When the Big Ten added Oregon, UCLA, USC and Washington ahead of the 2024 season, it created a brand new dynamic to life in conference play. Traditional geography was thrown out the window, and now the league covered the entire continental United States. From New Jersey and Maryland along the Atlantic Ocean, to Washington, Oregon and California along the Pacific.
Road trips were about to become much more difficult, and it was an obvious subject of discussion. One that continued last week when USC’s Lincoln Riley and Oregon’s Dan Lanning brought up the difficulties of preparing their teams for it. The complaints aren’t likely to end any time soon, because if we know anything about college football coaches, it’s that they’re like the rest of us. They’ll always be complaining about something.
But how much validity is there to the complaints? I dug into the numbers, and it turns out there’s plenty, but far more for certain programs than a select few.
Last week, we saw Oregon, USC, UCLA and Ohio State all make trips of at least two time zones, with the teams splitting. Ohio State and Oregon won, while the Los Angeles schools both fell short in the Land of Lincoln. Those results were very much in line with how things have gone around the conference.
Since the start of last season, road teams in Big Ten conference games are 41-51 (.446) straight up and 46-45-1 (.505) against the spread. When we break those down to the games featuring the road team traveling at least two time zones away from home (or across the Rocky Mountains) to play a game, the records drop off a cliff.
|
Everybody |
41-51 (.446) |
46-45-1 (.505) |
|
Everybody crossing Rockies |
11-20 (.355) |
12-19 (.387) |
|
Eastern schools |
32-39 (.451) |
39-31-1 (.557) |
|
Eastern schools crossing Rockies |
4-11 (.267) |
6-9 (.400) |
|
West Coast schools |
9-12 (.429) |
7-14 (.333) |
|
West Coast schools crossing Rockies |
7-9 (.438) |
6-10 (.375) |
| Everybody but OSU, PSU & Oregon | 28-50 (.329) | 38-39-1 (.494) |
| Everybody but OSU, PSU & Oregon crossing Rockies | 5-19 (.208) | 8-16 (.333) |
Those road teams are 11-20 (.355) straight up and 12-19 (.387) ATS. When we break those results down and separate West Coast schools heading east, and the eastern schools heading west, we see a different breakdown.
You’ll notice that the win percentage of West Coast teams on the road goes up from .429 overall to .438 when crossing the Rockies, but those records are misleading. Oregon is carrying the weight. The Ducks are 4-0 in such games, and 3-1 ATS. That means the other three are only 3-9 (.250) straight up and ATS in such situations.
On the flip side, Ohio State and Penn State are 2-1 crossing the country and 1-2 ATS. The other 12 are 2-10 (.167) straight up and 5-7 (.417) ATS. Last week, Oregon and Ohio State were 2-0 while UCLA and USC were 0-2, keeping in line with how things are going.
So it seems the travel certainly has a serious impact on the traveling teams, but the league’s best programs are more immune to it. After all, the one loss between Penn State and Ohio State when they’ve traveled is when Ohio State lost by a point to Oregon last year. So the best defense against jet lag looks to be talent.
A silver lining for Penn State
I imagine Penn State fans are down bad following Saturday’s double-overtime loss to Oregon, and I understand why they would be. It was another big stage against a top team, and even though they mounted an impressive comeback, they still fell short in the end. The offense once again struggled mightily to score the points needed to pull off the win and let the world know that Penn State is a legitimate national title contender in 2025.
They will now have to continue hearing about James Franklin’s record against top 5 teams, as will Franklin and the players. It sucks, without question (hearing about it, not the record, though that sucks too). But there is a silver lining, even if Penn State fans aren’t in the mood to hear it.
Drew Allar and the new receivers might not be the answer, but James Franklin’s decision to poach Jim Knowles paid dividends on Saturday, and could be the deciding factor in Penn State’s ability to break through later this season.
What’s lost in the defeat is how the Oregon offense struggled too. In Oregon’s first four games of the season, the Ducks’ offense had a success rate of 53.3% and was scoring 4.40 points per possession. It was doing so thanks primarily to its ability to create explosive plays 18.5% of the time. It had been playing like one of the best offenses in the country until Saturday night in Beaver Stadium.
