Throughout the summer, the SportsLine experts have shared their favorite college football futures bets across CBS Sports, SportsLine and the SportsLine Discord, a growing community of more than 5,000 betting enthusiasts who share picks (including live wagering), chat with betting experts and talk about all things sports betting. With the season days away, we’re going to highlight their collection of team and conference previews as well as some of their best bets for college football in 2025 right here.
The experts include Bruce Marshall, the longtime executive editor of The Gold Sheet; Thomas Casale, a CBS Sports HQ contributor who has more than 30 years of betting experience; and Jeff Hochman, a selective handicapper who has also been a part of the sports betting scene for decades. All three are active members of the SportsLine Discord, where they’ve shared their best futures bets along with early Week 0 and Week 1 plays and contributed betting advice across a wide variety of sports, including college football, NFL, NBA, college basketball, MLB, horse racing, soccer, hockey and more. Find out more about the SportsLine Discord, including how to use your SportsLine membership to join the conversation.
Let’s get into their college football 2025 season preview. All odds listed are as of the time of the pick and are subject to change.
CFP futures
Championship longshot: Miami Hurricanes (+4100)
“The reason I think Miami is intriguing, though, isn’t because of [Carson] Beck. The Canes are strong in the trenches this year on both the offensive and defensive lines. I expect to see a team that runs the football a lot, with Beck serving more as a game manager than a gunslinger. I also like the defense to be vastly improved. Let’s be honest, it has to be. Miami allowed 30+ points in five ACC games last season, and Cam Ward isn’t there to carry the offense on his back anymore. … If Miami is going to be a title contender, we will know in the first month of the season, when the Canes host Notre Dame and Florida before traveling to what should be a much-improved Florida State squad. Go 2-1 in those three games, and the Canes will be in good shape to secure a playoff bid.” — Casale
You can see all of Casale’s best bets and his top value play to win the CFP this year, along with the favorite he’s avoiding, over at SportsLine.
Alabama to miss CFP (+142)
I picked Alabama to miss the playoff in this article last year, and Crimson Tide fans took to social media to let me know what they thought of my intelligence. That was so much fun, so I thought I would try it again. The Tide barely missed out on making the 12-team team field in Kalen DeBoer’s first season, and it could be a similar story this year. My issue with the Tide is I have concerns about the quarterback position. They are in a bit of a transition until elite recruit Keelon Russell is ready to take the reins. … The schedule won’t be easy. The Tide have road games against Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina and Auburn while hosting Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma. Alabama will again be in the conversation for a playoff spot, but my gut tells me this team is still a year away from being a serious title contender with the dynamic Russell at quarterback.” — Casale
Casale has two best bets to make the CFP and another team he sees as a great longshot play, and you can see all those make/miss CFP bets at SportsLine.
Conference winners
Big Ten: Penn State (+230)
“I make Penn State the favorite to win the Big Ten, so I see a little value on the Nittany Lions at +230. Ohio State and Oregon have more overall talent, but both teams are younger and relying on new faces at key positions. Everything lines up for Penn State to win the Big Ten this season and be a top-two seed in the College Football Playoff.” — Casale
SEC: LSU (+600)
“The reason I like LSU comes down to value. I have the Tigers much closer to being the third favorite in the SEC with Alabama than the +480 and +700 odds suggest. While I agree that Texas and Georgia are the clear favorites, LSU having the most experienced starting quarterback of the contenders gives them a puncher’s chance.” — Casale
ACC: Clemson (+110)
“Clemson leads the nation in returning production, including 86% of their offensive production and 75% of their defense. This continuity is exceptionally rare for a program consistently sending players to the NFL. … Dabo Swinney’s track record strongly supports exceeding 9.5 wins. Over his 16-year tenure, Clemson has reached at least 10 wins in 12 of 13 seasons, with only the 2023 campaign (9-4) falling short. The Tigers’ trajectory mirrors their 2022 season, when they bounced back from a disappointing 2021 to win 11 games and capture the ACC Championship.” — Hochman
Heisman futures
Longshots
Blake Horvath: “I normally don’t weigh in on Heisman odds and usually have no interest betting on them or recommending them, but in casually perusing the list today at FanDuel, I noted that Navy’s Blake Horvath was listed at … +40000? Can’t remember how many were listed above Horvath, but it seemed like over a hundred players … Also note that Army QB Bryson Daly finished sixth in the final tally last year, so an academy QB can get noticed, and there’s a chance that Navy could have a big year — the schedule is very favorable, and the Mids don’t run into Notre Dame until very late in the season.” — Marshall
Thomas Castellanos: “Everything went wrong for Florida State last season after just missing out on the College Football Playoff the year before. I expect the Seminoles to be one of the most improved teams in the nation. We won’t have to wait long to see if FSU is back. The Seminoles open the season at home against Alabama on Aug. 30. Obviously, Florida State would need to pull an upset over the Crimson Tide to get Castellanos into the mix. However, if that were to happen, Castellanos’ odds would likely drop to around +2000 (from +6000), with games against Miami, Clemson and Florida still on the schedule to showcase his skills. In Castellanos’ one full season as a starter at Boston College, he threw for 2,248 yards, rushed for 1,113 yards and accounted for 28 touchdowns. Look for Castellanos to have a huge year in new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn’s system.” — Casale
Casale also has two best bets and one player to avoid in the Heisman futures markets over at SportsLine.
