The PGA Tour heads to McKinney, Texas, for the 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson, where Scottie Scheffler is set to defend his championship after shooting a ludicrously-low 31 under here in 2025.
While a majority of the world’s other top-ranked players are skipping out on TPC Craig Ranch after being tested by Aronimink at the PGA Championship, the tournament does present two other big names: Jordan Spieth and Brooks Koepka.
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Shockingly though, neither is the second favorite listed to win the Byron Nelson. So, who is behind Scottie? Let’s take a look at who oddsmakers value this week.
CJ Cup Byron Nelson list of favorites (courtesy of DraftKings, as of May 18)
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Michael Thorbjornsen (+4000)
Image for THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson – Rd 1
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson – Rd 1
The opening round of THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson is underway at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas.
Byron Nelson winner prediction
Si Woo Kim sitting second at +1275 — marginally behind Scheffler but also significantly ahead of Spieth and Koepka on the board — tells us a lot about how bookmakers view the four-time Tour winner.
He’s plenty comfortable at this course, and thinking that’s reflected in his odds. He fell one short of Jason Day here in 2023 before following that result up with T-13 and a T-15 finish the past two years.
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While his putter has been awful, Kim is third-best on Tour in driving accuracy and first in proximity. He’s comfortable playing with Scheffler and Spieth as the trio regularly competes against one another at home in the Dallas suburbs. All those factors make him the pick here, even at a relatively short number.
Ryo Hisatsune will win on Tour — soon. He’d be the second pick if we wanted something a bit longer with a bigger payout. He made his professional debut here two years ago and shot a 17 under on his way to a T-13 (with Si Woo of all people!).
Course history is fine and dandy but really we’re playing the 23-year-old Japanese sensation because he’s made 13 straight cuts and has found himself inside the top 10 four times already this year.
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson 2025 – Final Round
CJ Cup Byron Nelson 2026: Tee times, groupings, how to watch Round 1
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Tee times, groupings and how to watch the first round of The CJ Cup Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas.
CJ Cup Byron Nelson first round leader
Using Scheffler (+870) in this market a few times in 2026 in attempt to squeeze out possible value that’s never offered with his 72-hole odds has proved mostly fruitless as the world’s No. 1-ranked player has been a slow start throughout the year. He did conjure up some of that first-round magic last week at the PGA Championship — but wound up sharing the lead with a half dozen others which meant a limited payout.
With all that said, we’re looking juicier numbers here and found a trio that were worth sharing: Wyndham Clark (+4900), Tom Kim (+6200) and Eric Cole (+6600).
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Clark’s course history here is a bit rough so we’re not taking him into the weekend but before a missed cut at Aronimink he had finished inside the top 21 in three straight events. His 65 at the Zurich is perhaps noteworthy here but he’s been a player who’s consistently shot in the 60s on Thursday throughout his career so we’ll take a flier on the 2023 U.S. Open champ here.
Like Clark, Tom Kim’s most recent course history is nothing to write home about as he was cut here last year). But the 23-year-old South Korean has played TPC Craig Ranch plenty for someone his age — four times to be exact and has posted four 66s. Not sure that’ll cut it on Thursday but we’ll roll the dice on someone who finished T-6 at Myrtle Beach in his last Tour event two weeks ago.
Lastly, Cole has become a popular pick to win this week after three straight top 14 finishes or better. Not entirely confident those results spell success across four rounds but there’s plenty to like about the 64 Cole shot here last year during his opening round on his way to a T-5 finish. He also put a 65 on the board on Sunday in 2023. Point being: He can shoot low for a round. Let’s try and isolate that best we can.
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Aaron Rai went off as a 150-to-1 to win at Aronimink this week putting the 2026 PGA Championship winner on a list of major longshots.
2026 Byron Nelson best bet
Scheffler can’t be ignored or not used this week so what we’ll do is parlay him to finish in the top 10 at the ghastly number of -550 with Davis Thompson to finish inside the top 20. Similar to Cole, we’re looking Thompson’s way after a trio of top 14 finishes over the last month. He’s also an elite scrambler (sixth on Tour).
Those two tied together get us a nice +180 payout. Would we like two-to-one odds? Of course! Who wouldn’t? But let’s be practical and not greedy.
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