After an appetizer of sorts with a five-game “Week 0” slate last weekend, Week 1 of the 2025 college football season is here. Early on in the year, we see how teams look after undergoing plenty of changes to their rosters, and the early weeks also present games with massive upset potential. Here, we break down five games where college football betting underdogs of at least two scores have a legitimate case to pull off big Week 1 upsets, including at the expense of two notable SEC powerhouses. All spreads and money-line odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Alabama (-13.5, -550) at Florida State
Let’s start off with a big one. Alabama is a 13.5-point favorite over Florida State, and both teams enter 2025 in need of bounce-back seasons, albeit in very different ways.
While 9-4 is fine at most schools, that’s not the case at Alabama. Kalen DeBoer took over for the legendary Nick Saban and lost more games in 2024 than he did in his two years at Washington. DeBoer now enters Year 2 under the microscope after missing the College Football Playoff last year. The Seminoles went 13-1 in 2023 before cratering to a 2-10 finish. Mike Norvell and Co. are out to prove that was a fluke, and they can get started by beating the team that took their 2023 College Football Playoff spot.
So how can the Noles get the upset done? First of all, the game is in Tallahassee, and all three of Bama’s regular-season losses came on the road last year. The Seminoles also have a new quarterback in Tommy Castellanos, who transfers over from Boston College. He missed time last year, but in 2023, Castellanos was one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the country with over 1,100 rushing yards. Norvell also hired a veteran coach in Gus Malzahn, a former National Championship-winning head coach, to lead FSU’s offensive attack.
The Tide get a boost on the coaching side in offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, who led DeBoer’s two Washington teams to great finishes in points and yards. He’s an upgrade over what the Tide had last year, but Grubb and DeBoer are working with a new starting quarterback in Ty Simpson, who takes over for Jalen Milroe, who’s now with the Seattle Seahawks in the NFL. This is Simpson’s fourth year on campus, but he has just 50 career passing attempts and no starts. If the Seminoles come out swinging, it could be a tough first start for Simpson.
Syracuse at Tennessee (-14, -575)
From one SEC team to another, Tennessee did make the CFP a year ago before falling to Ohio State in the first round. Syracuse surprised many last year, going 10-3 and finishing as a top-25 team under first-year head coach Fran Brown.
The Orange had to replace a lot of talent offensively with quarterback Kyle McCord graduating and receiver/tight end Oronde Gadsden Jr. now in the NFL, but there’s still plenty of talent there to have another very good passing attack. Defensively, the Orange return 15 players who made at least one start last year.
As for the Vols, Josh Heupel’s squad had a tumultuous offseason. They already lost top playmakers like SEC Offensive Player of the Year Dylan Sampson and receiver Dont’e Thornton, but they had a rollercoaster offseason that resulted in quarterback Nico Iamaleava entering the transfer portal for UCLA. Former Appalachian State quarterback Joey Aguilar now leads the charge after consecutive 3,000-yard seasons.
Syracuse took advantage of an easy schedule last year and still suffered some bad losses, but Brown appears to have this program on the right track. Expectations are relatively low for the Orange coming off a 10-win season, but no one saw them winning 10 games last year to begin with. Heupel’s teams are known for their offenses, but it’s unclear just how good that unit can be after an offseason full of change. This one has upset spot written all over it.
Florida Atlantic at Maryland (-14.5, -650)
Florida Atlantic should be awfully fun to watch this year. The Owls have a young new head coach in Zach Kittley, who orchestrated high-powered offenses at Texas Tech and Western Kentucky. In 2021, he helped Bailey Zappe to a record-setting campaign for the Hilltoppers. He now takes over an FAU program looking for a shot in the arm after a 3-9 2024 campaign. The Owls added Conference USA Offensive Player of the Year Caden Veltkamp after he tallied 32 total touchdowns at Western Kentucky last year. The Owls should be able to put up points, especially with a talented and experienced QB like Veltkamp in Kittley’s system.
Additionally, this is a Maryland team that went just 4-8 last year and won only one conference game. Expectations are hardly high for the Terps, who will roll out a true freshman quarterback in Malik Washington. Maryland may be playing the long game this season by trying to get youngsters like Washington game action while learning on the job.
Maryland hasn’t fielded great defenses under head coach Mike Locksley, and with Kittley and Veltkamp coming to town, this is an upset spot to watch, especially if Washington looks the part of a true freshman.
Hawaii at Arizona (-17, -800)
Arizona entered its first Big 12 season with high hopes despite having a new head coach and a reshaped coaching staff as a whole. With quarterback Noah Fifita and receiver Teteiroa McMillan back, the Wildcats were a popular pick to win the Big 12. But Brent Brennan’s squad went just 4-8, and while he has Fifita back for his fourth year as a starter, he had a poor 2024 season as a whole and he can no longer pass to McMillan, who went in the first round in April’s draft. Brennan, Fifita and the Wildcats are under a lot of pressure to right the ship in 2025.
As for Hawaii, the Rainbow Warriors pulled off a close 23-20 win in Week 0 over Stanford and enter this matchup with some momentum at 1-0. Timmy Chang has arguably the best roster he’s had in his fourth year as his alma mater’s head coach, and pulling off a second straight win over a Power Five conference foe would go a long way in establishing Hawaii as a Mountain West contender.
Neither of these teams were great defensively last year, which could lead to a shootout. Arizona is the more talented team, even with questions surrounding the overall roster after a dreadful 2024 season. But given how poorly 2024 went, it stands to reason that this is a Wildcats team that may not be able to pull itself off the mat if it gets punched in the teeth early in the season.
Toledo at Kentucky (-9.5, -325)
We started with two SEC teams, so how about we end with a third?
Mark Stoops’ seat has to be burning hot after a 4-8 season. This came after winning at least seven games in seven of the Wildcats’ previous eight seasons. Before 2024, Kentucky had won seven games in 2023 and 2022 after winning 10 in 2021. Things are trending the wrong way in Lexington, and the Wildcats have the second-longest odds to win the SEC this year at DraftKings.
Toledo, meanwhile, went 8-5 last year, including a blowout upset win over Mississippi State, so knocking off an SEC opponent is nothing new. The Rockets return quarterback Tucker Gleason and added two transfer running backs in Chip Trayanum and Kenji Christian. The Wildcats also have four starters returning on defense, with none on the defensive line. Toledo could be able to run the ball, and even if the run game doesn’t work, there’s enough talent in the passing game to get yards against what was a lackluster Kentucky pass defense a year ago.
The biggest key for Toledo to pull off the upset is defensively. The Wildcats have a new quarterback in Zach Calzada, who played at Texas A&M, Auburn and Incarnate Word. At A&M, Calzada knocked off then-No. 1 Alabama. At ICU last year, he had nearly 3,800 passing yards to go along with 35 touchdowns. Much of Kentucky’s offense is new, bringing a sort of “boom or bust” potential on that side of the ball. If the Wildcats can’t click early, Toledo can make this one very interesting.
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