Win totals
Air Force (two expert plays)
” … The Air Force Falcons brings back valuable experience on the offensive line, with three starters returning, including All-Mountain West center Costen Cooley. Trevor Tate and Alec Falk solidify the left side, which will help ensure the triple option offense operates effectively. Air Force ranks 119th nationally in strength of schedule, making it one of the easier schedules in FBS. While Air Force lost key defensive players, the 2024 unit ranked third in the Mountain West in scoring defense (23.3 points per game) and first in total defense. Their stop unit will be as effective in propelling the Falcons to at least six victories.” — Hochman on why Over 5.5 at -190 is a best bet
” … Note, too, that only once in 18 years (2017-18) have [Troy] Calhoun teams won five or fewer games in back-to-back seasons … Schedule-wise, there’s a good chance at a 3-1 September, with three games at Falcon Stadium (though the Falcs will be underdogs vs. Boise), and enough winnable dates in the Mountain West to at least get back to .500, which for Over purposes is all we need. There will also be revenge battles in the Commander-in-Chief games vs. Navy & Army, the latter trekking to Colorado Springs for the first time since 2019. We’re not in love with the -150s we’ve seen on offer, but Air Force Over 5.5 wins jumps off the page to us.” — Marshall
Marshall (two expert plays)
“Charles Huff left Marshall to take the head coaching job at Southern Miss. Losing a coach like Huff is bad enough, but he also took 20 players with him to Hattiesburg. Former North Carolina State defensive coordinator Tony Gibson enters his first head coaching job with a retooled roster that features 62 new players and question marks at every position. … Gibson might have success at Marshall, but it won’t be in 2025. I expect the Thundering Herd to comfortably finish Under their win total of 5.5. I laid -120 when I gave this bet out in June, and FanDuel now has the Under at -164. This is my favorite win total of the season, though, so I would still consider betting it at that price.” — Casale
“This is a new team in Huntington that might need name tags in fall camp and whose only resemblance to last year’s Herd will be the uniforms. Will Marshall be ready for a quick start when the slate offers some apparently winnable, but not gimme games in September against Missouri State, Eastern Kentucky, and MTSU following the expected carnage of the opener at Georgia, with a tricky Belt adventure to follow? Stay tuned. [Tony] Gibson is going to need to get Marshall bowl-eligible, a neat trick with an effective brand-new team, with a brand-new staff, to beat those like us who are projecting Under 5.5 wins (-115 at last check) for the Herd.” — Marshall
More win totals
Alabama: ” … Distributing the competitive games evenly suggests Alabama could achieve nine to 10 wins. Winning three out of four games could elevate their total to double digits. Given their talent advantages and home-field benefits in several key matchups, surpassing 10 wins appears attainable. If you couldn’t tell, I absolutely love this team in 2025. Everything is in place for the Crimson Tide to shine.” — Hochman on why Over 9.5 at -110 is a best bet
Arizona: ” … Expected wins out of the chute against Hawaii and Weber State would merely put the Cats where they were after two games a year ago, and before troubles began in the Big 12, which offers tough customers Kansas State and Iowa State before the end of September. By that point, we’ll have a better idea if the Cats are going to mount a comeback, but considering the depths plumbed last fall, getting bowl eligible and past the posted 5.5 wins seems more than a bit tricky. We’ll look Under (-120) in Tucson and keep an eye on the hot seat beneath [Brent] Brennan.” — Marshall
Auburn: ” … Still, [Hugh] Freeze’s Auburn often hasn’t been able to get out of its own way (such as the minus-9 turnover margin last year), and before the new campaign is a month old, the Tigers will have made trips to Baylor, Oklahoma ([Jackson] Arnold’s homecoming), and Texas A&M. Ouch! The posted win total at 7.5 looks very aggressive to us; even if Freeze sweeps non-league (a big “if” with that opener at Waco), he’d still have to go 4-4 in the SEC for the Over to cash, a very heavy lift after a 5-11 SEC mark since ’23. We’re looking Under at a very appealing +140.” — Marshall
