The show goes on as the PGA Tour jets to Blaine, Minn., for the 2026 3M Open, and honestly, this is the part of the summer where fields usually thin out. Not this year. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is making his tournament debut, giving the event its biggest headliner to date. That alone changes the entire complexion of the week. The rest of the field doesn’t feature much starpower, but a hungry group of young stars and proven names in search of late season FedEx Cup points gives this tournament depth.
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With only three regular season tournaments remaining, the points matter a lot. TPC Twin Cities is capable of surrendering birdies, but the sheer amount of water on this golf course demands precision from start to finish. The path to separation is built on ball-striking. The greens are oversized enough that scrambling numbers get a little inflated, which quietly makes strokes gained/approach the most important stat to lean on.
Read The Line’s Joe Idone and John Haslbauer explain why they’re betting Jackson Suber at the 2026 3M Open:
Watch Read The Line’s full betting breakdown of the 2026 3M Open here.
This year’s field is obviously led by Scheffler, with a definitive gap on the odds board between Scottie and the rest. Defending champion Kurt Kitayama returns alongside Hideki Matsuyama, Tom Kim, Maverick McNealy, Keith Mitchell, Jake Knapp and Jackson Koivun, fresh off his professional debut.
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Let’s dig right in to my top-10 contenders to win the 2026 3M Open:
10. Corey Conners
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Richard Heathcote
There are more exciting names in the field, but do you know who led the entire field in strokes gained/approach at the Open Championship? That’s right, it was Corey Conners. He enters the week gaining confidence as his familiar elite level of ball-striking has returned, and he remains one of the most accurate drivers in the field. Water is lurking on 15 holes, and any player arriving in Minnesota with control questions will be punished.
The recent run of finishes for Conners proves his improvements and guiding results. Conners finished T-23 in the U.S. Open, T-7 at the Travelers Championship and T-14 at The Open. The bottom line is that his stat profile is going to optimize his chances. If the putter simply behaves, and he can avoid the disastrous blow-up hole, Conners has the game to win at TPC Twin Cities.
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9. Michael Brennan
Take one look at the list of winners at the 3M Open, and it becomes clear that TPC Twin Cities has a type. It’s players who can hit it a mile. Matthew Wolff, Cameron Champ, Tony Finau, and most recently, Kitayama. Michael Brennan fits and could challenge any of them in a driving distance contest.
He ranks third in the field in driving distance over the past three months and sits tied for fifth in SG/off the tee across the same window. The concern, as it always is with bombers, is whether the accuracy holds up when the water starts coming into play, particularly off the right hand side of the back nine. If he can find fairways, his biggest weapon is a massive advantage this week.
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8. Jake Knapp
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Warren Little
Speaking of players who can hit it a country mile, Jake Knapp is healthy again and back on the top contenders list. There will always be volatility with Knapp. The driver can produce eagle opportunities and penalty strokes within the same 30-minute stretch. That is part of the deal, but the upside should not be ignored.
Knapp finished T-3 here last season at 20-under. His 2026 profile is similar and supplies confidence that Knapp can make another run this season. He ranks 13th on the PGA Tour in birdie-or-better percentage and is gaining more than half a stroke per round with both his approach play and putter.
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7. Jackson Koivun
I’m cautiously optimistic about Jackson Koivun. He continues to be priced like a player who has already won. But then I watch him play, and it’s not so ridiculous. Koivun collected 11 collegiate victories at Auburn, twice swept the major national player-of-the-year awards and finished T-23 at the U.S. Open before beginning his professional career. His resume is worthy of the hype.
The fit makes sense. Koivun generates enough speed to handle a golf course measuring more than 7,400 yards, but his game is not built entirely around speed. He controls his irons, makes birdies in bunches and has already demonstrated that he can remain composed under pressure. Asking him to win this soon is still an enormous ask, but if Scheffler stumbles, then who else has more top-end talent than Koivun?
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6. Jackson Suber
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Sean M. Haffey
Koivun has all the hype, but the other Jackson has played too much good golf over the past two months to not love his chances. Jackson Suber finished T-4 at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, added another T-4 at the RBC Canadian Open and then recorded a T-6 at the John Deere Classic. This guy nearly led the Open Championship through 36 holes last week on his first-ever trip to Europe.
He plays with a fearless style and should be unbothered by the water-lined holes at TPC Twin Cities. The concern is fatigue, but the form is the real deal. Suber is on the best run of his career and keeping his foot on the gas. No further evidence is needed, Suber is there to win.
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5. Kurt Kitayama
The defending champion has gained more strokes at TPC Twin Cities than anyone else in this field, full stop, and he’s trying to become the first repeat winner in the tournament’s history. He should be a deadbolt lock to contend this week, but the recent form throws a bit of a wrinkle in his chances.
The results have been solid but far from spectacular: 33rd at the John Deere, a missed cut in Canada and T-40 at The Open. This venue has a way of reviving players who fit the course, and Kitayama was the perfect example last year when he broke the drought to win. History says don’t count him out.
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4. Hideki Matsuyama
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Michael Reaves
Hideki Matsuyama quietly produced a solid T-14 finish at Royal Birkdale, closing the tournament at 4-under despite never seriously threatening the leaders. He now returns to TPC Twin Cities for the first time since finishing T-30 in 2023. If the irons are clicking, Matsuyama can go on the type of runs that land you with a winning score that eclipse 20-under par, typically required to win here.
The question remains if he can make enough putts, but the easy, flat greens at TPC Twin Cities tend to remove thought and allow players to get hot. In a field with one obvious superstar and considerable uncertainty behind him, Hideki’s ball-striking gives him a safe path into contention.
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3. Tom Kim
Tom Kim’s missed cut at Royal Birkdale should not erase what happened immediately before it. A return to the winner’s circle after capturing victory at the Genesis Scottish Open, along with a T-3 at the U.S. Open, has provided jet fuel for Tom Kim’s return.
He’s the sharpest ball-striker in the field not named Scheffler, but it’s more than just the iron play. Over his last 20 rounds, he ranks first in iron play specifically at +1.3 strokes gained per round, and he’s one of only seven players averaging positive strokes gained across every measured category in that stretch. Do not diminish his chances based on power alone, Kim’s precision can absolutely prevail on this course.
2. Keith Mitchell
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Warren Little
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I know all too well about the Kieth Mitchell trip, but I have fallen into it once again. The fit at TPC Twin Cities almost makes too much sense. He’s got ample power, long iron proximity, course familiarity and an aggressive style of play that you need to win here. All of it works, and the path to the ceiling is visible.
A disappointing missed cut at The Open may not be the worst thing, and Mitchell returns to water-laden aerial style golf courses that have always fit his eye. The familiar issue is the putter, but at TPC Twin Cities, it has historically mattered less than the average tour stop. There is reason for optimism, and I couldn’t hand pick a better course for Mitchell.
1. Scottie Scheffler
In the least dramatic ranking of the week, Scottie Scheffler sits comfortable at No. 1. I could run through an abundance of data that proves this, but you all know the deal. Scheffler arrives after finishing T-4 at The Open, his latest entry in a run that also includes a runner-up finish at the Travelers Championship and a T-4 at the U.S. Open.
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The only thing that matters is if Scheffler shows up with full focus and intentions on winning the tournament. Making his tournament debut at this course carries zero course-history risk with a player this dominant. He’s the favorite by a ton because he should be.
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Joe Idone is a Read The Line contributor and host of the Preferred Lines podcast.
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