2026 NFL Mock Draft & Betting Picks: Mendoza Lock In, Jets Target Reese Early

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The 2026 NFL Draft runs April 23–25, and the NFL Draft odds are shaping the big board. Between mock drafts and Kalshi’s prediction markets, we’ve got a clear read on where things stand and where value might still exist.

This mock leans into those market signals, pairing likely landing spots with the probabilities behind them to map out how the first round could unfold.

2026 NFL Draft predictions and best bets

Pick	Odds	Date made
David Bailey drafted No. 3	43¢	4/20
first position drafted: OL	49¢	4/20
first position drafted: OL	59¢	4/20
first position drafted: DL/Edge	50¢	4/20
Makai Lemon drafted before Jordyn Tyson	20¢	4/20

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.

Final 2026 NFL Mock Draft

1. Las Vegas Raiders: QB Fernando Mendoza, Indiana

According to Kalshi, Fernando Mendoza has a 99% chance of going No. 1 overall to the Las Vegas Raiders. All the mock drafts concur, and outside of some light rumbling around trades, Mendoza is destined for this start-over in Sin City.

Kalshi probability to go No. 1 (99¢)

2. New York Jets: Edge Arvell Reese, Ohio State

The Jets are forecasted to take an edge rusher, with either Arvell Reese or David Bailey heading to Gang Green. Oddsmakers have Reese as the odds-on favorite to go No. 2, with Kalshi even higher on the Buckeyes standout, giving him a 75% shot at landing with the Jets.

Kalshi probability to go No. 2 (75¢)

3. Arizona Cardinals: Edge David Bailey, Texas Tech

If Bailey doesn’t go to New York, most mock drafts have him going to Arizona at No. 3. The Cardinals need a marquee game-wrecker on defense after sitting near the bottom of the NFL in pressure rate the past three seasons. Trade rumors involving Kansas City are shifting the draft markets, with Kalshi slightly leaning toward Bailey at 43¢ to go to Arizona at No. 3 overall.

Kalshi probability to go No. 3 (43¢)

4. Tennessee Titans: RB Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame

Jeremiyah Love’s stock is sizzling the closer we get to the NFL Draft. Some mocks have him going inside the Top 3, but most models call for the dynamic running back to land in Music City, USA. Titans new OC Brian Daboll depends on play action and RPO, so a capable ball carrier is key. Kalshi markets agree, with Love listed at 46% to get selected by Tennessee.

Kalshi probability to go No. 4 (46¢)

5. New York Giants: Safety Caleb Downs, Ohio State

After the Dexter Lawrence deal, the Giants have the No. 5 and No. 10 selections. That means they can get their guy with this pick and take the best available talent later. In a division with Dak Prescott, Jayden Daniels, and Jalen Hurts, New York needs help protecting against the pass. Downs gives John Harbaugh a dynamic field general on defense. Kalshi gives Downs a 66% chance to be the first defensive back selected in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Kalshi probability to go No. 5 (66¢)

6. Cleveland Browns: OT Francis Mauigoa, Miami

No matter who’s under center in Cleveland, the Browns need to do a better job protecting their passer. Mauigoa is worthy of a Top-5 selection, but I have him sliding a bit. Todd Monken snatches up the versatile OL who can start wherever Cleveland needs him on the line. Kalshi gives Mauigoa a 16% chance of going to the Browns, while sportsbooks have him at +650 to be selected at No. 6.

Kalshi probability to go No. 6 (16¢)

7. Washington Commanders: LB Sonny Styles, Ohio State

The Commanders could use some offensive help, but Styles is too good a player to pass up, especially considering the Commies gave up the fifth-most yards per carry. Styles was a star at the combine and has great instincts as a run stopper, as well as a coverage LB.

Kalshi probability to go No. 7 (21¢)

8. New Orleans Saints: WR Carnell Tate, Ohio State

According to Kalshi, Tate has a 15% shot at going at pick No. 8, while bookmakers are a little more optimistic at +400. New Orleans needs depth at receiver behind Chris Olave, and with Tyler Shough coming off a promising rookie campaign, the Saints have incentive to select another Buckeyes target.

Kalshi probability to go No. 8 (15¢)

9. Kansas City Chiefs: Edge Rueben Bain Jr., Miami

Off-field issues have Bain sliding to Kansas City, which has a 12% chance of drafting him at No. 9, according to Kalshi. The Chiefs need a retread on Steve Spagnuolo’s defense, and Bain’s pass-rushing prowess fits Spag’s schemes and is even more important as the AFC West gets better QB play.