Baylor: ” … We’ll find out early if the Bears mean business — an opening pair vs. Auburn (at Waco) and up the road in Dallas at SMU, then a visit by Arizona State two weeks later, could define the campaign by mid-September. Thus, it’s good to have an experienced pilot like [Sawyer] Robertson in the cockpit at the outset, and when the dust clears, we think Baylor at least matches last year’s eight wins. With the posted wins at 7.5, priced at even money, we’d rather be on the Over side in Waco.” — Marshall
East Carolina: ” … Key portal adds include DE Justin Benton (via Houston) and NT Xavier McIver (via UT-Martin), who figure to bolster the DL, plus decorated ex-Western Carolina CB Jordy Lowery. As for the schedule, it’s tricky in parts, with the bowl revenge-minded Wolfpack in the opener at Raleigh, but the Pirates miss loop favorites SMU and Navy, and get dates vs. BYU and Army at home. With the posted 6.5 wins offered at +125, we’ll look Over in Greenville — and even consider a flyer at +1800 to win the AAC.” — Marshall
Florida State: ” … Still, the ’24 collapse was comprehensive, and FSU also ranked 131st in turnover margin (-16). [Mike] Norvell surely knows by now the risks of a full portal reboot, and the inevitable chatter of Deion Sanders returning to his alma mater will begin as soon as the war drums start beating with the first losses. Yet, because of a prohibitive -200 price, we can only offer a lukewarm recommendation of Under 7.5 wins — we just want to be on record as forecasting the Noles below 7.5. Consider, then, this as more of a warning to not go Over 7.5 at refurbished Doak Campbell.” — Marshall
Fresno State: ” … The schedule, you ask? Not a piece of cake, but still with ample win opportunities and a legit chance to break 4-0 from the gate if the Bulldogs can pull a mild upset at Kansas in the opener. Remember, Fresno has rarely been outclassed at its own level, and if [Matt] Entz is as capable as regional observers insist, the Dogs should be good for one last hurrah in the Mountain West and climb to their usual level above .500 before moving to a reconfigured Pac-12 in 2026. We’re looking Over 6.5 wins (at -120 or thereabouts) and the old Red Wave to perhaps resurface in the Central Valley.” — Marshall
Georgia: “The schedule is a mixed bag for Georgia. The Bulldogs play just three SEC true road games (Tennessee, Auburn, Mississippi State), while hosting Texas and Alabama. They also face improved Florida in Jacksonville. Despite some tough competition, Georgia could be favored in every game this season. The Bulldogs have the second-shortest odds behind Texas to win the national championship. However, their win total is set at 9.5. If [Gunner] Stockton is the real deal, it’s hard to see Georgia losing three games. While they do have question marks entering the season, 10 wins seems likely. I would go over the Bulldogs’ win total of 9.5.” — Casale
Georgia Tech: ” … As long as [Haynes] King and slashing RB Jamal Haynes stay in one piece, the Jackets’ offense will have plenty of pop, while some well-regarded portal adds should fortify a combative stop-unit under new DC Blake Gideon (via Texas). Two early-season dates have the potential to define the campaign: the opener at Colorado and two weeks later at home to Clemson, and wins in each have the capacity to thrust Tech into the early playoff conversation. … Barring an injury epidemic, the posted 7.5 wins look a very reasonable hurdle to clear, so at only -130 or so we’re all in with the Over on the Flats. A related stab to win the ACC at +1000 might be a worthwhile risk, too.” — Marshall
Indiana: ” … Veteran targets for [Fernando] Mendoza remain in the fold, including Elijah Sarratt, who caught almost 1,000 yards worth of passes in ’24, while durable Maryland transfer Roman Hemby, with 2,347 career rush yards, figures to lead the overland assault. As for the schedule, it provides a chance to clear the posted 8.5 wins. ODU, Kennesaw and Indiana State provide soft non-league challenges, while Ohio State and Michigan are off the slate, though trips to Oregon and Penn State loom. We feel good enough about Mendoza and the leadership of [Curt] Cignetti to look Over 8.5, especially as it’s offered at a very fair +110.” — Marshall
