We didn’t see a ton of movement overall in the power rankings this week, besides the obvious fall of Texas and Penn State after each team suffered their second loss of the season on Saturday.
I had Texas and Penn State rated in my top three heading into the summer but the reality is both teams were overvalued by the betting market. One more loss by either team and their College Football Playoff chances are dead. The odds are against them. The Nittany Lions still host Indiana and travel to Ohio State, while the Longhorns have games against Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Georgia and Texas A&M.
Each week during the season, I’ll break down the rankings by tiers so bettors can see where I cut off each group. I’ll also move teams based on results, discuss changes in the betting market and set the hypothetical point spread from Tier 1 compared to the rest of the tiers.
Stop by the SportsLine college football Discord channel or hit me up on X at @TheTomCasale to let me know if you agree or disagree with the rankings.
College football Week 7 power ratings
Tier 1
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
2. Oregon Ducks
3. Miami Hurricanes
4. Alabama Crimson Tide
Miami jumps up into Tier 1 after another quality win on the road over Florida State. The Hurricanes’ schedule eases up over the next month with a trip to SMU being the toughest test. It will take a major upset for Miami not to reach the ACC Championship game undefeated.
Speaking of championship games, Ohio State and Oregon look to be on a collision course in the Big Ten. However, each has a challenging opponent this week with Oregon hosting Indiana and Ohio State traveling to Illinois. If the Ducks prevail at home, they will be double-digit favorites the rest of the way to finish the regular season unbeaten for the second straight year.
Alabama makes its first appearance in Tier 1 win after back-to-back impressive wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt. Things don’t get any easier for the Crimson Tide with a road trip at Missouri on Saturday. Alabama has the most challenging remaining schedule of the four teams in the top tier by far.
Tier 2 (+2 from Tier 1)
5. Georgia Bulldogs
I have Georgia just a shade below the top four teams. I would make the Bulldogs slight underdogs in a neutral field against all of them but Georgia has a chance to move up in the coming weeks with games against Auburn, Ole Miss, Florida and Texas. I would make the Bulldogs at least a field goal favorite over any of the teams in Tier 3.
Tier 3 (+5 from Tier 1)
6. Ole Miss Rebels
7. Texas A&M Aggies
8. Texas Longhorns
Texas was my preseason No. 1 team and if these were regular power rankings, the Longhorns would be down near the bottom. However, for betting purposes, Texas would still be slight favorites over all the teams in Tier 4 on a neutral field. We see that this week against Oklahoma where the Horns are -2.5. Having said all that, I believe Texas has issues that aren’t easily fixed. I expect the Horns to lose at least one more game and miss the CFP. For now, they settle in at No. 8.
Tier 4 (+8 from Tier 1)
9. LSU Tigers
10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
11. Texas Tech Red Raiders
12. Oklahoma Sooners
13. Indiana Hoosiers
14. Missouri Tigers
Tier 4 is the most interesting group because I can see one or more of these teams making a run in the playoff if things break right. I mentioned this summer Notre Dame would improve a lot throughout the season and the Irish are rolling right now after two close losses to undefeated Miami and Texas A&M. I expect Notre Dame to run the table and be one of the 12 teams in the playoff field.
Texas Tech is the team in this group I really like. Again, these are betting power rankings, so I would make Texas a small favorite over the Red Raiders on a neutral field. However, I would actually bet Texas Tech in that matchup. I love the Red Raiders’ defense and think they can do damage in the playoff.
It’s a huge week for Indiana and Missouri. We’ll find out if they are serious contenders or just good teams a shade below the elite. Missouri gets Alabama at home coming off two tough games, while Indiana will try to upset Oregon on the road. I won’t penalize either team much for a loss but a win would propel them up the rankings.
Tier 5 (+9 from Tier 1)
15. Michigan Wolverines
16. Penn State Nittany Lions
17. Tennessee Volunteers
18. Auburn Tigers/Florida Gators
Penn State is the biggest faller of the season after its embarrassing loss at previously winless UCLA. That game was close at the end but let’s be honest, the Bruins dominated most of the way. The Nittany Lions need to upset Ohio State on Nov. 1 just to have a shot at the playoff. Spoiler: It’s not happening.
Michigan is just on the cusp of Tier 4. The Wolverines will move up with a win over No. 19 USC on Saturday. The Wolverines are +2.5 in that game, although I make the line closer to a pick ’em.
Tier 6 (+12 from Tier 1)
19. USC Trojans
20. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
USC lost its lone test this season so far at Illinois. The Trojans get another shot on Saturday and will move up with a win over Michigan.
Georgia Tech keeps plugging along and right now has the inside track to face Miami in the ACC Championship game. The Yellow Jackets will be favored in every game the rest of the way until the season finale against Georgia.
Next five: Vanderbilt Commodores, Utah Utes, South Carolina Gamecocks, Arizona State Sun Devils, Washington Huskies
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