The Big 12 released its 2025 football schedule Tuesday, setting the stage for another season of back-and-forth battles in a conference that delivered thrills on a weekly basis in 2024.
When Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark banged the podium to proclaim his conference the most competitive in the country at media days last July, he had no idea just how correct he would be. The final Big 12 standings featured a four-way tie for first place as Arizona State, Iowa State, Colorado and BYU all finished with a 7-2 record in conference play. The standings reflected the late-game heroics and epic thrillers the conference produced on a weekly basis. No team could be deemed a heavy favorite in league play, and no underdog was incapable of springing an upset.
Unfortunately, the loss accumulation in this parity-driven conference left the league without any real contenders in the all-important College Football Playoff Rankings. The four regular season co-champions were all ranked in the CFP top 25, but none high enough to really contend for an at-large bid.
As the Big 12 looks ahead to 2025, its list of contenders looks just as crowded. In the eyes of the oddsmakers, no other power conference has more teams with odds of 10/1 or better to win the league (five) and no other conference has favorites with odds as long (+550) as the Big 12’s co-favorites (Kansas State and Arizona State). Essentially, the Big 12 boasts several good teams, but may lack a dominant national title contender.
Which is exactly where the league was at the end of 2024.
That’s not to say an at-large bid is impossible for the Big 12 as key nonconference showdowns provide opportunities to impress national audiences. Those games, along with some big conference matchups, will determine the Big 12 title race and College Football Playoff future for the conference.
So let’s look at some of the games we expect to have the biggest impact.
Kansas State vs. Iowa State (Aug. 23)
So much of a team’s early season stock comes down to visibility, and the spotlight will be bright in this one. Conference co-favorite Kansas State will meet 2024 Big 12 runner-up Iowa State in Ireland for a Week Zero clash. Both teams return talented starting quarterbacks in Avery Johnson (KSU) and Rocco Becht (ISU). And both teams boast coaching staffs that are among the most respected in the league. With FCS opponents for each team when they get home, the winner should be an early mover up in the rankings after Week 1.
Auburn at Baylor, Baylor at SMU (Aug. 30 and Sept. 6)
We’re grouping Baylor’s first two games together because the CFP impact really will come down to the totality of the two results. The Bears have renewed excitement around the program heading into 2025 and all of that buzz will be put to the test immediately with two games that will set the tone for how the team — and possibly the conference as a whole — is looked at nationally in 2025. First up is Auburn, which has plenty of talent on the roster but is transitioning in a lot of new pieces both on the field and the coaching staff. Through that lens, this is a team that you’d maybe rather play early than late. Then comes a trip to Dallas to play reigning ACC runner-up SMU. The Mustangs bring back enough from last year’s team to be a quality win for CFP purposes but maybe not so much that winning on the road is an impossible task. There are lots of different ways these two weeks could go, but a win in both games positions the Bears as a team that could demand real respect from the selection committee at the end of the year.
Kansas will likely be an underdog in Columbia, but the Jayhawks are capable of winning this game. The two long-time rivals haven’t played since 2011 before Missouri left the Big 12, and the renewal of that series will be circled by both sides — even if the players were in elementary school the last time they met. Redshirt senior quarterback Jalon Daniels fold provides the Jayhawks offense an opportunity to hit the ground running early, and that’s what they’ll need to do to pull off a road upset and give the Big 12 a nationally respected conference title contender in the first weeks of the season.
Arizona State at Baylor (Sept. 20)
This is the first of many clashes between those four or five teams projected to have the best chances to win the Big 12, and so the outcome will set the stage for the conference title race. One team walks out with a potential tiebreaker advantage, while the other faces a much smaller margin for error in the path to Dallas and the conference title game. For reigning Big 12 champion Arizona State this Week 4 clash stacks up with a trip to Mississippi State in Week 2, requiring Kenny Dillingham’s group to be road warriors in the early part of the season. If the Sun Devils can win both games — and Baylor can win at least one of its two high-profile non-conference games — then Arizona State will be in the top 25 and well on its way to national recognition as a candidate to make a return trip to the College Football Playoff.
Kansas State at Kansas (Oct. 25)
Kansas State has won 16 straight games against Kansas, but two consecutive losses by four points or less show that Lance Leipold has closed the gap in the rivalry. The Jayhawks return to their stadium to host this year’s game after renovations moved last year’s home games to Kansas City, so expect a rabid crowd. Depending on how each team has fared in the early pivotal games, there could be an added sense of desperation for either or both.
Arizona State at Iowa State (Nov. 1)
Arizona State faces an interesting schedule conundrum with so many of its biggest games of the season on the road. The reigning Big 12 champs get Mississippi State, Baylor, Utah — and this game against Iowa State — all on the road. Not only is it a rematch of last year’s Big 12 title game with the starting quarterback for each team back, but it’s also a potential key head-to-head result for tiebreaker advantages. Arizona State won’t have opportunities to log wins against the likes Kansas State, BYU or Kansas in the 2025 regular season.
Texas Tech at Kansas State (Nov. 1)
The second of two huge Big 12 games on Nov. 1, Texas Tech will have a chance to win its way into the Big 12 title picture after nearly forcing the league into tiebreaker mayhem with a late push in 2024. Texas Tech gets head-to-head opportunities against Kansas, Arizona State, Kansas State and BYU in a five-week window that put Joey McGuire’s team in the spotlight right as the selection committee is preparing for its first batch of CFP Rankings. While other teams have one or two games that will define their shot at competing for a Big 12 title or at-large bid to the playoff, Texas Tech’s postseason chances will mostly be won or lost on the field in late October and early November.
BYU at Texas Tech (Nov. 8)
This is arguably the toughest game on BYU’s schedule, and the early November date means it will be loaded with College Football Playoff rankings implications. The Cougars avoid all four of the other conference title favorites, and with a nonconference slate that includes FCS Portland State, Stanford and ECU there’s a chance that the Cougars make it to the final month of the regular season with a gaudy win count. Lubbock, Texas is a tough spot for any team, but especially for one traveling from Provo, Utah. It is likely this will be among the league’s biggest games in November.
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