Iowa: ” … The schedule sets up pretty nicely, too, again skipping Ohio State and Michigan, and bypassing what could be an excellent Bret Bielema Illinois, while getting expected Big Ten contenders Indiana, Penn State, and Oregon all at Nile Kinnick. The Hawkeyes could enter Big Ten play at 3-0, too, if they can avenge a bitter loss in the Cy-Hawk battle vs. Iowa State, a series [Kirk] Ferentz has mostly dominated until the Cyclones stole last September’s verdict in the final seconds. The Ferentz track record suggests Iowa clears 7.5 wins, and being offered at plus money (+120 at last check) makes the Hawkeyes’ Over all the more enticing, especially as it looks like there’s a real QB in Iowa City this fall.” — Marshall
Kentucky: ” … On the field, this is a completely re-tooled roster with over 50 new players. We can debate if a complete roster restructure works in the transfer portal era. However, I would argue it’s much tougher to do that in a conference like the SEC, where the Wildcats face one of the nation’s toughest schedules with games against Ole Miss, South Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, Auburn, Florida and Louisville. I like to break college teams down by what I consider winnable games that won’t be classified as an upset. According to my power rankings, Kentucky has four winnable games. The Wildcats need to go 4-0 in those games and then pull an upset in the SEC to go over their win total of 4.5. I don’t see it happening.” — Casale
Louisville: ” … A fast start looks likely, with a good chance to hit the Miami game undefeated in mid-October, and based upon last season, there’s no reason to fear Clemson or SMU in November, either. The posted 8.5 wins is not too daunting, and we gladly look Over (even at -160), but better future values might come in making the ACC title game at +350 (our preferred call and maybe better value than the playoff price at the same +350), while winning the ACC at +750 might be worth a flyer, too.” — Marshall
Miami (OH): ” … Meanwhile, the stop unit ranked 15th in scoring defense and returns senior leadership, especially in the back seven. Still, along with the momentum [Chuck] Martin has generated, the best case for the RedHawks to exceed the posted 6.5 win total is the usual flotsam in the MAC, where Miami is 14-2 across the past two seasons. Just getting one win in pre-league action against beatable Wisconsin, Rutgers, or UNLV, while keeping [Dequan] Finn in one piece, makes us think RedHawks Over (at +115 to boot) looks quite tasty.” — Marshall
Middle Tennessee State: ” … Among other shortcomings last year, the Blue Raiders couldn’t run (ranked 129th), with the offensive burden almost solely on QB Nicholas Vattiato, who at least kept firing away but in the end saw his TD pass number drop from 23 the previous season to just 16 for an offense that barely scored 18 ppg (ranked 127th), all before Vattiato’s top targets either graduated or escaped through the portal. … Adding two wins from last year to clear the posted 4.5 wins looks like a big ask, and priced at +125, we can’t help but look Under in Murfreesboro.” — Marshall
Mississippi State: ” … The SEC isn’t the place to start a program rebuild from scratch. Meanwhile, the league slate is the same as last year when the Bulldogs covered some big spreads but were 0-8 SU and never within single digits; if it’s another big donut in SEC play for MSU, as we expect, chances to get above the posted 3.5 wins rest with a non-league slate that would require the Bulldogs to go 4-0. That’s asking a lot of MSU, so we’ll bite on a tasty price (+140) and look Under in Starkville.” — Marshall
Missouri: ” … Any remaining doubters about Mizzou should also consider that one of the nation’s better defenses (20th in scoring, 17th overall) returns seven starters, augmented by a few high-profile portal adds, including ex-WVU LB Josiah Trotter. Then there’s the schedule, which opens with six straight games at Faurot Field, and while navigating the SEC is never easy, five of the six teams with losing loop marks last season are on the Tigers’ fall slate. [Eli] Drinkwitz has already proven he’s the real deal, and we think Mizzou is a bit undervalued at 7.5 wins, priced at -110; it’s a definite Over for us in Columbia.” — Marshall
