Jannik Sinner vs. Juan Manuel Cerundolo odds: Where shocking French Open result ranks in biggest tennis upsets

For the first time since 2023, a tennis major will be won by neither Jannik Sinner nor Carlos Alcaraz. 

After an all-time shocker in the second round, Jannik Sinner blew a huge lead to lose to Juan Manuel Cerundolo, a tennis player who has never ranked inside the top 50 at any point in his career. 

Cerundolo’s odds had him winning roughly one in every 500 matches. This means that Cerundolo’s upset ranks better than No. 16 seed upsets in March Madness and the Patriots when 28-3 against the Falcons in Super Bowl LI. 

UPSETS LESS INSANE THAN SINNER TODAY 😵

Buster Douglas beats Mike Tyson (+4200)
Jets over Colts in SB III (18-pt dogs)
App. State beats No. 5 Michigan (33-pt dogs)
Pats vs. Falcons, SB LI (+1600 live)
No. 16 FDU beats No. 1 Purdue (+2000)
No.16 UMBC beats No. 1 UVA (+2000) pic.twitter.com/NRDaKS4gz5

— br_betting (@br_betting) May 28, 2026

Here are the historical implications of Cerundolo’s monster upset over Jannik Sinner. 

MORE: Why is Carlos Alcaraz not playing in 2026 French Open?

What happened to Jannik Sinner?

Sinner suffered from severe cramping in his match with Cerundolo, which limited his movement in a major way down the stretch. 

After taking a medical timeout, Sinner returned to lose 18 of 20 games and blow a significant lead. After the fact, Sinner attributed this to poor sleep and fatigue. It’s also worth noting that Roland Garros is in the midst of a major heat wave, with temperatures above 90 degrees Fahrenheit. 

“Started to feel very dizzy, very low of energy, and tried to serve it out but didn’t have a lot of energy,” Sinner said in a press conference after the match. “Woke up this morning. Didn’t feel very well and tried to keep the points very short.” 

MORE: Jakub Mensik injury updates following scary collapse at French Open

Jannik Sinner vs. Juan Manuel Cerundolo odds

The initial odds varied by which sportsbook one looked at, with Sinner sitting at -50000 on DraftKings. The same site also had Sinner at -300 to win the entire French Open, making the upset even more shocking. This means that any fan who bet $300 would only win $100 if Sinner won the entire major. 

According to the implied odds, DraftKings gave Sinner a 99.8% chance of winning. This means that, on average, Cerundolo would win one in every 500 matches against Sinner.

Biggest upsets in tennis history

By the odds, Cerundolo’s win is tied for the most brutal upset in tennis history, an honor that he shares with Steve Darcis, who defeated Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon in 2013. 

Here is how Sinner’s loss stacks up against other historic upsets in the tennis world, according to Sports Betting Dime.