The Big Ten is flying high these days. After watching the SEC and Clemson dominate the college football landscape for close to a decade, the Big Ten has produced back-to-back National Champions with Ohio State and Michigan.
Can the Big Ten pull off a threepeat? It’s possible. The Buckeyes are once again one of the title favorites, along with Penn State and Oregon. Those three teams are also the clear favorites to win the conference crown and earn the automatic bid to the College Football Playoff.
If you’re looking to get into college football betting and make Big Ten futures picks at the top sportsbooks, read on for the college football picks and analysis from SportsLine expert Thomas Casale.
All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Big Ten title odds (via FanDuel)
Big Ten futures odds and picks
Favorites
Ohio State Buckeyes (+190)
The defending champions are intriguing because they lost a lot of key players off last year’s title team but are still loaded with young talent, led by all-world sophomore receiver Jeremiah Smith. However, the Buckeyes must replace eight starters on defense, including team leaders like Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau.
Smith is the most dynamic player in the country, but like many top contenders this season, Ohio State will be breaking in a new quarterback. Julian Sayin takes over for Will Howard. There is no denying Sayin’s talent, although Howard’s experience and leadership in big games will be missed. The Buckeyes must also replace three starting offensive linemen, their top two running backs and receiver Emeka Egbuka.
I think Ohio State is one of the toughest teams to judge heading into the season. It still has elite talent at every position, but it’s hard for any team in a major conference to lose so many important players and be just as good. It won’t take long to get a read on this year’s Ohio State team. The Buckeyes host Texas in their opener on Aug. 30.
I think Ohio State is a bit overvalued entering the year. I make Penn State the favorite to win the Big Ten, so I would pass on the Buckeyes at +190. I also took Texas +3 in the opener because I made the Longhorns slight favorites in that matchup.
Penn State Nittany Lions (+230)
Is this finally the year James Franklin and Penn State get over the hump? It better be. The Nittany Lions return 14 starters and have the most experienced quarterback in the Big Ten. With Ohio State and Oregon replacing so much production from last season, it feels like the time is now for the Nittany Lions.
It feels like Drew Allar has been playing college football since 1988. Now a senior, Allar needs to cut down on mistakes in big games. It says something that I bet Notre Dame in the CFP last year and when Penn State got the ball back late down 27-24, I said to my son, “Here comes the Allar interception.” That was followed seconds later by an Allar interception.
Allar doesn’t need to be a world beater, he just needs to play a little better against top competition. That won’t be as easy without tight end Tyler Warren, who caught a program record 104 passes last season. To put that in perspective, all of Penn State’s other receivers combined to catch 102 balls.
Franklin hit the transfer portal to upgrade the receiver position and the 1-2 punch of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen return at running back. I think the offense will actually be more explosive this season, even with the loss of Warren. Receiver was a weakness last year, and I expect transfers Kyron Hudson (USC), Trebor Pena (Syracuse) and Devonte Ross (Troy) to make the group more productive.
The defense has lost star Abdul Carter, although there is still enough talent at every level for new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles to work his magic. Overall, Penn State might have the fewest holes of any title contender entering the season.
The Nittany Lions host Oregon and travel to Ohio State, but the schedule is manageable. Penn State ranks No. 2 in my preseason power rankings behind Texas, and the Nittany Lions are serious contenders to produce the Big Ten’s third straight National Champion.
Oregon Ducks (+330)
Like Ohio State, Oregon must replace a lot of key contributors from last year’s team that entered the College Football Playoff as the No. 1 seed. Don’t cry for Dan Lanning just yet, though. No coach in college football does a better job of working the transfer portal and replenishing talent than Lanning.
The last two seasons, Oregon had the luxury of starting highly experienced quarterbacks in Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel. That won’t be the case this year when sophomore Dante Moore takes over. Moore started a handful of games for UCLA in 2023 but was inconsistent with 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions.
Moore will have a lot more talent around him at Oregon and he is always a threat to create plays with his legs. Another advantage Moore has is Oregon will be big favorites in its first four games. That should give all the new pieces on offense time to gel before heading to Penn State on Sept. 27.
While the Ducks’ ceiling may not be as high as last season, the schedule really plays into their favor. Outside of the trip to Penn State, Oregon could be favored in the rest of its games. The Ducks avoid Ohio State, Michigan and Illinois, while road games against Northwestern, Iowa, Rutgers and Washington are all winnable.
There is a strong chance Oregon finishes the season with no more than two losses. If one of those defeats comes on the road at highly-ranked Penn State, the Ducks will be in good position to grab a playoff spot.
Overvalued
Michigan Wolverines (+1000)
Michigan went through a transition year last season after losing head coach Jim Harbaugh and most of the key contributors from the National Championship team to the NFL.
Sherrone Moore is in a much better position heading into his second season. Moore signed the nation’s top quarterback recruit in Bryce Underwood and Michigan’s defense will once again be a strength after closing last year holding Ohio State and Alabama to a combined 23 points.
My issue with the Wolverines is I think they are a year away from being a serious Big Ten contender again. The quarterback position was a disaster last season and that will be much-improved with Underwood and Fresno State transfer Mikey Keene. However, +1000 odds to win the Big Ten are too short for Michigan when teams like Illinois are sitting at +4100. I make the Wolverines closer to +1600 to win the conference.
Undervalued
Illinois Fighting Illini (+4100)
Speaking of the Fighting Illini, I am really high on them this year. Illinois returns 17 starters from last season’s 10-win team and has the most favorable schedule in the conference. The Fighting Illini avoid top contenders Penn State, Oregon and Michigan, while getting Ohio State at home on Oct. 11.
Luke Altmyer is one of the Big Ten’s top quarterbacks and the defense has playmakers at all three levels. This is Bret Bielema’s deepest, most talented team at Illinois with 48 lettermen returning. When you combine talent, experience and schedule, the Fighting Illini have a chance to be this year’s version of Indiana.
While +4100 is a good price for Illinois to win the Big Ten, the bet I really like is the Fighting Illini +520 to make the College Football Playoff. If Illinois avoids a bad upset and takes care of business at home, the Illini should be in the playoff discussion at the end of the season.
Best bet to win Big Ten
Penn State (+230)
As I mentioned above, I make Penn State the favorite to win the Big Ten, so I see a little value on the Nittany Lions at +230. Ohio State and Oregon have more overall talent but both teams are younger and relying on new faces at key positions. Everything lines up for Penn State to win the Big Ten this season and be a top-two seed in the College Football Playoff.
Big Ten win total best bet
Indiana Hoosiers Under 8.5 (-140)
Let me first state that I don’t believe Indiana is a one-year wonder. Curt Cignetti is one of the top coaches in college football and I expect the Hoosiers to be a mainstay at the top of the Big Ten standings.
However, oddsmakers have caught up to Indiana. After finishing 11-2 both straight up and against the spread last season, bettors now have to pay a premium to back the Hoosiers.
Cignetti did another good job of using the transfer portal to fill in gaps, including adding quarterback Fernando Mendoza from Cal to replace the departed Kurtis Rourke. The thing that concerns me with Indiana is the Hoosiers will face a tougher schedule this season with road games versus Iowa, Oregon and Penn State, along with hosting a strong Illinois squad.
My ceiling for Indiana is nine wins. I believe more has to go right for the Hoosiers to cash Over 8.5 than the Under. This edition of Indiana feels like a solid 8-4 team.
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