Nevada: “Jeff Choate finished 3-10 overall and didn’t win a Mountain West Conference game in his first season at Nevada. While that looks disappointing on the surface, the Wolf Pack weren’t quite as bad as their record suggests. Choate took over a mess at Nevada, and no one was expecting him to compete for a conference title in his first year. While at least one MWC victory would have been nice, the Wolf Pack were competitive most weeks. … The schedule is manageable with winnable games against Sacramento State, Middle Tennessee, San Diego State, New Mexico and Utah State. Nevada is in a great spot to improve by at least one game this season, and I won’t be surprised if the Wolf Pack sneak into a bowl. They are my sleeper in the MWC as I go Over 3.5 wins.” — Casale
New Mexico State: ” … Other portal adds will be plugged in elsewhere, including at RB, where last year’s top two rushers, Seth McGowan and Mike Washington, both transferred out, and along an almost totally rebuilt O-line. Meanwhile, the defense ranked as one of the nation’s worst (how about 126th in scoring at 36.3 ppg, sheesh!) and lost its few playmakers to the portal. Moreover, NMSU was also almost bottom of the barrel nationally in turnover ratio (minus-13, ranked 129th). Everything cries mediocrity in Las Cruces with [Tony] Sanchez in charge, even in a lower-tier C-USA, so adding two more wins to clear the posted 4.5 for the fall seems a big ask. Getting a +110 price on Under for the Aggies looks like good business to us.” — Marshall
North Carolina: ” … Meanwhile, [Bill] Belichick’s son Steve was lured from Seattle and the U-Dub staff to be the new DC, with his father obviously ready to lend a hand. Yet this was the platoon most ravaged by the late portal defections, and as many as eight transfers might start. Amid all of this, the win total has been posted at 7.5, after [Mack] Brown’s last few teams (even with NFL-bound QB Drake Maye) stalled down the stretch. As we think there’s a greater chance this all goes pear-shaped in Chapel Hill as opposed to hitting the jackpot, we’d rather look Under even as prices slide into the -155 range.” — Marshall
Northwestern: ” … The Cats will also be spending another season in their makeshift Martin Stadium astride Lake Michigan while old Dyche Stadium/Ryan Field continues its revamp (the Michigan game will be at Wrigley Field on Nov. 15). Meanwhile, while the slate offers win chances at home vs. WIU and ULM, and maybe Purdue, the Cats project as dogs in every other game. The win total is 3.5, and Under at +160 intrigues as we suspect David Braun emptied his bag of tricks in 2023.” — Marshall
Notre Dame: ” … By mid-October, Notre Dame will have faced not only that dangerous pair [Miami and Texas A&M], but also Arkansas (on the road), Boise State and USC. For [Marcus] Freeman’s sake, [CJ] Carr had better be ready to deal right from the off. There’s one more historical note: for the past 70 years, only twice has Notre Dame had back-to-back regular seasons (both under Lou Holtz) with one or zero losses (three if including Ara Parseghian’s 1969 team, which lost its second in the Cotton Bowl vs. Texas but also had a tie vs. USC on its ledger). With the posted win total at 10.5, history says the Irish are likely to slip at least twice, more likely with a new QB facing a rough baptism out of the chute. Risking excommunication, it’s an Under (at -135) for us with the Domers.” — Marshall
Ohio State: “Ohio State won’t fall far, but I think they are a little overvalued entering the season, mainly because the Buckeyes face the two top teams in my preseason power rankings: Texas and Penn State. Ohio State also has three tricky road games at Illinois, Washington and Michigan. Illinois is a Big Ten sleeper, while Washington and Michigan are two of my most improved teams in the country. My favorite bet for Ohio State is Under 10.5 wins. The Buckeyes have to go 11-1 or better to cash the over. Ryan Day managed to lose two games with the best team in the country last season. I’ll bet he figures out a way to do it again this year.” — Casale