Kalshi probability to go No. 9 (12¢)

10. New York Giants: OT Spencer Fano, Utah

The Giants invested in Harbaugh’s defense with the No. 5 pick and now look to protect Jaxson Dart with No. 10. Fano is the best OL left on the board at this spot, and his experience in zone blocking is an ideal fit.

Kalshi probability to go No. 10 (4¢)

11. Miami Dolphins: CB Mansoor Delane, LSU

The Dolphins’ rebuild could start with a few options, but Delane is a smart selection considering Miami will face both Josh Allen and Drake Maye twice a season. New GM Jon-Eric Sullivan has a nose for defensive backs, and while many mocks have the Fins chasing a WR at No. 11, there will be plenty of options there at pick No. 30.

Kalshi probability to go No. 11 (11¢)

12. Dallas Cowboys: CB Jermod McCoy, Tennessee

A lot of mock drafts have Jerry Jones trying to trade up for Sonny Styles. But with the Giants and Commanders pegged as potential landing spots, it’s tough to see those teams swapping selections with their NFC East rival. Dallas needs help in the secondary, badly. It gave up the third-highest yards per reception and topped the NFL in completions of 40+ yards against. McCoy would likely have been the first DB taken if not for missing 2025 with an ACL injury, and Kalshi has a defensive back as a 99% probability of being picked by the Cowboys.

13. Los Angeles Rams: WR Makai Lemon, USC

All signs point to Los Angeles adding a receiver—if it doesn’t deal the No. 13 pick. The Rams don’t have to look far, as Southern Cal’s shifty WR could be the perfect complement to Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. At 5-foot-11, Lemon slides into the slot and follows the path of Cooper Kupp in Sean McVay’s offense. According to Kalshi, Lemon has a 16% shot at being the second WR selected in the draft.

14. Baltimore Ravens: G Olaivavega Ioane, Penn State

Investing at guard not only helps keep Lamar Jackson upright but also boosts whatever is left in RB Derrick Henry’s thunderous thighs. Ioane hasn’t allowed a sack in the past two seasons, which is a big plus when you have Myles Garrett, T.J. Watt, and now Dexter Lawrence in your division.

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Edge Akheem Mesidor, Miami

Tampa Bay GM Jason Licht told reporters he’s not too sticky on age when it comes to draft picks, rather rating players on what they can do for the team—not for how long. That could tip his hand when it comes to selecting 25-year-old Akheem Mesidor. He gives Todd Bowles’ blitz-heavy schemes a finisher on the edge. According to Kalshi, Tampa Bay has a 42% chance of drafting a DL/Edge rusher with its first pick.

16. New York Jets: WR Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State

A receiver at this selection is a safe bet for the Jets, but who will it be? Given that I have Tate and Lemon off the board, Jordyn Tyson heads to New York. Tyson impressed during his personal workouts, calming concerns around his durability. He has a 10% chance of being the third WR selected in the NFL Draft at Kalshi.

17. Detroit Lions: OT Monroe Freeling, Georgia

The Lions are going after an offensive lineman with pick No. 17, and Freeling gets the nod in my mock. Some draft projections have Freeling as a Top 5 pick, with a tremendous ceiling. He has great size and athleticism, and should he still be available here, Detroit will scoop him up. The Lions have a 70% chance of drafting an OL, according to Kalshi.

18. Minnesota Vikings: Safety Dillon Thieneman, Oregon

A couple of Ducks are on the Vikings’ radar at No. 18, but Thieneman is the safer selection considering Minnesota plays in an NFC North that features Jared Goff, Caleb Williams, and Jordan Love. Thieneman fits Brian Flores’ chaotic schemes and gives the Vikes a solution at safety should Harrison Smith pack it in. Kalshi currently has CB/S as a 62% probability for Minnesota’s first selection.

19. Carolina Panthers: TE Kenyon Sadiq, Oregon

What better way to kick the tires on Bryce Young’s future than give him one of the most athletically gifted players in the draft? Sadiq “The Freak” may not slide this far back given his upside and the way tight ends have taken off. Young has been missing that safety blanket at TE that many other QBs enjoy. According to Kalshi, Sadiq has a 97% chance of being the first tight end selected, and the Panthers have a 30% shot at drafting a TE with their first pick.

20. Dallas Cowboys: Safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, Toledo

Dallas has two first-rounders thanks to the Micah Parsons deal, but won’t select again—barring a trade—until pick No. 92. The secondary is a sore spot for this team, giving up way too many big shots over the top. Using those two firsts on defensive backs isn’t a bad idea. Emmanuel McNeil-Warren visited the Cowboys, and his versatility fits new DC Christian Parker’s “Fangio-inspired” schemes as both a pass defender and run stopper.

