The 2025 college football is nearly here with the season kicking off later in August, which means now is the perfect time to finalize our power rankings before the first game of the year. This season I will release my Top 20 power rankings for betting purposes. Before Week 0, the Texas Longhorns and Penn State Nittany Lions sit atop the rankings entering the 2025 regular season.
In addition to listing 20 teams, I will also be breaking things down by tiers so bettors can see where I cut off each group. Teams will move up and down based on results and play, and I’ll discuss changes to the betting market, too. I will also set the point spread from Tier 1 compared to the rest of the tiers.
College football preseason power rankings
Tier 1
1. Texas Longhorns
2. Penn State Nittany Lions
I see Texas and Penn State as the two best teams in the country entering the season. I make the Longhorns a 2-point favorite on a neutral field. If I had to pick a game between these two teams right now, I would lean Texas, assuming Arch Manning lives up to the hype.
Texas does have to rebuild quite a bit after losing 14 starters from last year’s playoff team, but the Longhorns again have one of the best two-deep rosters in the country. Manning and Co. have a big test right off the bat when the Longhorns face Ohio State on Aug. 30. According to my power rankings, there is value on Texas as an underdog in that matchup. I bet the Longhorns in July at +3.
As for Penn State, James Franklin’s squad has an experienced roster, including a veteran quarterback, and the Nittany Lions also have one of the best schedules when it comes to expected title contenders. They will be huge favorites in their first three games before they host Oregon on Sept. 27 in Happy Valley. I would grab Penn State +750 to win it all now. Those odds will likely be long gone by October. I also disagree with the market and make Penn State the favorite to win the Big Ten over Ohio State.
Tier 2 (+3 from Tier 1)
3. Georgia Bulldogs
4. Clemson Tigers
5. Ohio State Buckeyes
6. LSU Tigers
All four of these Tier 2 teams are really close. I don’t see much separating No. 3 Georgia and No. 6 LSU. I have the Bulldogs at No. 3 because I make UGA a slight favorite over the other teams on a neutral field. It should also be noted that I would also make Texas or Penn State a 3-4 point favorite over all of these teams.
These teams being rated so close is why I bet LSU +4 at Clemson in Week 1. At first, I planned to lay off that game, but the line moved so much it presented value with LSU. I make Clemson -3 in that matchup, so anything +4 or better is a play on LSU with my numbers.
I also bet LSU +112 to make the CFP, and I think the Tigers are worth a look to win the National Championship at +1400.
Georgia is breaking in a new quarterback in Gunner Stockton, but the overall roster is still loaded. The Bulldogs need to get back to playing championship defense after slipping on that side of the ball the last two years. Early tests against Tennessee and Alabama could propel or sink UGA. The Bulldogs’ win total is sitting at 9.5. I would be surprised if Georgia didn’t hit that over.
I bet Clemson +1600 to win the title back in June because I thought there was some value. At this rate though, the Tigers might be title favorites by Labor Day. Clemson is a sexy pick this season with bettors. It makes sense. This is Dabo Swinney’s most talented team in years, and if the Tigers beat LSU in the opener, they could run the table in the regular season. I lean over Clemson over 10.5 wins with their favorable schedule.
Ohio State lost a ton of leadership and experience from last year’s title team. The talent is still there; it’s just younger. That includes the quarterback position, where projected starter Julian Sayin is untested. Then again, with all-world receiver Jeremiah Smith still in Columbus, it may not matter. I do believe Ohio State is a little overvalued early in the season. I’m not interested in the Buckeyes at +650 to win the National Championship and +195 to win the Big Ten. I believe we’ll get better odds during the season.
Tier 3 (+5 from Tier 1)
7. Oregon Ducks
8. Alabama Crimson Tide
9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
10. Texas A&M Aggies
11. Miami Hurricanes
12. Ole Miss Rebels
Tier 3 is my “hold” group. I am not running to place futures bets with any of these squads, but all six teams are good enough to contend for the national title if things break their way. I would also point out that the drop off between Tier 3 and Tier 4 teams is noteworthy and sizable. One of these 12 teams in the top three tiers, I believe, will be the national champion this season. The teams listed after Tier 3 are a notch below title contenders entering the season.
I also believe there will be better opportunities to bet on most of these teams throughout the season in the futures market. Four of these teams—Oregon, Alabama, Notre Dame and Ole Miss—are starting untested quarterbacks, so there is a higher degree of variance based on how they perform. That’s why I make Texas or Penn State at least a 5-point favorite over every team in this tier.
Notre Dame is favored over Miami on Aug. 31, but I make that game closer to pick. The Irish will have one of the most inexperienced quarterback rooms in the country entering the season after veteran Riley Leonard departed. Talented freshman CJ Carr is expected to be under center versus Miami. If the Canes win that game, I might be more interested in the Irish at a better number because I believe Notre Dame will get better throughout the season.
