With the Mets about to break camp and travel to Houston for Opening Day on March 27 to face the Astros, they’re entering one of their most anticipated seasons ever.
There have been some recent campaigns where the legitimate hope was that it would end with a parade down the Canyon of Heroes, like 2023 (which wound up being cursed from the start) and 2016 (when the Mets bowed out in the Wild Card Game a year after reaching the World Series), but something seems different about this one.
For the first time since the mid-2000s, it feels like the Mets are building something sustainable — which is of course the stated goal of owner Steve Cohenand still-newish head of baseball operationsDavid Stearns.
The idea is to churn out impact prospects year after year while supplementing the team via trade and free agency, playing at the top of the market when it’s deemed necessary.
The Mets aren’t the East Coast Dodgers just yet, but they’re making strides.
And as the regular season begins, there’s a belief the Mets have what it takes to go one or two steps beyond where they went in 2024, when their magical season ended in Game 6 of the NLCS in Los Angeles.
Here are five big storylines to watch as things get underway…
The starting rotation
Sean Manaea is expected to be out until the end of April, while Frankie Montas‘ return should come by some point in June. That means 40 percent of the expected rotation will be missing to start the season.
Gone along with Manaea and Montas for now is the plan to use a six-man rotation, which would’ve kept Kodai Senga on a more elongated schedule and allowed Clay Holmes‘ innings to be managed a bit as he transitions from a reliever to a starter.
As they deal with the injuries, the Mets have turned to depth options Tylor Megill and Griffin Canning, who will be in the five-man rotation along with Senga, Holmes, and David Peterson to start the year.
The rotation has serious upside (Senga pitched like an ace in 2023, Holmes’ stuff is legit, Peterson had a 2.90 ERA last season), but there’s also the possibility that Senga needs time to shake off the rust, Holmes hits some speed bumps, and Peterson is inconsistent.
So the rotation bears watching early, as does the performance of Brandon Sproat in Triple-A Syracuse. If Sproat masters the level quickly, his MLB debut could come sooner rather than later — injecting a high-upside arm into the rotation.
The second base situation
With Jeff McNeil missing the start of the season due to a mild oblique injury, the expectation is that Brett Baty will get a chance to grab the regular second base job for the time being.
Baty, who got some burn at second base last year in the minors, looked the part there during spring games. He also had a terrific spring offensively.
Since this will be Baty’s fourth year getting major league time, it’s easy to forget that he’s had only 602 plate appearances in the bigs and is entering just his age-25 season.
The talent is there for Baty, and there’s still time for him to become a real part of the Mets’ future — whether that comes in an everyday role or on the bench.
While Baty could get the bulk of the starts at second base early on, the speedy Luisangel Acuña could factor in as well — perhaps as the starter at second against tough left-handers.
Juan Soto
Soto spent spring training doing what he always does — hitting homers, staring pitchers down, walking a bunch, and looking like the most confident hitter on the planet.
Now it starts for real.
Soto really is a Met, and that will be fully hammered home when he steps in the box against the Astros on Thursday and again when he digs in for his first at-bat as a Met at Citi Field on April 4.
The Mets’ offense, even without McNeil and Francisco Alvarez for a bit, should be loaded. And it will orbit around Soto and Francisco Lindor, who could form one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball. If Lindor and Soto play as expected, it should create tons of opportunities for Pete Alonso, Mark Vientos, and Brandon Nimmo to do serious damage.
How dominant will Edwin Diaz be?
Even though he has a 2.60 ERA (2.10 FIP) and 1.01 WHIP while striking out 15.0 batters per nine in 204 games over his last four seasons, Diaz remains a polarizing figure.
He has been one of the best and most dominant closers in baseball each of the last four seasons he’s pitched (he missed the entire 2023 campaign due to a knee injury), but that doesn’t stop people from pushing the panic button at the first sign of a wobble.
In fairness, Diaz did have some hiccups last season — including a sticky stuff suspension and a really bad stretch in May that skewed his final numbers a bit. He also went through a rough patch with his command in the postseason.
But Diaz– as he’s always been since 2020 — was mostly dominant in 2024, which included how he pitched from June 13 to the end of the regular season on Sept. 30. In 35 games during that span, Diaz posted a 2.41 ERA (2.07 FIP) while holding batters to a .155/.252/.241 triple slash. In 33.2 innings over those 35 games, Diaz allowed just 18 hits while walking 13 and striking out 54.
Some expect perfection from Diaz, though, or at the very least a repeat of his 2022 season — when he had one of the best relief seasons ever and garnered Cy Young votes. Diaz is unlikely to ever repeat 2022, but there’s no reason to believe he won’t be mostly dominant once again.
Will the bullpen reach its potential?
The aforementioned Diaz is obviously a huge part of the equation here, but the Mets’ relief corps beyond him has a chance to be really good.
Behind Diaz, there are three other legitimate late-inning options — A.J. Minter, Reed Garrett, and Ryne Stanek — who all have the stuff to dominate. Minter had a 2.62 ERA and 1.01 WHIP last season for Atlanta, Garrett emerged with the Mets to be one of their key relievers, and Stanek (despite a tough stretch right after he was acquired last year) was one of New York’s most reliable relievers in the playoffs.
Then there’s Dedniel Núñez, who was one of the Mets’ best relievers last season in what was his rookie campaign. Núñez needs a bit more time to stretch out after last season ended due to injury, but the expectation is that he’ll arrive quickly.
But the true X-factors here could be Jose Butto and Max Kranick, who are both viewed as potentially high-impact, multi-inning options.
Butto was a serious weapon last season, allowing just 41 hits in 74.0 innings while pitching to a 2.55 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.
Then there’s Kranick, whose stuff has played up in a big way as he completes his transition from starter to reliever.
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