The first College Football Playoff Rankings will be released on Tuesday evening. While this is the 11th year that the CFP selection committee has released rankings, the 12-team playoff will magnify the importance of the rankings more than anyone will expect.
Suddenly, instead of hyper-focusing on the top four, nearly every single slot in the rankings will be relevant. The top 15 teams are all those who can cleanly expect to play their way into the field. Teams all the way down to No. 25, with an extra emphasis on potential Group of Five champions, are firmly on the bubble. It’s one of the biggest shifts in college football history that will ensure that dozens of teams are still alive in the closing weeks of the season.
With that, terminology will change too. Get used to one distinction especially: ranking vs. seeding. Being No. 12 in the CFP Rankings doesn’t matter. Only being a top-12 seed does. The seeding will take into account the biggest new rules of the expanded playoff, especially that five conference champions are guaranteed auto bids and the top four conference champs will earn a bye. It will make for plenty of confusion.
That said, the rankings release can be an overload of information. We wanted to take a step back and focus on e key dynamics in the first rankings that could shape the way the final one looks on Dec. 8, when the rankings become official. Here’s what to watch for in the first College Football Playoff Rankings on Nov. 5.
How will the bracket be presented?
In previous years, the CFP Rankings were released in reverse order from No. 25 to No. 7. After a commercial break, the broadcast would reveal the top six in an indeterminate order to create the most drama. In a 12-team playoff world, revealing gets much more complicated.
The most complicated difference will be emphasizing the difference between ranking and seeding. The College Football Playoff staff have tried to emphasize that distinction every chance it gets, but presenting that for the first time will be complicated.
The broadcast could decide to just release the top 25 and then explain how the rankings will help set up seeds. They could also release the top 12 bracket and only discuss the rankings after the fact. Without question, these conversations have been ongoing between the CFP organization and ESPN broadcasters for months.
Oh, by the way, people will unquestionably lose their minds when byes are explained. Last season, Michigan and Washington finished No. 1 and 2 in the final rankings. In the expanded playoff, the Huskies, as the second-ranked team in the Big Ten conference, would have been the 5-seed behind hypothetical top Big 12 team Arizona, which was ranked No. 14 in the final rankings. It’s how the system works. Get used to it.
What teams diverge most from the AP poll?
The AP Top 25 is a useful way for us to look at expectations for a team from a season-long perspective. At the same time, it can get bogged down in preconceived notions and poll inertia, which means some deserving teams don’t get enough credit until the CFP committee can sit back and really dig into their full case.
Personally, there are three teams that I’m most interested in seeing: Miami, Indiana and BYU, all of which are undefeated. The Cougars rank lowest out of the three in the AP poll despite putting together the most impressive résumé by far with wins over SMU and Kansas State. Indiana hasn’t played a good opponent yet but has blasted every team on its schedule by at least two touchdowns. Still, Miami is at the top at No. 4 despite inconsistent performance thanks to preseason expectations carrying over.
Will the committee’s fresh look at these teams — and many other cases down the board — cause them to rethink conventional logic?
Boise State is unquestionably the most consequential team in the first CFP Rankings. The Broncos are favorites to earn the Group of Five’s guaranteed slot in the CFP (assuming they win the Mountain West), but things may not stop there. Depending on where Boise State slots in the initial group, it could threaten for either a higher seed than No. 12 in the final field and could even push the ACC or Big 12 champion for a first-round bye.
Boise State’s schedule won’t finish near the top nationally, but the résumé is solid for a Group of Five team. The only loss is by a field goal on a road trip to No. 1 Oregon, and wins over Washington State and UNLV will benefit greatly. The Broncos hit No. 12 in the AP Top 25, which would put them in great position for a bye should one of BYU or Miami lose their conference championship game.
At the same time, it will be instructive to see where Boise State ranks in relation to other Group of Five teams. Army is still quietly undefeated at 8-0. Louisiana moved to 7-1, while Tulane has two losses but is blowing through AAC play. That’s how big the stakes are. Based on the first rankings, Boise State could be set up for either a bye or missing the field entirely.
What teams are set up for at-large bids?
Right now, there are six teams that SportsLine considers to have an 89% chance or better to make the College Football Playoff (Oregon, Ohio State, Texas, Georgia, Miami, Penn State). Two more spots will go to a Big 12 and Group of Five champion, leaving four at-large spots essentially completely up in the air.
Assuming BYU and Boise State get auto bids, Indiana, Tennessee, Iowa State and Pittsburgh are the only one-loss power-conference teams left on the board (plus Notre Dame). However, the SEC has several two-loss teams (Alabama, Texas A&M, LSU, Ole Miss) that also believe they can get back into the field. The Volunteers and Rebels can probably get a spot by beating Georgia, but losing makes both of their cases complicated.
Additionally, it will be telling just how low Week 10 losers Iowa State, Pittsburgh and Clemson debut versus the borderline contenders from the SEC. There’s a chance that there are seven SEC teams in the top 15. There’s also a chance that there’s only three. It all depends on what the committee decides to prioritize.
Are the Big 12, ACC stuck at one bid?
In an expanded playoff, we’re going to have to get used to using some terminology that’s much better known in the March Madness world. Two that will be important to keep an eye on with the Big 12 and ACC: one-bid leagues and bid-stealers. Miami (ACC) and BYU (Big 12) are in great position to make the field.
Before Week 10, the leagues were in great positions to be multi-bid leagues. Then, Iowa State picked up its first loss and both Clemson and Kansas State dropped a second.
The small solace for these leagues is that the Big Ten does not have a serious fifth contender to eat up slots. Iowa State might be able to play its way back into the at-large conversation, but the Cyclones can’t rank much lower than No. 15 to have a shot. Additionally, where BYU and Miami rank will be critical. If the Cougars rank as low as the No. 9 they sit in the AP poll, that could mean their case as an at-large would be in trouble if they lost in the Big 12 title game.
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