Conference action is officially underway, and in the SEC, we saw one of the biggest games of the year last week with Alabama knocking off Georgia yet again and ending the Bulldogs’ lengthy home winning streak. The Tide now turn their sights to Vanderbilt, which is undefeated and beat Alabama last year at home. That ranked vs. ranked matchup is one of three SEC games we’re using for this week’s SEC parlay at Caesars Sportsbook.
College football Week 6 SEC parlay
Final odds: +596 (wager $100 to win $596)
Vanderbilt +10.5 at Alabama
In 2024, Alabama won a thriller against Georgia a week before facing Vanderbilt, which would knock off the Tide. Will history repeat itself this year? The Commodores are putting up a ton of points behind quarterback Diego Pavia, who was stellar against Alabama last year. A Vandy win on Saturday could push Pavia into the Heisman conversation.
As for Alabama, the Tide have bounced back from a Week 1 loss to Florida State by taking care of business, including winning a close one at Georgia last weekend behind a strong effort from first-year starting quarterback Ty Simpson.
Vandy was able to win in a letdown spot for the Tide last year at home but will face a tougher task this week in Tuscaloosa. The Commodores could shock the world again, but the more sensible play is Vandy keeping things close and covering the 10.5-point spread behind a strong effort from Pavia and the offense in what could wind up being a high-scoring affair. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every college football game 10,000 times, has Alabama covering in 58% of simulations.
Texas -7 at Florida
The Longhorns are 3-1 entering SEC play, having won three in a row after falling at Ohio State in Week 1. Texas has played a soft non-conference schedule since that loss, beating San Jose State, UTEP and Sam Houston State. This will be the next big test for Arch Manning and Co. as the Longhorns head to The Swamp for a date with the Gators.
As for Florida, Billy Napier’s squad is 1-3, and the head coach has to be feeling the pressure now. What makes this weekend extra important for the Gators is after this week, they still have five games against ranked opponents on the schedule, meaning a bowl game may not be in the cards this year.
Texas is clearly the better team top to bottom, and while the focus is on the team’s offense, the Longhorns have allowed just 31 points in four games this season, while Florida’s offense has scored 33 points over the team’s last three games.
The Longhorns should definitely win this one, and their great defense should aid in the team covering the spread as well. The model has Texas covering in over 60% of simulations, good for an ‘A’ grade.
Mississippi State at Texas A&M Over 55.5
The Aggies finally played a low-scoring game in 2025, beating Auburn 16-10. That was a good sign for Mike Elko’s defense after the team had played shootouts for the first three games of the year, but Saturday against Mississippi State could be a high-scoring affair with the Bulldogs coming off a 41-34 loss to Tennessee and scoring 38 and 63 over their two previous games.
Mississippi State had Tennessee on upset alert last week, so the Bulldogs have the ability to keep things close with some of the SEC’s top teams. But even if they can’t keep up with A&M’s high-powered offense, both teams have shown the ability to score in bunches, putting Over 55.5 firmly in play this week. Plus, the Aggies will certainly be looking to put together a more complete offensive showing after scoring just 16 points against Auburn last weekend. Over 55.5 hits in 54% of model simulations.
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