10 just once since 2020 and has historically been a slow starter in the Next Gen era with Team Penske. Logano might win at Daytona in August for the Coke Zero Sugar 400, but we do not even see a top-five finish for him this Sunday.

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Denny Hamlin – +1100

There would be no better story for NASCAR than for Denny Hamlin to win the Daytona 500. Just months removed from his crushing loss in the championship race at Phoenix and weeks after the tragic passing of his father, the 45-year-old is also now driving through an aggravated shoulder injury. It would be storybook if Hamlin won the 500—the first points race since his father passed away—getting to celebrate in front of a crowd at Daytona that will support him, understanding the magnitude of the moment. Maybe Hamlin is able to channel the physical pain, an exhausting offseason, and the devastating last few weeks to find a way to win. Unfortunately, we suspect all of it will take a toll on him Sunday, and he will finish outside the top 10 of the Daytona 500 for the fourth time since 2023.

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Kyle Busch – +1400

Kyle Busch has not won a race since June 4, 2023. One of the best NASCAR drivers of modern times has not been to victory lane in the Cup Series in 96 races. Why would that change at the track where he has just one top-five finish in the Next Gen era, with an average finishing position of 21.1 at Daytona International Speedway since getting behind the wheel for Richard Childress Racing? We will also note that since the 2023 Daytona 500, Busch has only led 31 laps at Daytona. Legacy seems to be the only reason anyone would pick Busch to win a crown jewel race at this point.

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