If the Colorado Avalanche season were a boat at sea, the vessel would be taking on water with the feeling of impending doom as the choppy waters of a series sweep loom over the horizon. A journey that started in the waters of Los Angeles could come to a sinking halt in the desert of Las Vegas, as the Golden Knights have a 3-0 series lead with a chance to advance to the cup final tonight.
Colorado seems battered and bruised from the quest, as Cale Makar is clearly not healthy, and Nathan MacKinnon and Valeri Nichushkin were hobbled in game three.
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The team from the Mile High City also appears morally drained after blowing their first third-period lead to lose game two and a 3-0 first-period lead in game three. In fact, in game three, Colorado failed to register a shot in the last 12+ minutes of the final frame despite getting a power play at one point.
Vegas has been sippin’ pina coladas like a prize fighter as their (hard-earned) luxury yacht rolls into port for another night of dominance. The Avalanche have had zero answers to what Las Vegas has brought to the table, and so for the Golden Knights, the focus will be more of the same.
Will the Avalanche end the suffering and go quietly, or will they put up a fight?
Colorado Avalanche: 8-4
The Opponent: Vegas Golden Knights (11-4)
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Time: 6:00 p.m. MT
Watch: ESPN+, ESPN
Listen: Altitude Sports Radio, 92.5 FM
Colorado Avalanche
What can I really say about where the Avalanche stand today ahead of game four? A lot.
For starters, it feels like Nathan MacKinnon either got some incredible treatment over the last 36 hours or he will, at a minimum, be hobbled this evening after he took a puck to the outside of his right knee in game three. The impact was substantial enough to bench MacKinnon for most of the third period outside of one pointless power play appearance.
I don’t say pointless because MacKinnon shouldn’t be out on the power play, but he was clearly unable to make any explosive movements and was basically ineffective.
This leads me to an adjustment I hope to see from Bednar. I don’t think riding your clearly wounded top guys into the ground is going to do anything but accelerate losing.
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The approach we saw in game three just came off desperate as the top group waved off a timeout just to inevitably be too gassed to stave off an open net attempt.
Moreover, it explains why the end of game three was so lifeless.
Only one team in NHL history has come back from down 3-0 beyond the quarterfinals, and that was the 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs.
Saying things have changed since then is incredibly reductive, but back then, Leafs head coach Hap Day chose to bench the team’s leading scorer and a veteran defender to make his lineup younger, faster, and better equipped to play 60 minutes of playoff hockey.
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Here are three keys to victory for the Colorado Avalanche:
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Effort every second of every shift.
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A commitment to sacrifice and teamwork
It’s desperation time for the Avalanche (although I’d argue it has been for at least two games), and they will have to lean into that to avoid the sweep. That means controlling what they can control, and that starts with effort.
Speaking of effort, you clearly aren’t going to skill it up to a victory against this Vegas team, so to win, Colorado will have to buy into sacrificing offense for defense, grinding in the corners and below the goal-line, and crashing the net.
The approach that’s required right now isn’t a pretty one. It’s not gonna land anyone on ESPN’s top ten or make an end-of-year highlight reel. The Avalanche will have to trust themselves, prepare for battle, and play for the logo on the front of their jerseys.
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Projected Lineup:
Artturi Lehkonen — Nathan MacKinnon — Gabriel Landeskog
Nazem Kadri — Brock Nelson — Martin Necas
Ross Colton — Nicolas Roy — Valeri Nichushkin
Parker Kelly — Jack Drury — Logan O’Connor
Devon Toews — Cale Makar
Brett Kulak — Sam Malinski
Josh Manson — Brent Burns
MacKenzie Blackwood
Scott Wedgewood
Note: I have italicized the individuals who are a bit questionable tonight. We haven’t gotten the real word on either Nichushkin or MacKinnon’s status, and Cale has dealt with stuff all postseason.
Nothing has been reported, but it feels like the right time to give MacKenzie Blackwood a chance in game four.
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Vegas Golden Knights
When John Tortorella took the reins in Vegas, he talked a lot about just getting out of the way with this Vegas group, which has an established cup-winning core and a cupboard full of talent. It’s apparently exactly what was needed to right the ship in Vegas.
Good goaltending has also helped, as Carter Hart is on a Jordan Binnington-like run here in the 2026 playoffs. His success has been largely instrumental in Vegas’ commitment to the counterstrike approach, as he’s backstopped the group well when Colorado has earned the seldom-seen high-danger look.
Vegas is in comfortable territory right now, but won’t just take the foot off the gas this close to getting back to a cup final.
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Here are three keys to victory for the Golden Knights:
Vegas’ approach is undefeated against the team that many (along with Carolina) viewed as a shoo-in for the Cup Final. As the saying goes, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
With this sort of series lead, it’s human nature to let up a little bit, seeing as only four teams have ever come back from being down 3-0 in the NHL’s 109 seasons. That gives the Avalanche ~ a 3.7% chance of realizing a reverse sweep.
That’s the sort of unlikelyhood that can seep into the little habits, but as we know in Colorado, habits are fleeting and must be nurtured even when the going is good. Or else.
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The Golden Knights have done very well at getting and keeping momentum when it matters most. The first goal hasn’t mattered as much as the last goal in this series because Vegas doesn’t come out of their game when behind.
Projected Lineup:
Ivan Barbashev — Jack Eichel — Pavel Dorofeyev
Brett Howden — William Karlsson — Mitch Marner
Brandon Saad — Tomas Hertl — Colton Sissons
Cole Smith — Nic Dowd — Keegan Kolesar
Brayden McNabb — Shea Theodore
Noah Hanifin — Rasmus Andersson
Ben Hutton — Dylan Coghlan
Carter Hart
Adin Hill
Let us know what you think in the comments, Avs fans! Is this the end or the beginning? Are the Avalanche losing or winning tonight?
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