Old Dominion: ” … If there’s a bit of a concern with the defense, it’s in the secondary, where portal adds will have to be plugged in quickly, though Belt sources suggest there’s enough manpower for the Monarchs to again more than hold their own in this loop. The posted 5.5 wins isn’t too aggressive, which is perhaps why the Over is being offered at a somewhat discouraging -160, but even with early road dates at Indiana and VPI, we expect ODU to get back to bowl eligibility — at least, as long as [Colton] Joseph stays in one piece. Unappealing as it might be at -160, we’ll still look Over in the Tidewater.” — Marshall
Oregon State: ” … Experience in the WR ranks, and keeping the O-line healthy, could help after the Beavs wore down as 2024 concluded. Meanwhile, [Trent] Bray will assume his old defensive play-calling duties and will hope to shore up a leaky rush defense that ranked 107th nationally … A front-loaded schedule makes it very possible that OSU is almost buried by midseason, and not sure the chance to meet Gronk at SoFi Stadium will be enough motivation to keep the Beavs afloat thru the stretch drive. 6.5 wins looks like a high hurdle to us, and we very gladly look Under (at a tasty +135). — Marshall
Purdue: ” … Purdue was so uncommonly bad last season that it suggested a rare complete collapse of the infrastructure that only got worse as the season progressed, with players mulling portal options and assistants networking for new jobs as a regime change became inevitable. In other words, a recipe for disaster. We don’t expect something similar this fall, and if [Barry] Odom can break 2-0 vs. Ball State (with its own new head coach) and SIU, he’ll be more than halfway to clearing the posted 3.5 wins. Odom looks like the right guy for this job, and with Over priced at a tantalizing +190, we can’t resist taking a walk on that wild side.” — Marshall
Rice: ” … The Over quoted in the -155 range suggests oddsmakers are tapping the brakes a bit, and not fully sure of any downgrade. While it’s not an optimal price, we suspect the Owls can clear 3.5 if [Scott] Abell’s spread-option keeps AAC and other foes off-balance as envisioned.” — Marshall
Stanford: ” … The bottom line is the Stanford program is in shambles right now. Head coach Troy Taylor was fired for off-the-field issues, although on the field he was just 6-18 the last two seasons. … The roster lacks talent and depth, while the schedule is absolutely brutal. Stanford travels 26,000 miles this season because the Cardinal play in the ACC for reasons I still don’t understand. They have road games against BYU, SMU, Miami and North Carolina. They also host Notre Dame and what should be an improved Florida State team. A lot has to go right for Stanford to win four-plus games with that schedule.” — Casale
San Jose State: ” … As for the schedule, it’s not overly daunting save for an early trip to Texas, but hitting midseason with just one loss looks very possible, and with Boise State and UNLV off the slate, the chance to do serious damage in the Mountain West exists. Indeed, some regional sources suggest Coach Ken [Niumatalolo] could have a double-digit winner this fall and a longshot worth a flyer as the Group of Five playoff rep (+4500). We don’t completely disagree, though the Spartans also don’t need 10 wins to get past the posted 7.5 — at +115, the Over looks like one of the few bargains left in Silicon Valley these days.” — Marshall
TCU: ” … Playmakers also return at all levels of the defense, which should be bolstered by top-shelf CB Avery Helm returning after being sidelined all of ’24. Here, however, is where it gets a bit tricky; the posted 6.5 wins sets a very low bar, but the prohibitive -190 Over price takes away some of the fun. Still, we like Over so much we feel obliged to note it … The +425 to make the Big 12 title game and +900 to make the playoff are other tantalizing options — before dismissing the latter, remember 2022 really happened in Fort Worth.” — Marshall
Temple: ” … Yet the best case for the Owls clearing the posted 3.5 wins is [KC] Keeler himself, who has winning records in 27 of 31 seasons as a head coach and just impressively navigated that tricky transition to FBS at Sam Houston. This coach knows what he’s doing! With winnable games vs. UMass and Howard out of the chute, Keeler could be halfway there before mid-September — are there a few wins available in the modest AAC, without facing loop favorites Navy and Memphis? At even money, Over 3.5 wins looks very doable.” — Marshall
