Is Denny Hamlin Really the Driver to Beat For the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Title?

Denny Hamlin could hardly have asked for a better way to enter NASCAR’s new Chase.

Hamlin enters the 2026 Chase as the No.1 seed after one of the strongest regular seasons of his career. He finished with 4 wins, 14 top-five finishes and 17 top-10s, while remaining the only Chase driver without a DNF through the first 26 races.

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His seventh-place finish at New Hampshire officially locked up the top seed.

That gives Hamlin 2,100 points heading into the Chase, 25 ahead of Ryan Blaney at 2,075. NASCAR’s new format rewards the regular-season champion, but that advantage is smaller than it sounds.

A single win is worth 55 points.

So Hamlin’s 25-point cushion can disappear very quickly.

That is why the debate around Hamlin isn’t really about whether he has been the best driver this year, he clearly has, but the real question is whether the No.11 team can survive ten races without giving the competition an opening.

NASCAR Experts See Almost No Weakness in Hamlin

Jordan Bianchi and Jeff Gluck discussed Hamlin’s championship chances on The Teardown podcast, and for them, finding a genuine weakness in the No.11 team isn’t easy.

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Bianchi dismissed the idea that bad luck should even count as a weakness.

“But that’s not even, like, a weakness. That’s not anything in their realm of control whatsoever. Like, yeah, Hamlin’s luck sucks. And we get that,” Bianchi said.

Then came the bigger compliment.

“Denny’s arguably the hardest-working driver in the sport,” Bianchi said. “He studies the most. The team is on their game. The Toyota has the best cars this year. Joe Gibbs Racing is the best team. They check all the boxes.”

Hamlin has been one of the most consistent drivers in the field, and he also put together a stretch of three consecutive wins at Nashville, Michigan and Pocono earlier in the season.

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NASCAR itself noted that Hamlin’s New Hampshire result was his sixth finish of seventh or better in seven races.

That is difficult to beat over a long championship run. 

There is another huge advantage for Hamlin. He has already won at every track on the 2026 Chase schedule.

• Kansas: More Cup wins there than any other driver.

Those numbers certainly don’t guarantee another trophy, but they make the schedule look far less intimidating for Hamlin than it does for some of his rivals.

And the final race could be particularly important.