The same goes for Oregon. The Ducks should win their first four games easily, although they will be such big favorites I don’t see their odds moving much. Then I like Penn State to beat Oregon at home on Sept. 27, which could create value on the Ducks in the future market. I make the Nittany Lions an early touchdown favorite at home in that matchup.
Kalen DeBoer enters Year 2 at Alabama in a much better spot than a year ago. DeBoer not only had to replace the legendary Nick Saban last year, but he lost 30 teams from Bama’s 2023 CFP roster. The Tide should have one of the best defenses in the SEC, but like many of the expected title contenders, they also have a new starting quarterback with Ty Simpson taking over for third-round draft pick Jalen Milroe. The team also has five-star recruit Keelon Russell is waiting in the wings. The betting market is too high on Alabama for me to bite right now.
Texas A&M returns 15 starters, including sophomore quarterback Marcel Reed. The Aggies led the SEC in scoring last season and could be even better in 2025 if Reed develops as a passer. Not many people are talking about Texas A&M in the SEC, but I see value on the Aggies at +1600 to win the conference. My guess is that number only gets shorter.
Ole Miss missed an opportunity to make the playoff last season with Jaxson Dart and a talented defense, but Lane Kiffin found a way to lose at home to Kentucky. This year’s version enters with a few more question marks. Kiffin knows how to develop quarterbacks, though, and Austin Simmons has the potential to be special. For betting purposes though, Ole Miss is a stay away for me right now. I think they could take a minor step back this season.
Tier 4 (+8 from Tier 1)
13. Michigan Wolverines
14. Florida Gators
15. SMU Mustangs
16. Auburn Tigers
Tier 4 are the teams I believe have the talent to make a College Football Playoff run, although some things have to fall into place for them to be serious title contenders. I would say these four teams are the most likely to take a big leap up or fall completely out of the rankings based on a number of factors like quarterback play, schedule strength, and coaching. The teams in Tier 1 would be over a touchdown favorite on a neutral field over any of these four.
Some people love Michigan this season. I think the Wolverines might still be a year away from competing for a National Championship with quarterback Bryce Underwood. The team is deeper and more talented in Sherrone Moore’s second season. The schedule is manageable, with a Week 2 matchup at Oklahoma being the pivotal game. I would make Michigan a slight favorite over the other three teams in Tier 4 on a neutral field.
Florida is a sexy sleeper pick to win the Natty this season. I like the Gators’ talent, but they face one of the nation’s toughest schedules for the second straight year. I’m also not sold that Billy Napier is the right guy at head coach. Then again, coaches get a lot smarter when they have a quarterback like DJ Lagway. I’m not interested in Florida at +4000 to win it all. I don’t believe they are serious title contenders yet.
No team benefits more from NIL than SMU. The school has a ton of money to spend from rich boosters. Granted, they tried to use this system 40 years too early and lost the football program, but now it’s okay to pay players. The Mustangs aren’t a one-year wonder. Kevin Jennings returns at quarterback to lead one of the ACC’s best offenses. The Mustangs at +700 to win the conference is worth a look.
Auburn really comes down to Jackson Arnold at quarterback. The Tigers struggled to throw a forward pass in some games last year, although the defense was strong, ranking 28th in the country. The talent is there for Auburn to make a big jump if Hugh Freeze finally has the right guy under center. My advice with Auburn is to skip the futures market and bet on them for a game-to-game basis instead.
Tier 5 (+9 from Tier 1)
17. Utah Utes
18. South Carolina Gamecocks
19. Illinois Fighting Illini
20. Oklahoma Sooners
Tier 5 are four team I think are good enough to make the College Football Playoff, but I don’t see them doing much outside of that, including making a title run or even winning their conference.
There is some value betting on these teams to reach the playoff. I bet Illinois at +590 to make the CFP and think they are still worth a shot at +570. Bret Bielema has an experienced squad and a schedule that avoids Penn State, Oregon and Michigan.
The team I have rated highest in the Big 12 heading into the season is Utah. The Utes have a veteran offensive line and strong defense. New Mexico transfer Devon Dampier should help solidify a quarterback position that struggled with injuries last season. The Utes do have a tricky opener at UCLA. I like the undervalued Bruins plus the points in that game. I’m just waiting to see if we can get a +7 with UCLA.
South Carolina is a bit overvalued heading into the season. Shane Beamer has a talented roster but loses three starters off one of college football’s nastiest defensive lines. I also don’t love LaNorris Sellers’ decision to trash the Rec Specs. I’m pretty sure it’s a scientific fact that a player performs better while wearing Rec Specs. There will be some spots to fade the Gamecocks as favorites this season. I am more interested in betting South Carolina as an underdog, although we won’t get many opportunities until later in the season.
The big concern with Oklahoma is that Brent Venables is a better recruiter and coordinator than head coach, which is a similar situation to what Florida is dealing with with Napier. The Sooners get Michigan at home on Sept. 6 in one of the bigger early-season matchups. Oklahoma is the one team in Tier 5 I can see making a big move up the rankings, although the schedule is a monster.
Next three
USC Trojans, TCU Horned Frogs, Tennessee Volunteers
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