Texas: ” … So, what could go wrong? Well, the schedule, while similar to ’24, looks like a bigger lift this fall, including the opener at Ohio State and a trip ‘tween the hedges to Athens after Kirby Smart won both meetings a year ago. There’s also an entire month of October away from Austin, including a dangerous journey to Florida (remember, Gator QB DJ Lagway missed last year’s UT win) and a revenge-minded Oklahoma in Dallas. … Keep in mind the Horns had their share of close calls the past two seasons that fell their way — can that continue? We’re surely now off of Matthew McConaughey’s Christmas card list, but we’re threading the needle and forecasting a 9-3 season for the Horns, which would land Under (at +155) the posted 9.5 wins.” — Marshall
Texas Tech: ” … Texas Tech is in a strong position to surpass expectations in 2025 due to the Big 12’s most manageable schedule, significant defensive improvements from elite transfers and coaching, and returning offensive talent. With odds exceeding +650 to win the conference, Texas Tech offers excellent value in a highly competitive Big 12 race. Their defensive improvements could be the key factor distinguishing between an average season and a championship run as the Red Raiders strive for their first conference title in school history.” — Hochman on why Over 8.5 at +100 is a best bet
UAB: ” … Remember, [Trent] Dilfer hasn’t won more than four games in either of his first two years, and there aren’t enough likely wins outside of Alabama State, and perhaps Joe Moorhead’s Akron, to believe Dilfer is ready for his best season yet at UAB. If anything, the opposite might be true. Thus, with prices near even money, we won’t hesitate to look Under 4.5 wins again with the Blazers.” — Marshall
UCLA: ” … Meanwhile, [DeShaun] Foster’s various portal adds on defense figure to step right into a salty platoon that does return run-stuffing DT Siale Taupaki and some rotation pieces along with a new-look secondary. Schedule-wise, if Nico [Iamaleava] can hit the ground running, UCLA has a good chance to break 4-0 (though it will need to beat Utah in the opener), and last year’s competitive pattern suggests the Bruins aren’t out of their depth in the Big Ten and can get bowl-eligible. That would be enough to clear the posted 5.5 wins, which looks like some good value at Over +125.” — Marshall
UNLV: ” … While full-on reloads via the portal can occasionally work (a la Colorado), it’s not easy throwing a team together on short notice, and many of the Rebs’ new faces (especially on defense) didn’t shine in their previous locales. [Barry] Odom’s years were the only ones in 40 that UNLV cleared the posted 8.5 wins, which still seems a bit aggressive, especially as the slate might be trickier than it looks (non-Mountain West road games at Sam Houston and Miami-Ohio are hardly gimmes). Under (-110) is our preference. Besides, Reb backers aren’t spoiled enough yet to protest a 7-5 or 8-4 mark, are they?” — Marshall
USC: ” … At least the defense made some progress last fall under new DC D’Anton Lynn, but it won’t be confused with John McKay’s 1969 Wild Bunch, as only two starters return. A tough midseason stretch including Notre Dame at South Bend, swapping Oregon for U-Dub, and [Clay] Helton planning a revenge attack with his Georgia Southern suggests a recovery could be tricky. The magic number to keep [Lincoln] Riley safe could be beyond the posted 7.5 wins, but recent trajectories suggest the Trojans might not get there (Under at +135). Whatever, we advise Riley to be looking over his shoulder this fall.” — Marshall
Utah State: ” … Keep in mind the Aggies finished sixth nationally in total offense last fall, roaring down the Bonneville Salt Flats like Craig Breedlove en route to 470 ypg. If [Bronco] Mendenhall can upgrade the defense, improving upon last fall’s 4-8, amid all the distractions, it makes us think clearing 4.5 wins is very doable, and the Over especially appealing at prices in the +120 range. Good chances for wins in pre-league (home vs. UTEP and McNeese) and enough winnable dates in their final spin around the Mountain West track suggest that Mendenhall might even net a surprise Utah State bowl bid before the conference switch in 2026.” — Marshall
