2026 NFL betting preview, odds: 3 betting trends to know for every AFC team

That noise you just heard was a nationwide sigh of relief: At long last, NFL training camps open this week.

This, of course, means that the 2026-27 season is now in sight. It also means NFL bettors are in round-the-clock handicapping mode, trying to find the best value among a Cheesecake Factory-sized menu of wagering options.

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To help simplify this laborious endeavor, I broke out the shovel and dug up a trio of noteworthy NFL betting trends for every AFC squad. Preseason win total history, Week 1 tendencies, season-long player props — read on for a smorgasbord of wagering insights for all 16 AFC teams.

We’ll have the same thing for the NFC tomorrow.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills

• Buffalo (12-5) fell just short of its 12.5-win projection in 2025-26 — only the second time in nine years the franchise failed to beat preseason expectations — but the Bills have won at least 11 games for six consecutive years. Their 2026-27 consensus win total: 10.5.

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• Buffalo entered last year with -300 odds to win a sixth straight AFC East title — by far the biggest favorite in any division — yet finished second behind New England. It was just the second time in 22 years (and first time since 2008) that the preseason AFC East favorite failed to win the crown. Once again this year, the Bills (-150 at BetMGM) are the largest favorite to win a division.

• Josh Allen racked up 579 rushing yards in 2025-26, the seventh time in eight seasons that the Bills’ dual-threat quarterback eclipsed 500 rushing yards. Allen’s 2026-27 rushing projection at BetMGM: 500.5 yards.

Miami Dolphins

• In finishing 7-10 last season, Miami ended a five-year streak of winning at least eight games. This year, the Dolphins are projected for just 4.5 victories (tied with Arizona for fewest in the NFL). The last time Miami recorded fewer than five wins was 2017, when it went 1-15.

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• Going back to Week 4 of the 2023 campaign, the Dolphins are 5-19 SU and 8-16 ATS as an underdog. They’re a consensus 3.5-point underdog in Week 1 at the Raiders.

• Speaking of the Dolphins’ season-opening road trip to Las Vegas, here’s a related NFL betting trend to consider: Since 2007, Miami has opened on the road 12 times, and the under is 11-1. Consensus total in Week 1 at Las Vegas: 40.5.

New England Patriots

• Seven months after an embarrassing 29-13 loss to the Seahawks in Super Bowl 60, New England gets an immediate shot at redemption when it visits Seattle on Sept. 9. Unfortunately for the Patriots, they’re 1-4 SU and ATS in Week 1 since 2021.

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• The under has cashed in each of New England’s last eight season openers, with six of those contests featuring fewer than 37 combined points. The consensus total for the Pats’ rematch against the Seahawks: 44.5 points.

• One year after losing seven of nine games away from New England, the 2025-26 Patriots went 9-for-9 as a visitor (including an AFC Championship Game victory in Denver). Their 8-1 ATS road mark tied Seattle for best in the league.

New York Jets

• Once again, the Jets begin a season owning the longest playoff drought in North American professional sports, having not made the postseason since 2010. That ignominious streak is unlikely to end this year: At BetMGM, New York is an 8-to-1 long shot to make the playoffs. Only Miami (11-1) and Arizona (15-1) have worse odds.

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• The Jets have soared past their win-total projection just once in the past eight years. As was the case a season ago, New York’s 2026-27 win total is 5.5. Gang Green has cleared that number just four times in the past 12 seasons.

• The Jets last year went 0-6 against the AFC East both on the scoreboard and at the wagering counter. The franchise has now endured a decade of divisional futility, losing 47 of 60 AFC East games since 2016. New York’s corresponding point spread record: 20-39-1 — including 11-28-1 ATS versus Miami and New England combined.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

• Baltimore’s preseason win total of 11.5 matches the Los Angeles Rams for the highest in the NFL. In seven years since Lamar Jackson took over as quarterback, the Ravens have posted 12 or more victories three times: 2019 (14-3), 2023 (13-4) and 2024 (12-5).

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• Despite a disappointing 8-9 finish a year ago, the 2026-27 Ravens are odds-on favorites to win the AFC North (-118 at BetMGM), co-favorites to win the AFC (+500) and the co-third choice to win Super Bowl 61 (11-1). Since winning Super Bowl 47 in 2012, Baltimore has only captured four division titles and never returned to the Big Game.

