There’s plenty of optimism surrounding the New England Patriots right now, and much of it is warranted after the team overhauled its coaching staff, spent a ton of money in free agency and put together a 2025 draft class that earned rave reviews.
But should fans really expect the Patriots to reach the playoffs during the upcoming NFL season?
The NFL playoffs have had at least four “new” teams (that missed the postseason the previous year) in every season since 1990, per USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis. Last season, there were four new playoff teams: the Los Angeles Chargers, Denver Broncos, Washington Commanders and Minnesota Vikings.
There are six teams with a playoff appearance drought of at least four seasons, led by the New York Jets, who at 14 seasons have the longest active drought of any NFL, NBA, MLB or NHL team.
The Patriots last reached the playoffs in 2021 — Mac Jones’ rookie year. It’s the franchise’s only postseason appearance since Tom Brady left after the 2019 campaign.
Will they make it in 2025?
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) model gives the Patriots just a 32 percent chance of reaching the postseason, which ranks 12th among the 16 AFC teams.
- Buffalo Bills: 81.2 percent to make the playoffs
- Kansas City Chiefs: 76.3 percent
- Baltimore Ravens: 76.2 percent
- Los Angeles Chargers: 59.3 percent
- Cincinnati Bengals: 58.7 percent
- Houston Texans: 52.9 percent
- Denver Broncos: 50.7 percent
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 39.5 percent
- Miami Dolphins: 38 percent
- Jacksonville Jaguars: 37.4 percent
- Indianapolis Colts: 36.9 percent
- New England Patriots: 32 percent
- Las Vegas Raiders: 23.1 percent
- Tennessee Titans: 15.1 percent
- New York Jets: 13.1 percent
- Cleveland Browns: 9.7 percent
So, even though the Patriots have the easiest schedule of any AFC team (third-easiest among all teams) based on their opponents’ 2024 win percentage, ESPN’s FPI still doesn’t see a playoff berth as a likely scenario for New England in 2025.
Winning the AFC East is a pretty tall task for the Patriots. The Bills have won the division crown each of the last five seasons, and it would be a surprise if that streak isn’t extended in 2025.
A wild card spot likely is the Patriots’ only hope, and earning a berth should require at least nine wins. At least 10 wins were needed to make the playoffs in the AFC in 2024, 2023 and 2020.
Is there a path to 10 wins for the Patriots? Yes, actually.
Winnable games: Week 1 vs. Las Vegas, Week 4 vs. Carolina, Week 6 at New Orleans, Week 7 at Tennessee, Week 8 vs. Cleveland, Week 9 vs. Atlanta, Week 11 vs. Jets, Week 13 vs. Giants, Week 17 at Jets.
Coin flip games: Week 2 at Miami, Week 3 vs. Pittsburgh, Week 18 vs. Miami
Tough matchups: Week 5 at Buffalo, Week 12 at Cincinnati, Week 15 vs. Buffalo, Week 16 at Baltimore
The Patriots have around eight winnable games. Maybe they go 6-2 or 7-1 in those matchups. Can they split with Miami? They’ve never beaten the Dolphins (0-7) when Tua Tagovailoa starts at quarterback. A Week 3 game against Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers is a pivotal early-season matchup.
Reaching the 10-win mark won’t be easy, but it’s not super unrealistic, either.
The Patriots could have a top 10 defense. Franchise quarterback Drake Maye has more talent around him now. The coaching staff, led by new head coach Mike Vrabel, has been significantly upgraded over last season.
Combine those factors with an easy schedule and the Patriots actually might make the playoffs. A strong start, especially with three of the first four games at home, will be crucial.
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