21. Pittsburgh Steelers: WR Omar Cooper Jr., Indiana

Most mocks have the Steelers selecting a receiver in the first round, and Kalshi shows a 40% chance of Pittsburgh picking a WR with its first selection. Cooper has a 31% edge over KC Concepcion (30%) to be the fourth WR selected, which is where he falls in my mock draft. He provides steady hands in the slot for whoever is making throws in Mike McCarthy’s offense this season.

22. Los Angeles Chargers: Edge T.J. Parker, Clemson

The Bolts could go o-line or d-line at this spot. Mocks are leaning toward the latter, but are split on who will head to L.A. Parker is a certified run stopper on the edge who plays with power and grit—something that will win over Jim Harbaugh and new DC Chris O’Leary. He also has a nose for the QB, but his sack totals dipped in 2025.

23. Philadelphia Eagles: OT Blake Miller, Clemson

The recent A.J. Brown to New England rumors have the Eagles’ first-round selection swinging between WR and OL, currently sitting at 47% for an o-line to be that pick at Kalshi. But if Philly is going to continue to chew up the turf, it needs to restock the block. Miller can learn on the job from Lane Johnson and has the experience to start if Philly needs be.

24. Cleveland Browns: WR KC Concepcion, Texas A&M

Offense is the focus for the Browns in the first round. I have them beefing up the offensive line early and using this No. 24 selection on the receiving corps. Cleveland doesn’t have much beyond Jerry Jeudy, so adding a playmaker like Concepcion would be huge for a passing attack that boasted the third-fewest explosive plays. Concepcion has a 23% shot at being the fifth WR selected in the NFL Draft.

25. Chicago Bears: DT Kayden McDonald, Ohio State

The Bears got bullied by opposing run games for five yards per carry. Drafting McDonald plugs up the interior and helps stop the bleeding on the ground. He’s regarded as the top DT in the draft, with many analysts expecting him to go in Round 1, and books have him as a -160 fave to go before fellow DT Peter Woods out of Clemson. Kalshi has DL/Edge being Chicago’s first selection at 58%.

26. Buffalo Bills: Edge Malachi Lawrence, UCF

The Bills generated OK pressure but couldn’t complete that pass rush with a hurry, QB hit, or sack. Lawrence is an explosive edge that utilizes speed to beat blockers and upped his draft stock with strong showings in the Shrine Bowl and NFL Combine. He’s an excellent fit for new DC Jim Leonhard, who’s introducing a 3-4 scheme.

27. San Francisco 49ers: Edge Keldric Faulk, Auburn

The 49ers also need help getting after the quarterback. San Francisco produced the third-lowest pressure rate, along with just 20 sacks, the fewest in the NFL. The Niners are showing their age on defense and could use an injection of youth. Faulk has all the physical attributes in height, size, and arm length you want in a rusher. Kalshi gives San Francisco a 37% chance of taking a DL/Edge with its first pick.

28. Houston Texans: OT Kadyn Proctor, Alabama

The Texans re-upped QB C.J. Stroud, which means they better invest in his protection. Houston’s offensive line has been horrible the past three seasons, but the big body of Proctor solves plenty of problems. At 6-foot-7 and 350 pounds, he has freakish athleticism that can protect and run block. The Texans have a 70% chance of selecting an offensive lineman, according to Kalshi.

29. Kansas City Chiefs: OT Max Iheanachor, Arizona State

Protecting Patrick Mahomes isn’t a job taken lightly. The Chiefs need to shore up their offensive line after allowing their franchise QB to feel pressure at the seventh-highest rate among qualifying passers. Iheanachor is raw, but his athleticism stands out (9.87/10 in RAS), and Kansas City loves to take those combine freaks in the draft.

30. Miami Dolphins: WR Denzel Boston, Washington

With the Dolphins boosting their defensive backfield with the No. 11 selection, they flip the field and go with a WR at No. 30. Boston is a burly target that the Dolphins can move around and is a show of dedication to new QB Malik Willis, giving him a No. 1 option after the departure of Jaylen Waddle.

31. New England Patriots: OT Caleb Lomu, Utah

After giving up 21 total sacks on Drake Maye over four postseason games, including five in the Super Bowl, the Patriots need to add some padding to the pass protection. Caleb Lomu is the best available OT on the board at this spot and specializes in pass protection. And with rumblings that New England is making a run at A.J. Brown, it would seem even more likely the o-line gets the nod in Round 1.

32. Seattle Seahawks: CB Colton Hood, Tennessee

Tariq Woolen left a hole in the Seahawks’ championship secondary when he bounced in free agency. Hood finds himself going to Seattle in a number of popular mock drafts, especially considering the Seahawks only have four picks total. His tackling is what really appeals to Mike Macdonald’s defense. The Seahawks selecting a defensive back first has a 50% probability at Kalshi.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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