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This evening, we’re attacking nothing but arms! It may be leg day at the gym, but on the diamond, it’s all about focusing on the starting pitchers.
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Headlined by Reid Detmers, here are my three favorite MLB player props for Thursday, Aug. 5.
Best MLB player props today
|
Player |
Pick |
Odds |
|
+100 |
||
|
+119 |
||
|
-137 |
Bryce Elder Over 2.5 earned runs (+100)
The Miami Marlins roll into one of the better offensive matchups on the board. They feature four elite-rated hitters and two strong-rated hitters on Batters-Box’s current season ratings.
They will face Atlanta Braves right-hander Bryce Elder, who has hit a few speed bumps over his last five starts. During that stretch, Elder owns a 4.32 ERA, 5.50 xERA, and 1.36 WHIP while allowing plenty of hard contact and barrels.
Four of Miami’s six highest-rated hitters swing from the left side, and that’s where Elder has really struggled. Across the last 60 left-handed hitters he’s faced, he owns a 5.02 ERA while allowing a 48.7% hard-hit rate, 12.8% barrel rate, and just a 28.2% ground-ball rate. Those hitters have also produced a .393 xBA, .735 xSLG, and .360 xwOBA during that span.
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The Marlins have started to turn things around after their July slump, and this is a great spot for the Fighting Fish to keep it rolling.
I’d play this down to -110.
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Where to watch: MIAM, BravesVision
Reid Detmers Over 7.5 strikeouts (+119)
One of the highest average strikeout rates on Wednesday’s slate belongs to Los Angeles Angels left-hander Reid Detmers, who has put together an outstanding season.
Detmers carries a strong rating on Batters-Box’s current season dataset while boasting an elite matchup wOBA and strikeout rating. Over his last five starts, he has maintained a strikeout rate north of 30%, and over his last three, that number has climbed to more than 36%.
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The Baltimore Orioles present a favorable matchup for strikeout props. Baltimore has eight hitters above the league-average strikeout rate and has struggled to make contact against left-handed pitching. Over their last 60 at-bats against southpaws, seven hitters own at least a 23.3% strikeout rate, with four sitting above 30%.
Over the last week, Baltimore has a near-30% strikeout rate, so I’d play this down to even money.
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Where to watch: MASN, ABTV
Sean Burke Under 6.5 strikeouts (-137)
Coming off a 10-strikeout performance against the New York Yankees last week, Chicago White Sox right-hander Sean Burke will look to replicate that success against one of the hottest offenses in baseball.
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Despite the Boston Red Sox hanging two touchdowns on the scoreboard last night, I don’t expect the Red Sox to completely fall apart at the plate tonight. Burke has been outstanding lately, carrying a strikeout rate near 30% over his last few starts, but this is a completely different challenge.
Over their last 12 games, the Red Sox own a 126 wRC+, .356 wOBA, .811 OPS, and just a 22.6% strikeout rate. They’ve been even tougher to punch out recently, posting a team strikeout rate below 20% over their last six games.
It’s a tough ask for Burke to dominate in back-to-back starts against two completely different offenses.
I’d play this down to -140.
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Where to watch: CHSN, NESN
Colby Marchio’s 2026 Transparency Record
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Prop picks: 360-723, -25.0 units | FADE ME!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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