It's impossible to sugarcoat the stretch the Mets are starting to come out of.
After a seven-game winning streak gave them a 62-44 record at the end of play on July 27, New York had a 2-14 stretch, dropping them from first place in the NL East to a spot where they'll need a very hot finish to overtake the Phillies and win the division.
During the aforementioned stretch, the Mets were nearly no-hit, saw lead after lead evaporate, watched their starting pitching struggle badly, and lost all seven of the one-run games they played.
The Mets dealt with a combination of very poor performance with a dash of some really unfortunate events and bad luck mixed in (losing seven one-run games in a row is bonkers). It was the kind of bad run that is hard to believe while it's happening.
Despite all that went wrong over the last few weeks, though, the Mets are still very much in the driver's seat when it comes to reaching the postseason — up two losses on the Reds for the third Wild Card spot, within striking distance of the Padres for the second spot, and one hot streak from being right back in it for the NL East title.
They started to right the ship this past weekend against the Mariners, taking two of three games from a very hot team as New York rode strong pitching and a revitalized lineup that is starting to click again.
Let's assess how things are going for the 2025 Mets and what's to come…
The good
The Mets are oozing with talent and are relatively healthy as they enter the stretch run. And no one will care about what they did in the first few weeks of August if they wind up back in the postseason, where they would be incredibly dangerous.
As has been the case all year, the success of the offense will likely rise and fall with the performances ofFrancisco Lindor,Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, and Brandon Nimmo — and all four of them started to heat up as the Mets came out of their malaise over the last week.
That's not a coincidence.
The bottom of the lineup has been better lately, especially with Francisco Alvarez (the Mets are holding their breath about his thumb) being a different hitter since he returned from a stint in the minors. But this team will likely go as far as the top of their lineup will take them.
The starting pitching is also beginning to stabilize after failing to provide much length or effectiveness for most of New York's 2-14 spiral.
Kodai Senga was sharp his last time out, Clay Holmes looked very good on Sunday night against Seattle, and Nolan McLean gave the team a real jolt when he fired 5.1 shutout innings during his big league debut on Saturday at Citi Field — looking not only like a pitcher with the stuff to succeed at this level, but like someone who has the temperament for it as well.
Then there's Edwin Diaz, who is in the midst of a lights-out campaign. In 48.0 innings over 47 appearances, Diaz has a 1.69 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 70 strikeouts — a rate of 13.1 per nine. He has been nearly untouchable in 22.2 innings since June 6, with a 0.79 ERA.
Another real bright spot lately has been lefty reliever Gregory Soto, who hasn't allowed an earned run in 8.1 innings since being acquired from the Orioles.
The imperfect
The Mets were coming out of a 1-10 stretch when we did this exercise at the halfway point of the season, which illustrates how streaky they've been.
One cause for concern right now would be the combination of Tyler Rogers and Ryan Helsley not immediately becoming the dominant 1-2 punch the team hoped would be a bridge to Diaz.
Rogers has a 1.93 ERA in 9.1 appearances, but he has just one strikeout during that span and has been much more hittable with New York than he was for San Francisco. Rogers has given up 13 hits in those 9.1 innings after surrendering just 38 in 50.0 innings earlier this season for the Giants. Meanwhile, Helsley blew back-to-back late leads last Thursday and Friday and has a 7.11 ERA since being acquired from the Cardinals.
Both Rogers and Helsley have stuff that is too good for them to get hit this much, so the expectation should be that they'll stabilize — and Helsley started to do so with a scoreless inning on Sunday night while striking out a pair.
Meanwhile, even with the rotation being better lately, it would still be very helpful if they were able to provide more length. No team can withstand its starters giving as little length as the Mets have, which has caused a serious ripple effect and put the bullpen in a really bad spot.
Holmes, who is miles past his previous innings total, might simply be a five-inning guy for the remainder of this season, and could possibly wind up in the bullpen before the year is over.
David Peterson had been giving 6.0 or more innings regularly until recently, so a bounce back there should be expected. But the Mets need more from Senga and especially Sean Manaea, who has a 4.78 ERA and has pitched past the fifth inning just once since returning from his injury on July 13.
Another big shot in the arm could be provided by Mark Vientos, who possesses game-changing power but has yet to put things together this year. Vientos catching fire and taking over the main designated hitter duties while getting some starts at third base would seriously lengthen the lineup.
What's to come
With the trade deadline in the past, McLean up, and impact position players like Jett Williams and Carson Benge almost certainly not debuting until 2026, the group that the Mets have now will closely resemble the one that will get them to the playoffs or not.
One big exception is the potential debut of Brandon Sproat, who could possibly join McLean in the rotation at some point if New York goes to a six-man staff or if Holmes is eventually shifted to the bullpen for the remainder of the year.
There's also a possibility the Mets use Sproat out of the bullpen if there's a need there.
While Jonah Tong has been the most dominant pitcher in minor league baseball this season, it's hard to envision him getting the call this year unless he's utterly dominant in Triple-A (where he shined in his first start over the weekend) and the Mets wind up dealing with multiple injuries.
As far as the schedule New York will have to navigate to reach the postseason, it isn't easy.
Following a six-game road trip this week against the Nationals and Braves, the Mets play 19 of their final 32 games against teams that are fighting for playoff spots — including seven games against the Phillies, three against the Tigers in Detroit, three against the Reds in Cincinnati, three against the Cubs in Chicago, and three against the Padres at Citi Field.
The other games aren't cupcakes, either, including seven against the plucky Marlins and a three-game set against a Rangers team that isn't contending but remains dangerous.
The Mets, who made the playoffs in 2022 and 2024, have never had a four-year stretch where they made three postseason appearances. To change that, they'll have to lock in down the stretch and take it.
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