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As the Toronto Maple Leafs prepare to kick off their 2025 Stanley Cup playoff run, there’s no question that they have the most to prove – and the most to lose.

The Maple Leafs aren’t just playing to get to the second round of the post-seson – they’re playing to keep the team together beyond this season. And they’re playing to keep Buds management intact. 

If they fail and lose in Round 1 to the Ottawa Senators, the Leafs’ core of talent will likely be broken apart and sold to the highest bidder. That’s the potential bad news. But the good news for Maple Leafs fans is that they’re not the same team that has disappointed so often in recent years.

This year’s Leafs are a far better team, and they’re very likely to follow the evolutionary competitive path that other elite teams have followed en route to a long playoff run.

You don’t have to go back far in the annals of NHL history to see teams that have struggled for years in the post-season, only to finally figure out how to thrive. For instance, the Colorado Avalanche began their Nathan MacKinnon era back in 2013-14, but it took them nine seasons to win a Cup. And in the two seasons that followed their 2021-22 Cup win, the Avs once again have failed to get out of the second round.

Colorado didn’t make it out of the second round through 10 post-seasons between 2002-03 and 2020-21 before they won the franchise’s second Cup. The Leafs, meanwhile, are at 11 straight post-seasons without a Conference final appearance. The Leafs are right around that threshold.

Similarly, the current defending Cup-champion Florida Panthers also had a long and bumpy road that preceded last season’s championship run. The Panthers failed to get out of the first round from 1997-2021. Mind you, they only made it to the playoffs five times during those years. And even when Florida did get into and beyond the first round, they needed another two seasons, including getting to the Cup final and losing to the Vegas Golden Knights in 2022-23, before finally winning it all last season.

It’s clear, then, that the Leafs are aiming to follow the same pattern we’ve seen from the Avalanche and Panthers. Toronto has systematically remade much of their roster – from their goalie tandem to their defense corps to their depth on the wing and their bottom-six group of forwards – and they now have the talent, grit and determination to knock off the Senators and get at least to the second round of this year’s playoffs.

The Buds are tough, patient and resilient in a way Toronto wasn’t in previous years, and they’re going to give the Senators all they can handle and then some.

This isn’t to say that Ottawa is guaranteed to lose to the Leafs in Round 1. The Sens have an up-and-coming core of talent, and they may shock people and upset the Leafs in this looming series.

The Senators were projected to make the playoffs the past few seasons, and failed in the years leading up to this playoff series. Thus, if the Senators do lose to the Maple Leafs, Sens fans are not going to be happy. That said, the Senators are like every other team – Toronto included – in that they probably have to learn how to lose in the playoffs before they learn how to win. And that’s why we’re picking Ottawa to lose to the Leafs this year.

The Maple Leafs may have only one playoff series win since 2005, but that doesn’t mean they can’t and won’t go on a long playoff run this spring. Toronto management has built a Leafs roster that is resilient, speedy and super-skilled, and the Sens are likely to learn the hard way how different this Buds team really is.

A team’s recent history isn’t always likely to repeat itself. Sometimes, a team can evolve for the better and shake off the shackles of the past as it finally gets to experience the glory of a long playoff run. And for that reason, we’re of the opinion that the Maple Leafs are finally going to give their fans a memorable and lengthy playoff experience. And that process will begin with Toronto sending the Senators home in the first round.

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