No. 11 Alabama and No. 14 LSU meet at Tiger Stadium with the postseason on the line. Neither team is dreaming of SEC titles for the first time in a long time, but the College Football Playoff is still within reach.
The Tide (6-2, 3-2 SEC) and Tigers (6-2, 3-1) meet in a de facto elimination game in the CFP race with four games remaining in the regular season. It’s a strange backdrop for this rivalry, which always has something on the line, but rarely does the entire season’s tenor depend on the final score. Failing to reach the CFP would be a disappointment for either school, particularly Alabama, whose fans have been spoiled by the unparalleled success of Nick Saban for 17 seasons. Now Kalen DeBoer leads the Tide into the bayou trying to become the first, first-year Alabama coach to defeat LSU since 1990 (Gene Stallings).
Meanwhile, Brian Kelly, whose programs typically peak in his third season as the coach, is at an inflection point. The Tigers rebounded from a season-opening loss to USC with gusto but then fell flat in a second-half meltdown at Texas A&M two weeks ago. One team’s coach will satisfy fans. The other will be labeled a disappointment. It’s quite the matchup on the field, on the sidelines, and in college football sportsbooks. We’ll dive into all of those below.
Alabama vs. LSU: Need to know
A battle of top-tier quarterbacks: Alabama might have three or four losses this season if not for Jalen Milroe. He doesn’t quite fit what Kalen DeBoer wants to do on offense, but he’s still stellar within the system, scoring 25 touchdowns (13 passing) while scrambling just enough to pick up tough yardage and keep drives alive in wins against South Carolina and Georgia earlier this season. LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier was phenomenal for most of the year, a worthy follow-up to Heisman winner Jayden Daniels, but then came the second-half performance two weeks ago at Texas A&M. Was he seeing ghosts? He threw three interceptions and placed the Tigers in a no-win situation; they lost for the first time in 104 games when leading by 10 at halftime. He’s thrown as many touchdowns (seven) as interceptions in the last four games.
LSU’s D-line vs. Milroe is the key: Milroe is dangerous both through the air and on the ground, but he’s also susceptible to the pass rush. He’s been sacked 11 times in the last four games, a staggering trend that needs to be corrected if the Tide want to make a run to the playoff. LSU has been fantastic rushing the passer all season, racking up 28, including 13 in the last three games. Former Oregon transfer Bradyn Swinson leads the attack, ranking eighth in the nation with eight sacks, and linebacker Whit Weeks has emerged in recent weeks as a threat. Milroe dominated LSU with four rushing touchdowns last season, so slowing him is the key to a win for the Tigers.
LSU offensive lineman is out: LSU offensive guard Garrett Dellinger will miss the game with a high-ankle sprain that will require surgery. That’s a big loss for the Tigers, who enter the week leading the SEC in pass protection, allowing only four sacks. Can Alabama exploit something in the middle of the Tigers’ offensive line? LSU has struggled to run the ball most of the year with the SEC’s worst rush offense (115.3 ypg) and was held to a season-low 1.0 yard per rush in the 38-23 loss at Texas A&M two weeks ago, when Dellinger went down with the injury.
How to watch Alabama at LSU live
Date: Saturday, Nov. 9 | Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Tiger Stadium – Baton Rouge, Louisiana
TV: ABC | Live stream: fubo (Try for free)
Alabama vs. LSU prediction, picks
Which Garrett Nussmeier shows up Saturday night? The LSU quarterback was fantastic in the first half two weeks ago against Texas A&M, but he fell apart in the second half as he threw three interceptions and watched a 10-point lead melt into a 15-point loss. Alabama’s defense is not going to scare many quarterbacks in the secondary, but the Tide can mix things up and force them into mistakes thanks to their defensive line. Milroe is the straw that mixes the TIde’s drink. If he can find room and rushes for 50-ish yards, Alabama wins. I’d feel more confident with this pick if it wasn’t at night, but we’ll stick with the Tide as the slight favorite. Pick: Alabama -3
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