There has been a lot of uncertainty around Connelly Early since he arrived in DC. When Early joined the Nats he was injured, but was supposed to be back by mid-August. However, he suffered a set-back which put him on the shelf a little longer. Early is back now and is making his first rehab start today in West Palm Beach.
Early is pitching in the “Bridge League”. If you do not know, the Bridge League is where a lot of the high school draftees and FCL players play once their season is over. The FCL strangely ends right after the draft, so the players who are not quite ready for Low-A often play in the Bridge League. It is a controlled environment which is often at the team’s Spring Training sites.
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At first Early was set to pitch in a Low-A playoff game, but instead the team decided to put him in the Bridge League. I think part of that is not wanting Early to be too amped in his first rehab start back. It may be the Low-A playoffs, but it is still a playoff setting where Early could get over-amped.
With not much time left this season, it is unclear if Early will get into an MLB game. The best case is that he is able to get one or two starts in. With how the season has gone since the Nats traded Curtis Mead for Early, it would be nice to get a sneak peak of him if he is fully healthy.
Even with the injuries, I am bullish on Early once he is healthy. In 91.2 innings this season, Early posted a 3.44 ERA and struck out 93 batters. His underlying numbers suggest he still has more room to improve with a 4.60 FIP, a 4.32 xERA and 4.10 xFIP. However, he still had success in his rookie year and is a gamer on the mound.
Stylistically, Early reminds me a bit of a harder throwing Foster Griffin. He throws 6 pitches and has confidence in all of them. Early’s command is not quite where Griffin’s is, but at 24 years old, he has plenty of time to get there.
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The last start Early made before getting hurt was actually against the Nats. He was opposing Cade Cavalli in his famous outing in Boston. Early was actually rolling through 4 innings. He did not allow a run and struck out 5 hitters. CJ Abrams was one of those strikeout victims, and Early made him look silly.
That sweeper is a big part of Early’s arsenal against left handed hitters. It is honestly a pitch he should be throwing more than 7.9% of the time. Batters hit just .103 against the offering and he picked up 21 of his strikeouts on the sweeper.
One of the great things about Early’s deep arsenal is that he has different options depending on the matchup and what is working. While the sweeper is his big putaway pitch against lefties, he dominates with his changeup against righties. As a prospect, the changeup was seen as Early’s best pitch. However, this season he was more effective against lefties.
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While Early’s fastballs are not insanely hard, both his 4-seamer and sinker have good movement. The sinker gets a lot of ground balls, while the 4-seamer gets empty swings. It is just a very complete arsenal and when Early’s command is on point, he is a joy to watch.
As Early develops as a pitcher, I hope he can develop plus command. Right now, it is closer to average. His walk rates are around average, but sometimes he can miss big. That led to a lot of home runs this season. With his feel to pitch, I have confidence in the command developing though.
Assuming Early does not suffer any further set-backs, he will be a very exciting addition to the Nats rotation. I think he can slide in as a quality number 3 starter who can make playoff starts down the road. Early actually proved last year that he is capable of making those big starts.
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He actually took the ball in a winner take all game against the Yankees. Early looked sharp and threw the ball well. However, he got let down by his defense and outdueled by Cam Schlittler who was even better.
Right now there is a lot of negativity around the Mead for Early trade. I have to admit, the elbow issues with Early are scary. However, he has no structural damage and will be pitching in a game today. If he stays healthy, Early will be a gamer in the middle of the rotation for years to come.
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