• During the past two seasons, 24 of Baltimore’s 34 regular season games have flown over the total. The Ravens were 12-5 to the over both at home and on the road, and they and their opponents combined for more than 50 points 16 times.

Cincinnati Bengals

• Cincinnati has fallen short of its preseason win total expectations in each of the last three years and eight of the last 10. The Bengals enter 2026-27 with a consensus victory total of 10.5 — a number the franchise has hurdled just four times since 1989.

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• The Bengals are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in season openers this decade. This year, Cincinnati kicks off at home against Tampa Bay. A relevant NFL betting trend worth noting: The Buccaneers are riding a five-year Week 1 win streak (4-1 ATS).

• The Bengals’ AFC North kryptonite in recent years? Baltimore. Cincinnati has lost 11 of the last 15 meetings against the Ravens dating back to 2018, including five of six since 2023.

Cleveland Browns

• Back in 2023, Cleveland matched its 11-6 on-field record with an 11-6 point-spread record. The latter mark has turned out to be a major outlier, as the Browns are otherwise 37-62 ATS (37.4%) since 2019.

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• After posting at least six victories in six straight seasons from 2018-23, Cleveland managed only eight combined wins the past two years. So it’s no surprise that the Browns enter 2026-27 with one of the NFL’s lowest win-total projections at 5.5. However, they also enter the season with the league’s easiest schedule based on last year’s winning percentage.

• Going back to Week 12 of 2022, the under has cashed in 18 of Cleveland’s last 28 home games. Not only that, but 75% of those contests (21 of 28) ended with 40 combined points or fewer.

Pittsburgh Steelers

• The Steelers won the 2024-25 AFC North title with a 10-7 record, extending one of the most impressive NFL betting trends: Pittsburgh has gone 22 consecutive seasons without a losing record. Over this span, Pittsburgh has topped its win-total projection 16 times, including each of the last six years.

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• Oddsmakers clearly believe the Steelers’ winning ways will end in 2026-27, as the six-time Super Bowl champs have a preseason win total that ranges from 7.5 to 8.5. Number of times Pittsburgh has finished with fewer than eight victories since 1989: four.

• Despite finishing well above .500 on the field last year, the Steelers failed to turn a profit for bettors, going 8-9 ATS. It was just the second time in the last eight seasons that they had a negative point spread record. Pittsburgh hasn’t had an underwater ATS mark in back-to-back seasons since 2011 and 2012.

AFC South

Houston Texans

• Houston rolls into the year having registered double-digit victories in three straight seasons for the first time in franchise history. Not only did the Texans exceed their win total each time, they’ve done so in 14 of the last 20 seasons. Houston’s victory projection in 2026-27: 9.5 (same as a year ago).

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• While they’ve produced a middling 25-26 ATS record over the past three campaigns, the Texans have barked loudly as a late-season underdog. They’re 11-6 ATS from November onward (playoffs included), including nine outright upsets.

• Houston has been printing money for under bettors lately, as 62.1% of its games have come up short of the total the past four seasons (41-25-2 to the under). During this span, the under is also 16-8 when the Texans face AFC South foes.

Indianapolis Colts

• Indianapolis opened last season with a 30-8 rout of Miami as a 1.5-point home favorite. With that, the Colts snapped an 11-game Week 1 losing skid that had dated to 2013.

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• Even with last year’s blowout of the Dolphins, Indy remains just 2-13-1 SU and 3-12-1 ATS in openers since 2010. The Colts haven’t started 1-0 in back-to-back seasons since a three-year stretch from 2005-07.

• The Colts have failed to earn a postseason berth in nine of the last 11 years, including the last five in a row. It’s the franchise’s longest postseason absence since a seven-year drought from 1988-94. Indy’s odds to reach the playoffs in 2025: +140 to +170.

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Not only did Jacksonville go 13-4 last year and win its division for just the third time this century, it also won the NFL’s 2025-26 point spread crown with a 12-4-1 ATS mark. The Jaguars were money both at home (7-1 ATS) and as a favorite (7-0-1 ATS), and they enter this season riding an eight-game ATS winning streak.

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• Jacksonville easily topped its win-total expectation last year, for just the fourth time since 2008. In fact, the Jaguars have beaten their win total seven times since 2000 and only once in consecutive years (2004 and 2005). Their consensus victory projection this season: 8.5.

