Braves look to snap losing streak behind Grant Holmes starting against Pirates

After the Atlanta Braves got nearly single-handedly bombed by Ryan O’Hearn, the Braves have now lost at least three-straight games on five different occasions since the start of June. They’re currently going in the wrong direction but they have no choice but to push forward as they look to avoid dropping a series against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Grant Holmes is getting the ball to start this one for the Braves and it’s clear that the main hurdle that Holmes has to clear is successfully navigating the lineup for a second time. If he can do that then he’s perfectly capable of breaking through and delivering a quality start. If he can’t get through the order a second time then we’ll likely see some more pitching struggles.

The numbers for Holmes’ trips through the orders are honestly staggering. The firt time through the order, Holmes is a very solid pitcher with a 2.57 ERA and a slash line against him of .197/.285/.283. That second time through the order is usually a doozy, as he’s now sitting on a 6.99 ERA while opponents are hitting .311/.387/.664. Assuming he makes it through the second time through the order without stepping on a land mine, he actually improves upon his first time through the order numbers and posts an ERA of 1.84 with opposing batters hitting .173/.283/.250 against him. That’s been pretty rare, as he’s only faced 60 batters this season for a third time in a single game, compared to facing 144 batters for the first time through the order and 137 on the second trip.

So while it’s tough to boil it down to “Holmes has just got to get through the second trip through the order safely,” that’s largely been the case for Holmes. Fortunately, he’s improved a bit over his past three starts when compared to the struggles he had in mid-June so hopefully he’ll continue to stay on the right path against a challenging Pirates lineup.

Meanwhile, the Braves will be getting to tangle with Jared Jones for the first time as a team. Jones has had a very up-and-down go of it so far this season — he’s made seven starts so far this season and in three of those starts, he’s gotten blown up for four runs or more. He’s also only made it through five innings one time this season, so he hasn’t exactly been an imposing threat on the mound this season.

With that being said, he’s got a serious heater that averages 99-mph (98.6 to be exact, according to Statcast) and he’s been generating an elite whiff percentage of 32.8 percent. That could actually bit a bit frustrating for the Braves, as they currently have the league’s tenth-highest whiff rate on four-seamers as they’ve whiffed on 23.3 percent of the fastballs that they’ve seen so far this season. They also have the (tied for) third-lowest “perfect contact” rate on four-seamers, so if Jones gets rolling against the Braves then it might be because they can’t find a way to put the bat to the ball when it comes to that heater of his.

Still, the Braves have been getting better at the plate lately after spending nearly the entirety of June struggling mightily at the plate. Atlanta has scored at least four runs in their last seven games. This was after they accomplished that task only four times in their final 14 games to end June, so we shouldn’t be taking this plate resurgence for granted. The offense is showing real signs of life again but they need the pitching staff to get things back under control again, otherwise they’ll just be continuing to struggle but in a more exciting way than how they were struggling in June.

The Pirates offense is rolling, so that will be a tough challenge for Atlanta’s pitching staff. We could be in for plenty of runs once again and hopefully the Braves can continue to swing the bat well so that they’ll have a shot at potentially winning any slugfest that might break out tonight. We’ll see what happens!