Kyle Larson was 55 points behind Denny Hamlin before the Chase got underway in Darlington. It took Larson just three races to pip Hamlin as the championship leader, and after the win in Kansas, the Hendrick Motorsports driver has opened up a 26-point lead over the Joe Gibbs Racing veteran.
While the tables have turned on Hamlin and his No. 11 JGR Toyota team, his crew chief Chris Gayle took a moment to predict that Larson and the No. 5 team won’t be able to keep up the points averages. It was a direct response from a team that hasn’t had a strong start to the Chase, but still is very much in contention.
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“The 5 has had a pretty flawless start to this,” said Gayle to Matt Weaver. “He could put ten races together that way. But averages say he won’t. We haven’t had a flawless start, so we’ve got room to move forward. So, that’s all we’re going to focus on: what we can control.”
While the focus is on controlling the controllables, the expectation from those outside JGR was that they would be the team to beat at intermediate tracks. That was based on Toyota’s dominance at similar layouts earlier this season. However, inside Hamlin’s camp, they always considered Larson a threat at these tracks.
Kyle Larson’s been on fire in the Chase, but the real story is how these intermediate tracks shake out over the next few races. Subscribe for more interesting stories.
“The 5 car has always been good here, even when we say he didn’t have the pace he normally has,” said Gayle. “I think he finished 5th here in the spring. I looked specifically at here(Kansas), Charlotte, Vegas, and he didn’t finish out of the top seven in either of those. Even not having maybe the pace that we had in the spring, he(Larson) had good pace, so you know those guys are going to figure it out with enough races and enough time and get better. So I guess that’s expected.”
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It wasn’t just Larson who was better than Hamlin in Kansas; an unexpected Ford finished second, the No. 2 Penske driven by Austin Cindric. Hamlin post-race said that he had the third-best car and was the third-best driver on the day. Yet he achieved a target he had set for himself heading into the stretch of three intermediate races.
Hamlin said he needs to have good days in Kansas, Vegas, and Charlotte and even revealed that a good day for him was a 50+ point race day. Finishing third, Hamlin did achieve that, collecting 51 points in Kansas. This was the first time he racked up 50 points since the start of the Chase.
And that target seems to be one that is clear across the No. 11 team. While other drivers believe that wins will be required for the championship to go down to the wire, Gayle revealed that it may not be the kind of win-or-die situation most believe it is.
“Nothing really that I have a major concern with just now. We’re 26 points behind. We just need to go win. We should go win and execute every week,” said Gayle, “And we really don’t have to win.”
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When Gayle says they should win but don’t have to, what we see is the team is now switching gears to what it needs rather than what it wants.
Everybody wants a win. A win counts for 55 points; second place only counts for 35. That 20-point gap on any given race day is a major point swing. But according to Gayle and according to Hamlin’s own expectations of good days, wins may not necessarily be the most important thing in the long run.
While Larson is currently on a hot streak, Hamlin and Co. know that points average will matter more with every passing race. And there is an expectation that while Larson’s Chase is off to a flying start, it’s not something he can maintain for six more races.
Consistent 50-point race days and a win somewhere in the mix when Larson slips up will get Hamlin right back into the fold. And a 26-point deficit isn’t really much. If Larson can overturn a 55-point deficit in three races, Hamlin can achieve the same, therefore balancing the scales.
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The battle will continue in Vegas, where Hamlin won in the spring despite a pit road speeding penalty, and Larson finished 7th. When Hamlin won the South Point 400 in 2025, Larson was the runner-up. Larson last won the spring race at Vegas back in 2014. It wouldn’t be a surprise if next weekend the race ends with either Hamlin or Larson in victory lane, with the other settling for second.
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The post “Averages Say He Won’t” – Denny Hamlin’s Crew Chief Drops Blunt Verdict on Kyle Larson’s Flawless Chase Surge appeared first on EssentiallySports. Add EssentiallySports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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