• Since the start of 2015, Jacksonville is 18-3-1 ATS against division rival Indianapolis (10-1 ATS at home). This year, the Jaguars and Colts square off in Week 8 (at Jacksonville) and Week 18 (at Indianapolis).

Tennessee Titans

• The Titans have strung together four straight sub-.500 campaigns, bottoming out at 3-14 each of the past two seasons. They’ve also crushed bettors the last two autumns, going 9-25 ATS overall (26.5%), including 4-13 ATS at home (23.5%).

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• Tennessee has stayed under its win total for four straight seasons, the first time that’s happened since the franchise relocated from Houston in 1997. That said, the wagering markets expect a better season in 2026-27, as the Titans’ consensus win total is 6.5.

• Despite starting 0-1 each of the last five years, Tennessee is a slight 2.5-point home favorite against the Jets in Week 1. Speaking of Week 1, the under is 6-0 this decade in Titans openers, with only one of those games clearing 42 combined points. BetMGM’s total for Jets-Titans: 39.5 points.

AFC West

Denver Broncos

• After missing the playoffs and falling short of their win-total forecast eight consecutive times from 2016-2023, the Broncos have reached the postseason the past two years while compiling a 24-10 record. However, oddsmakers expect serious regression in 2026-27, as Denver is pegged for 9.5 victories and barely favored to make the playoffs (-145 at BetMGM).

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• Since Week 8 of 2024, the Broncos are 12-1 SU and 9-4-1 ATS when playing in the Mile High City — including 6-1 ATS when favored by fewer than eight points.

• Denver quarterback Bo Nix has thrown for 3,775 and 3,931 yards in his first two NFL seasons. Much like his team, though, the betting market believes Nix will take a step back this year. His season-long passing yards prop at BetMGM: 3,475.5.

Kansas City Chiefs

• Entering last season, the Chiefs had won nine straight AFC West titles, recorded double-digit victories in 10 consecutive years and cleared their win total 10 times in 12 seasons. Then the bottom fell out, as K.C. went 6-11 SU and ATS in 2025-2026.

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• Despite immense on-field success in the first half of this decade, the Chiefs have not been profitable, going 44-55-2 ATS. Much of the point spread struggles have come later in the season: Since 2020, Kansas City is 20-36-1 ATS after Halloween, including 4-15-1 ATS the past two years.

• When most think about Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, they think “explosive offense.” Reality: Since the start of 2023, 68.6% of K.C.’s regular season games (35 of 51) have stayed under the total. What’s more, the under is 19-6 at Arrowhead Stadium the last three years.

Las Vegas Raiders

• In 23 seasons since losing Super Bowl 37, Las Vegas has fallen shy of its projected win total 15 times, including the last two years. On the bright side, the last time the Raiders failed to exceed their win-total expectations in three straight seasons was 2012-14.

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• Las Vegas hasn’t exactly lived up to its “Just Win, Baby!” rallying cry lately — except in Week 1. The Silver & Black are 7-3 SU and ATS in season openers since 2016, including six outright upsets. Ironically, all three losses came to Los Angeles-based teams (two to the Chargers, one to the Rams).

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• Conversely, the Raiders have consistently struggled to close out the first month of the season during this decade, going 3-9 SU and 2-10 ATS in Weeks 3 and 4. Las Vegas’ respective Week 3 and Week 4 opponents this year: New Orleans (home) and Kansas City (road).

Los Angeles Chargers

•  Not only did the Chargers go 11-6 in each of their first two seasons under head coach Jim Harbaugh, but they came through for bettors, posting a 21-11-2 ATS mark (65.6%).

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• Los Angeles also has gotten off to fast starts in the Harbaugh era, opening 2-0 SU and ATS both years. In all, the Bolts have won six of their last seven Week 1 contests, going 5-1-1 ATS. Expect L.A. to come out hot again in 2026-27, as its first two opponents are Arizona and Las Vegas — both at home.

• Injuries limited running back Omarion Hampton to just 545 rushing yards in nine games (six starts) during his rookie campaign in 2025-26. This year, BetMGM projects Hampton for 925.5 rushing yards — which brings this NFL betting trend into play: No Charger has topped 915 ground yards since Melvin Gordon a decade ago (997 yards in 2016).