UTEP: ” … As for the 35-year-old Scotty Walden, it’s worth noting that he needed a few years to get previous employer Austin Peay turned around — but we’re hardly sure the Miners are yet ready to make that sort of jump. Perhaps because FBS and C-USA newcomers Mizzou State and Delaware are both on the slate, the Miners’ posted win total has been inflated to 5.5, though neither of those two was bad in FCS, and both redshirted several players to save a year of eligibility for the transition. In other words, maybe not so easy for the Miners, who need to get bowl-eligible to land Over this fall. We aren’t too enamored with the -155 Under price, but can’t help leaning that way.” — Marshall
Vanderbilt: ” … As for that defense, [Clark] Lea returns seven starters from a gnarly platoon that allowed only 23.4 ppg, not bad considering the SEC schedule. Speaking of schedules, the SEC is never easy, but as long as [Diego] Pavia stays in one piece, Vandy again has a puncher’s chance, and a clearer path to another bowl would be sweeping the four non-league dates, which is a possibility if the Dores can get past a revenge-minded Virginia Tech at Blacksburg. With a win total posted at 5.5, the Dores seem a bit undervalued, as we suspect they can at least match last season’s performance. Priced at +140, it’s an Over for us in Music City.” — Marshall
Virginia: ” … Then there’s the defense, which collapsed down the stretch last fall when Virginia lost six of its last seven, tumbling down to a No. 101 national ranking. Questions remain in the secondary, which ranked low nationally in pass defense (120th) and will hope various portal adds provide an upgrade. As for the schedule, though it doesn’t look overly daunting, it’s risky for an entry like Virginia to take anything for granted, and with four home games before the end of September, a quick start is imperative. At best, as of summer, we don’t see the Cavs as much better than pick ’em in any ACC tilt, and while it’s nice to miss Clemson, Miami, and SMU, can Virginia really feel comfy against any loop foe? The posted 6.5 wins looks a bit aggressive to us — Under (-135) seems a better idea.” — Marshall
Virginia Tech: ” … Still, the law of averages suggests the Hokies can’t lose every close game again. So if [Brent] Pry can beat Shane Beamer’s South Carolina in the opener at Atlanta (and quiet boosters who dream of Beamer’s son at Virginia Tech) or Vandy the next week, and with a favorable ACC slate (no Clemson or SMU) to follow; they could be well on their way to clearing the posted 6.5 wins. Offered at a tempting +140, we’d rather look Over in Blacksburg.” — Marshall
Washington: “… Now, it’s up to [Jedd] Fisch, but it’s worth noting it took until his third year in Tucson for things to click with the Wildcats, and while the slate looks a bit more forgiving than a year ago, anything less than 3-1 coming out of September is going to make it a difficult slog to get past the posted 7.5 wins. The Huskies can probably get to another minor bowl, but more likely at 6-6 or 7-5. Eight wins seems a stretch, so it’s an Under for us at even money.” — Marshall
West Virginia: ” … What really has us intrigued in Morgantown is the schedule, set up for the Mountaineers to break 3-0 (though they’ll need to beat nearby Pitt in the Backyard Brawl) before Big 12 play commences, with what looks like several toss-up games. Getting bowl-eligible would be no surprise, and Over 5.5 wins at +155 has us especially interested. After all, Rich-Rod (57-18 the last six years of his first WVU stint) has done it here before!” — Marshall
Wisconsin: ” … True, at first glance, a 5.5 win total on Wisconsin would traditionally look quite low — until drilling a bit beneath the surface, that is, and searching for any clear signs that the Badgers are about to ascend again under [Luke] Fickell, who is finding the Big Ten as hard as it was during his interim year at Ohio State and much tougher than the American, in which his Bearcats became dominant. We’re not thrilled if we’re unable to get a price better than -150 on the Under at Madison, but we aren’t yet seeing any indicators that Wisconsin is ready for a renaissance under Fickell, either. With a tough slate on deck, we suspect the Badgers will miss a bowl again and land beneath those 5.5 wins.” — Marshall
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