At Daytona International Speedway, Shane van Gisbergen will attempt to hold back Ryan Preece for the 16th and final spot inside the Chase, with the entire field of title combatants locked in once the checkered flag flies. These two are separated by 31 points in the drivers’ standings, and just six points in the owners’ standings.
(Note: Preece was docked 25 driver points for intentionally wrecking Ty Gibbs at Texas, but that penalty was not applied to the owner’s championship)
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Austin Cindric sits 44 pts above the cut-line and Brad Keselowski is 66 pts below and remain mathematically in contention, although barring a major swing the focus will be on SVG and Preece.
Through 160 laps of racing on Saturday night, the main obstacle for both of these drivers will be avoiding an incident, as big wrecks and carnage have always been a part of these tightly packed superspeedway races. This year’s race also brings some unknowns with a brand new rules package and no practice to test it out.
But still, we thought it would be interesting to look at how these races have worked out for SVG and Preece in an effort to predict how things might play out this weekend:
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Shane van Gisbergen’s Daytona Cup record
Starts: 4
DNFs: 1
Average finish: 28.5
Best finish: 16th (2025)
Laps led: 9
Ryan Preece’s Daytona Cup record
Starts: 13
DNFs: 7
Average finish: 24.3
Best finish: 4th (2021)
Laps led: 14
Shane van Gisbergen vs. Ryan Preece head-to-head
Preece leads the head-to-head 3-1
2024 Daytona summer: SVG 35th, Preece 39th (neither scored stage points)
2025 Daytona 500: Preece 32nd, SVG 33rd (neither scored stage points)
2025 Daytona summer: Preece 14th, SVG 16th (Preece scored 6 stage points)
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2026 Daytona 500: Preece 25th, SVG 30th (Preece scored 3 stage points)
In all four Daytona Cup races they have contested together, SVG and Preece have finished within five positions of each other. They were separated by five positions or fewer in all of these examples, and if that trend continues, SVG’s 31-point cushion should leave him in a strong position in the drivers’ championship.
And while the sample size is smaller, SVG also seems to do a better job of reaching the end of these Daytona races. A DNF for SVG would be an uncomfortable spot as the race plays out, but another Preece DNF would almost certainly end his hopes of making the Chase.
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Even if Preece scores the maximum stage points and SVG scores none, Preece would still need to finish at least 12 positions ahead of the New Zealander, with SVG holding the tiebreaker.
At Daytona, anything can (and will) happen
Watch: Race Rewind: Chaotic final laps lead to epic finish in Daytona 500
If they continue to shadow each other like past years, then that is an advantage for SVG as he plays defense. Preece will have to be super aggressive from the start as he needs to collect stage points to cut that gap to SVG. Now, the ‘win and you’re in’ format may be gone, but a race win still awards a massive chunk of points, jumping from 35 for the runner-up finisher to 55 points for the race winner. While Preece is 0-248 in trying to win a points-paying Cup race, Daytona is a place where anything can happen, and that’s not hyperbole.
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The path into the Chase via the owner’s standings is less complicated, and even a couple of stage points can make a world of difference there. If either of the scenarios from the two most recent Daytona races play out again this weekend, that would be just enough to get the No. 60 RFK Racing Ford in over the No. 97 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet.
Also, what these stats don’t show is the fact that Preece was actually leading last summer’s Daytona race when he got shuffled back with three laps to go, ultimately crossing the line bumper-to-bumper with SVG. At the same moment Preece lost the lead, eventual race winner Ryan Blaney was running outside the top ten, so that’s just how quickly things can change at Daytona — even without a track-clearing incident.
Read Also:
Complete NASCAR Cup points standings after New Hampshire 2026
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