Bowl projections: Big Ten, SEC dominate College Football Playoff bracket

Lane Kiffin keeps receipts, and for Ole Miss, the Rebels’ 24-19 win over LSU on Saturday pushed the program one step closer to its first College Football Playoff appearance. Ole Miss makes a substantial move in our updated playoff and bowl projections coming out of Week 5, along with fellow unbeaten Oregon following the Ducks’ statement win at Penn State.

Kiffin and the Rebels stymied LSU at the line of scrimmage and ascended in the SEC standings behind the arm of Trinidad Chambliss. One of four unblemished teams in the Big Ten nearing midseason, Oregon manhandled Penn State up front for much of the game before seeing a two-touchdown lead erased late only to win in double overtime. 

And following Alabama’s win over Georgia during a showdown between the hedges, we’re now projecting eight total teams from the SEC and Big Ten to reach the playoff, followed by the ACC champion, the Big 12 winner, the Group of Five’s best and Notre Dame, who has reentered the chat following unexpected chaos inside the top 25.

College Football Playoff 

Quarterfinals 

First round

Don’t see your team? Check out Brad Crawford’s complete bowl projections.

Projected College Football Playoff Field breakdown

1. Ohio State (Big Ten champion): Winning with defense is new for the Buckeyes, and they looked dominant in their first road game of the season at Washington. Keeping Demond Williams and Jonah Coleman out of the end zone was just as impressive as Ohio State’s season-opening win over Texas when that Caleb Downs-led group stymied Arch Manning and the Longhorns. No team in the country is playing better on that side of the football nearing midseason.

2. Miami (ACC champion): With an extra week to prepare for what will be an angry Seminoles team next week, the Hurricanes look like the lone ACC representative at this point unless Georgia Tech can stay unblemished over the next few months or Florida State gets back on track after the loss to Virginia.

3. Ole Miss (SEC champion): Replacing LSU in this week’s projection, the Rebels are going to the playoff for the first time under Lane Kiffin this season … as long as they avoid the dreaded toe stub against an unranked opponent in November. And they might even do it as the league champions. The only nationally ranked opponents left on the slate are Oklahoma and Georgia, and both of those come away from Oxford. A split, then winning out virtually guarantees a top-six berth for the Rebels at 11-1 even if this projection fails to come to fruition.

4. Oregon: The Ducks squandered a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter before prevailing in double overtime at Penn State, a mammoth win for Dan Lanning. Oregon still has to play Indiana and USC this season but controls its own destiny in getting to the playoff.  

5. Texas Tech (Big 12 champion): The Red Raiders are the frontrunner in the Big 12 along with Iowa State. Should those two get to title game, we’re projecting only the winner to get to the playoff. That could change if there’s parity in the coming weeks elsewhere in other conferences.

6. Alabama: Buried after a season-opening loss at Florida State, the Crimson Tide control their own destiny in the SEC championship picture after Week 5 following another win over Georgia. Kalen DeBoer’s second victory in as many years against the Bulldogs is an early season signature and gives Alabama a leg up with five games against ranked teams left. The likelihood of winning out is slim, but Saturday’s win was assuredly a vital notch in the resume.

7. Georgia: The Bulldogs had chance to beat Alabama at home, but it didn’t happen, and the humiliation for Kirby Smart continues at the hands of the Crimson Tide. The rest of Georgia’s slate includes Ole Miss, Texas and Georgia Tech. The previous win over Tennessee will come in handy if the Vols keep it up.

8. Texas A&M: On an afternoon where the Aggies’ usually explosive offense wasn’t at its best, outside of a career-best outing from Le’Veon Moss, Texas A&M’s defense picked up the slack against Auburn to stay unbeaten. That’s what it takes to win every weekend in the SEC. Coming off the 41-40 win over Notre Dame, Texas A&M is sparkling at 4-0 through Week 5 and outlasted an opponent whose backs were against the wall following a black-and-blue loss to Oklahoma.

9. Indiana: Curt Cignetti warned all who would listen, and he was right. Iowa imposed a much tougher game on his Hoosiers compared to their previous opponent, but Indiana came through in the fourth quarter on Fernando Mendoza’s 49-yard strike to Elijah Sarratt. It was a road win in the Big Ten with the “survive and advance” mentality on full display for the Hoosiers on a day where several other top 15 teams went down.

10. Penn State:  Drew Allar’s 35-yard touchdown pass to Devonte Ross with 10:30 remaining pulled the Nittany Lions within seven points against Oregon before a 7-yarder to the same target knotted the score at 17 in the final seconds to force overtime. However, Allar’s interception in double overtime ended it. Penn State’s two remaining games against ranked teams come against Ohio State and Indiana in November. 

11. Notre Dame: Guess who’s back in the playoff picture after a multi-week hiatus? That’s right, it’s the Irish. With Florida State and Georgia Tech among the teams to fall out of our playoff projection this week, Notre Dame is in under one specific scenario — Marcus Freeman’s team finishes 10-2, and somewhere over their final eight games snatches a victory over a nationally-ranked opponent.

12. South Florida (Group of Five champion): The American is up for grabs, and the Bulls are the current pick to win it. They’re going to have to likely beat North Texas and Memphis to get there. And Tulane could be waiting in the final. If there’s end-of-season chaos across various Power Four leagues, there’s a scenario in which the American puts its top two finishers in the playoff. We’re not ready to call for that, yet.