Bowl projections: Ohio State remains No. 2 in College Football Playoff field as Iowa State joins top four

Before we get to this week’s changes in the weekly bowl projections, let’s address a change that you may have expected. I still have Ohio State as the No. 2 seed in the College Football Playoff projections because the Buckeyes’ loss to Oregon on Saturday was actually already included in the projections. My belief is that the Buckeyes will run the table and get revenge against the Ducks in the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis, leaving each of them at 12-1. Therefore, Ohio State would receive the first-round by as conference champion. 

The one change among the projected top four this week is Iowa State replacing Utah as the Big 12 champion following the Utes’ 27-19 loss at Arizona State Friday night. Star QB Cam Rising returned for the Utes, but he wasn’t sharp in the loss.

Utah, meanwhile, didn’t just drop out of getting a bye in the CFP projections — the Utes dropped out entirely. Undefeated BYU replaced them, slotting in at No. 9. The two play each other on Nov. 9.

Utah is not out of the conference race yet. Even though the Utes are two games back of co-leaders BYU, Iowa State and Texas Tech, only a third of the conference schedule has been played. There is a long way to go, but Utah’s margin for error is gone.

Now, if things went really sideways in the Big 12, Boise State could end up with a bye as one of the four highest-ranked conference champions. The assumption is that the byes would go to the power conference champions, but being a Power Four conference champ is by no means a requirement.

Teams on the bubble this week include Iowa, Kansas State, LSU, Missouri, Notre Dame, SMU, Tennessee and Utah.

Quarterfinals

First round

There are two huge games in the SEC next week that could shake up the CFP picture. Georgia visits Texas looking to stay in the conference race. The Bulldogs already have a loss to Alabama, and it becomes difficult to see a path to the SEC title if they have two losses and no tiebreakers with the Longhorns or Crimson Tide. Georgia still has games at Ole Miss and home against Tennessee as well.

The Volunteers are also looking to stay afloat in the SEC race when they host Alabama. Their loss to Arkansas really hurts because even with a win against the Tide, Tennessee still has to visit Georgia late in the season. Now, the Vols have to win one of these games for a shot just to make the CFP. I do not expect to see any 9-3 teams in the CFP this season.

For the first time in at least a few years, I do not have any sub-.500 teams in the bowl projections. The 2021 season was the last time the bowl lineup was released with no sub-.500 teams.

Don’t see your team? Check out Jerry Palm’s complete bowl projections.