Cincinnati Reds
Team Record: 77-85 (.475)
4th Place, NL Central
Team ERA: 4.09 (18th)
Team OPS: .693 (21st)
What Went Right
The Reds were one of the league’s buzziest teams going into the season, with an exciting young lineup that was expected to push the team into contention for the division. Few players followed through on the hype, with Elly De La Cruz breaking through as one of the best young players in the league. The 22-year-old shortstop flashed some immense upside over 98 games in 2023, hitting 13 homers with 35 steals. He followed that up with a .259/.339/.471 slash line with 25 home runs, 105 runs scored, 76 RBI, and led all of baseball with 67 steals across 696 plate appearances. And Tyler Stephenson had a career year, hitting .258/.338/.444 with 19 homers and 66 RBI. Jonathan India was the only other hitter to post above-average numbers, hitting 15 home runs with 13 steals and a .750 OPS. On the pitching side, Hunter Greene flourished as the team’s ace, posting a 2.75 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 169 strikeouts across 150 1/3 innings in a breakout season. Nick Martinez proved to be a valuable addition to the pitching staff. The 34-year-old veteran right-hander appeared in 42 games for Cincinnati, 16 as a starter, and posted a 3.10 ERA and 1.03 WHIP across 142 1/3 frames.
What Went Wrong
One of the 2024 draft season’s biggest mysteries was how playing time would be split among the plethora of young Reds hitters. Noelvi Marte, a popular sleeper pick at third base, cleared things up when he was handed an 80-game PED suspension to start the season. Marte went on to play in 66 games, posting just a .549 OPS with four homers and nine steals. If only things had stopped there. Promising young second baseman Matt McLain missed the entire season after undergoing surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder just before Opening Day. He later suffered a setback in his rehab with a stress reaction in his ribs. Christian Encarnacion-Strand was to be a middle-of-the-order force for the Reds after slugging 13 homers in 63 games for the team in 2023. The 24-year-old first baseman hit just two home runs with a .513 OPS across 123 plate appearances before his season was cut short due to a wrist injury. Jeimer Candelario managed to hit 20 homers while slashing .225/.279/.429 before ending his season on the injured list in August. And Spencer Steer appeared to be on the verge of a breakout season, getting off to a hot start through the first three weeks of the season. While he did hit 20 homers and steal 25 bases, he slashed just .225/.319/.402 on the season. With better injury luck next season, this could still be an offense worth investing in for a bounceback in 2025.
Fantasy Slants
** De La Cruz was seen as one of the volatile and riskier picks in the top two rounds last season, but he played himself into top-three consideration in 2025. With his solid hard-hit rate and blazing speed, he’s likely to continue running higher BABIPs that can overcome his strikeout rate, but he’s not exactly going to be a batting-average anchor. No, you’re drafting him to carry a team in the stolen base department next season. He’s just going to be one of those top picks you’ll need to plan for later with players who can hit for a higher average.
** Despite a breakout season, Hunter Greene carries significant risk going into 2025 after a late-season elbow injury limited him to two shortened starts to end the year. Aside from the health concerns, a .237 BABIP and 9.3 percent walk rate point to some regression coming for the 25-year-old flamethrowing right-hander. Still, he has the swing-and-miss capabilities to overcome his flaws, as we saw in 2024.
** Stephenson proved to be a capable backstop for fantasy purposes, slugging 19 homers with 69 runs scored, 66 RBI, and a .258 batting average. He benefited from the multitude of injuries on the team by hitting in a premium spot in the lineup over the second half. After posting a career-high 9.1 percent barrel rate, he could contend for 20 home runs next season and remains a solid fallback option at the position.
** Steer’s batting average came crashing down last season as his BABIP saw some regression due to a suppressed hard-hit rate and a tendency to pull fly balls. Still, he hit 20 home runs for the second consecutive season and has success on the bases, going 25-for-28 in stolen base attempts. With an 11 percent walk rate, Steer is a safer pick in OBP and points leagues but should be a solid multi-category source regardless of format. Just watch the playing time if this team is fully healthy going into the year.
** The Reds lineup in general could be one to buy into for a bounceback in 2025 after a disappointing season. This includes all of the hitters who missed time with injury, or in Marte’s case, a suspension. Cincinnati’s ballpark remains a terrific offensive environment. McLain will be someone worth watching next spring. A healthy showing in camp could make him a fast riser in drafts and a popular sleeper pick after hitting .290/.357/.507 with 16 homers and 14 steals over 403 plate appearances in 2023. A healthy Encarnacion-Strand could make a significant difference in the middle of the order, with 30 home run upside. The same can be said for Candelario, though maybe to a lesser degree after he produced his best home run pace with 20 over 112 games. Marte was considered one of the better young prospects in baseball before his suspension. Perhaps his disappointing showing could be attributed to some pressing after such a late start to the season. You can really make a case for any one of these players as a sleeper/bounceback pick and will likely go for discounts in fantasy drafts.
Key Free Agents
Buck Farmer, Amed Rosario, Justin Wilson, Nick Martinez (opt-out)
Team Needs
The team’s biggest need is health. As alluded to before, a healthy lineup can make a world of difference for the 2025 Cincinnati Reds. A full season from Hunter Greene, leading the rotation would go a long way. But the team does need someone to step up behind their ace. Nick Lodolo could be that starter, but injuries continue to limit his season innings output. Still, the 26-year-old left-hander has excellent upside to provide a nice one-two punch at the top of the rotation. The team also got a peak a one of their top pitching prospects Rhett Lowder, who posted a 1.17 ERA across six starts. That success is something he can build on but won’t repeat with a 6.3 percent K-BB rate. Some trusty bullpen additions are also needed. Alexis Díaz converted 28 saves for the team, but it came with a 3.99 ERA as he saw his strikeout rate dip with no improvement in his walk rate.
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