The Nittany Lions held Oregon to 17 points in regulation. It’s only the fourth time in Dan Lanning’s 46-game tenure at Oregon that the Ducks were held to 20 points or fewer in regulation, and the first time since they beat Wisconsin 16-13 last November. If we remove the overtime, Oregon averaged only 1.89 points per possession with a success rate of 45.8% and an explosive play rate of 7.1%. Those marks are all well below how the Ducks had been performing beforehand.
That tells me the Nittany Lions have a defense capable of slowing down any offense they face. That defense give them a chance on the road against Ohio State later this season, and maybe in the Big Ten Championship should they return there as well. It’ll be there for any possible playoff game, too. If there’s any reason to keep the faith, that’s it.
October will make or break Lincoln Riley
Penn State wasn’t the only program dealing with “here we go again” anxiety last week, as USC went on the road as nearly a touchdown favorite and lost. The Trojans were 4-0 and flying high with two possible Heisman Trophy candidates in Jayden Maiava and Makai Lemon, but despite both playing well, the defense couldn’t come up with the stops it needed to pull off a win. An Illini team that was manhandled the week before by Indiana dominated the USC defensive line and found more success running the ball between the tackles than it had in prior games against teams like Western Michigan and Western Illinois.
What felt like a chance for USC to deliver an emphatic statement about its place in the Big Ten this year was missed, and now the Trojans face the most consequential stretch of their season. They’ll play only two games in October. After a bye this week, they’ll be back home to face No. 20 Michigan. A week later, they’re on the road to play No. 21 Notre Dame. If they don’t win both of those games, it’ll be fair to wonder if the Lincoln Riley experiment will ever work out as planned.
It’s his fourth season with the Trojans. You’re not supposed to still be dealing with these questions by this point. Through 18 games as a Big Ten program, USC is 11-7 under Riley with a mark of 6-6 in conference play. The loss dropped the Trojans’ mark against AP-ranked teams to 4-11. They opened last year with a win over No. 13 LSU and have dropped four straight since.
Perhaps splitting these next two games will be enough so long as the Trojans put up a good fight against Oregon late in the year, but if they lose them both, you’re suddenly staring at the real possibility of another 7-5 season. That might be enough to cause USC to eat the money and move on.
Big Boy Throw of the Week
Curt Cignetti was correct. Indiana had a far more difficult time against Iowa than it did against Illinois, but that doesn’t mean Fernando Mendoza didn’t make some extremely impressive plays. None more so than when he stood in the pocket and took a helmet to the chin to buy enough time to deliver an absolute strike down the field.
He’ll probably want to have a talk with running back Roman Hemby about how to pick up a stunt, though.
Factoid of the Week
In the annals of wild bowl game sponsors of yore, the MicronPC.com Bowl is up there.
Going with my gut
Every week I pick the Big Ten games against the spread based on nothing but my gut reaction to the number. No digging into numbers — just vibes, baby. I even track my record to embarrass myself publicly. Any game not included is due to there not being a posted line at time of publishing.
No. 7 Penn State at UCLA: This is an interesting spot for Penn State. You’re coming off a tough loss at home for so many reasons, and now you’re going across the country to face a UCLA team that looks absolutely defeated. The Bruins have fired their coach and are staring down the possibility of a winless season. Penn State certainly wouldn’t be the first team to let one loss lead to two by overlooking an opponent, so it’s important for James Franklin and his staff to keep this team looking forward instead of back. My gut says they will. The Pick: Penn State -25.5
Wisconsin at No. 20 Michigan — Michigan -16.5
No. 22 Illinois at Purdue — Purdue +9.5
Washington at Maryland — Maryland +6.5
ULM at Northwestern — Northwestern -10.5
Michigan State at Nebraska — Michigan State +11.5
Minnesota at No. 1 Ohio State — Ohio State -23.5
Last Week: 3-3
Season: 29-24
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